The 2025 WM Phoenix Open

With the California Swing over, we say goodbye to wind and rain and head out into the desert party that is Scottsdale, AZ. Conditions should be ideal through rounds one and two with warm temps and low winds expected.

For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE

Brian Harman -126 ($7300) vs. Jordan Spieth +104 ($8700)

In our biggest discrepancy of the young season so far, oddsmakers have Brian Harman as a heavy favorite over Jordan Spieth in spite of a massive $1400 price difference in DraftKings DFS.

This is somewhat surprising considering Spieth’s exceptionally strong record at TPC Scottsdale compared to Harman’s. Though he’s never won the WM, Spieth has five top 10s in eight career starts in this event while Harman has just two top 25s in 11 trips to the desert.

Neither of these guys will be in too many DFS lineups this week according to our Nut Hut ownership projections available in the Discord. Our sources show Spieth around 8.7% and Harman closer to 5%, so you’re likely fine taking either guy.

Welcome to the Show
Get to know the 2025 PGA Tour Rookies

Thanks to recent eligibility changes from the PGA Tour, 45 newly-minted Tour Cards were handed out ahead of the 2025 season. Each week, we’ll spotlight a few up-and-comers whose names will be important to know as the year progresses.

• Brian Campbell - Santa Ana, CA

  Eight years after his rookie season on the PGA Tour, Brian Campbell regained his card after a strong 2024 Korn Ferry Tour season highlighted by three runner-up finishes including a sudden-death playoff loss at the Astara Golf Championship. The 31-year-old also qualified for last year’s U.S. Open at Pinehurst where he made the cut and finished T56. However, he’s yet to finish better than T51 through three starts in 2025. Campbell played collegiate golf at the University of Illinois (2011-15), where he won four times and was named 2014 Big Ten Player of the Year. A Mater Dei High School alum, he hails from Santa Ana, California.

• Harry Higgs - Overland Park, KS

  An eighth-place finish in the season-long KFT standings earned the Big Rig full-time status on the PGA TOUR once again. He won back-to-back starts at the AdventHealth Championship and Visit Knoxville Open in May, capturing both titles in sudden-death playoffs. His victory at the AdventHealth Championship in Kansas City, Missouri was deeply meaningful, as he grew up in nearby Overland Park, Kansas and played in the inaugural event in 2009 as a 17-year-old amateur. He previously graduated to the PGA TOUR via the Korn Ferry Tour Class of 2019, and he qualified for the FedExCup Playoffs in his first two seasons on TOUR (2019-20, 2020-21).

Over/Unders for the WM Phoenix Open

JT and Cantlay cashed for us in round one last week bringing our Underdog winning streak to 3 in a row.

Phoenix is all about power and putting, so I’m backing a pair of mashers who should have no problem shooting 3-under or better in what will be ideal conditions on Thursday.

Both DT and Kurt rank extremely high in our BTN model (Nos. 2 & 3 behind only Scheffler) as a result of their prowess off the tee and ability to capitalize on the gettable par-5s at TPC Scottsdale. Truth be told, these two could hit -3 just on those holes alone.

BTN Weekly Prop Play 
2025 Record: (0-3-1) [-3 units]

First Round 3-Ball: Davis Thompson (+110) v Christiaan Bezuidenhout v Brandt Snedeker

While the Underdog plays have been hot, we can’t say the same about the prop plays. To solve that, we’re riding with one of our parlay picks to get us a winner here.

As we mentioned, few players in this week’s field have games that fit TPC Scottsdale better than Thompson — and Sned and Bez damn sure don’t.

Sned can’t hit it past his shadow these days, and Bez isn’t much longer. The South African did finish T28 here last year after missing the cut in his WMPO debut in ‘23, but Snedeker hasn’t made a cut at the Phoenix Open since 2019.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

It happens every year — so hopefully we got it out of the way early at Pebble last week when Rory McIlroy rubbed the Chalk Bomb label in our face on his way to a dominant win at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

These things are bound to happen, and much like the game of golf itself, the Chalk Bomb is all about bouncing back — so here’s hoping for better from Scottsdale.

It won’t be easy, as a softer field is taking on the biggest party in golf and leaving us with fewer than usual options for big names to fade in DFS.

As always, the Chalk Bomb is limited to players projected at over 15% ownership in DFS according to our proprietary projections available in the Tour Junkies Discord. With Scottie Scheffler eating up nearly 40% ownership, only four other players are available to us at 15% or higher.

I gotta admit, none of these four are ideal candidates, but let’s see what the analytics from Bet the Number can uncover. They’ve identified the Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale as a textbook bomber’s paradise where length and accuracy off the tee allow certain players to dominate the getable par-5s.

With that in mind, BTN has honed in on the following stats to keep an eye on: SG: Off the Tee, SG: APP from 175-225 yards followed by SG: Putting from 8’-15’ on Overseed greens and Par-5 Scoring.*The putting stat is over the last 16 rounds while the rest cover the last 40 rounds.

With that in mind, here’s where this week’s Chalk Bomb ranks among the field of 132 in those stat categories:

• SG: Off the Tee — 43rd

• SG: APP from 175-225 Yards — 85th

• SG: Putting from 8’-15’ on Poa — 98th

• Par-5 Scoring — 65th

Even with those numbers, this is a scary fade. Few in the field this week have enjoyed better recent success at the WMPO than this guy. He enters this week with back-to-back finishes of T6 or better at TPC Scottsdale, including a T3 here last year.

It’s a bold call, but compared with other guys in the $10k range like Justin Thomas and Hideki Matsuyama, I find myself favoring them. So with an ownership percentage of 18%…

Sam Burns… you are the Chalk Bomb!

Even though they are wearing a mask, it seems like a surgeon sneezing in the middle of a procedure would still be extremely dangerous. Yet they really can’t control that. So that just scares me about surgeries.

Most of us just bet when the eye doctor ask if the glasses lens are better now or before. Then we have to live a long time with the consequences of that decision.

Spaghetti noodles are literally the worst noodle to pair with spaghetti sauce because they are ill equipped versus other noodles with actually being able to hold a sauce on the noodle.

Speaking of pasta. Why don’t we trust pasta boxes? Why must we have a window on the box that proves there’s pasta inside?

Alright folks! That’s all I got for the Waste Management Open this week. Stay well and good luck with all your PGA DFS lineups and bets. BOME!