The 2025 Valspar Championship

Lotta talk on the interwebs about the weather this week and understandably so. The books have already adjusted, but it may be worth a second look in DFS at the AM/PM wave as they appear to be getting the better wind conditions over rounds one and two.

For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE

Keith Mitchell -134 ($7800) vs. Ben Griffin +108 ($7900)

We’ve got our eyes on the $7k range for this week’s matchup where the sharp overseas books have Keith Mitchell heavily favored in a 72-hole matchup against the slightly more expensive Ben Griffin.

Interestingly, these two actually tied at last year’s Valspar with a four-round total of -4, good enough for T17. Other than that, Griffin has just one other start at Innisbrook — a T45 in 2023, while Mitchell has finishes of 69th and T11 in two prior starts.

Counter to the books’ thinking, Griffin is the more popular play this week according to our Nut Hut Ownership Projections available in the Discord. Our models have him just over 10% owned while Mitchell is closer to 8%.

Welcome to the Show
Get to know the 2025 PGA Tour Rookies

Thanks to recent eligibility changes from the PGA Tour, 45 newly-minted Tour Cards were handed out ahead of the 2025 season. Each week, we’ll spotlight a few up-and-comers whose names will be important to know as the year progresses.

• Karl Vilips - Australia

  The first rookie winner of the 2025 season, Australia’s own Karl Vilips’ rise to PGA TOUR stardom has been meteoric. He graduated from Stanford just last year ranking tenth in the PGA TOUR University Rankings, earning immediate status on the Korn Ferry Tour, which he took full advantage of. Making his first pro start last July, the 23-year-old finished T13, T15 and 2nd in his first three starts before winning the Utah Championship a month after making his professional debut. He earned his TOUR Card via his 19th-place finish in the season-long KFT points list despite making just 10 starts. He began his inaugural PGA TOUR campaign with made cuts at the Mexico Open and the Cognizant Classic before winning the Puerto Rico Open. Born in Australia, Vilips spent much of his childhood in Florida and now resides in Jacksonville.

• Jackson Suber - Tampa, FL

  The 25-year-old earned his first TOUR Card thanks to a steady 2024 season on the Korn Ferry Tour highlighted by four top-10 finishes including a T9 at the season-ending KFT Championship. An Ole Miss alum, Suber played four seasons for the Rebels, amassing five career wins and earning a 2022 All-America Second Team selection en route to a 9th-place finish in the 2022 PGA TOUR University Rankings. Suber started 2025 with a bang, firing a final-round 65 at the Sony Open for a T6 finish in his PGA TOUR debut – but the rookie has yet to finish better than T42 in five events since.

Over/Unders for the Valspar Championship

I guess the weather has spooked the bookies at Underdog — as of Wednesday morning, there are no 1st Rd O/Us, only finish position plays.

These are far from my favorites, but we’ll make do with this three-legger. Fleetwood is a walking T20 these days — you have to go all the way back to last year’s Open for his last finish worse than T22. JT is also in good form and has five top-20 finishes in seven starts at Copperhead.

Lastly, Tom Kim has been sputtering over the last month, but more importantly, this will be his first-ever start at the Valspar. Even with the ‘better’ half of the draw, I think he’ll face a steep learning curve at what is one of the toughest tracks on the PGA TOUR.

BTN Weekly Prop Play 
2025 Record: (0-9-2) [-9 units]

Tournament 3-Ball: Sepp Straka (+120) v Adam Scott v C. Bezuidenhout

Can we count a push as an improvement? I suppose so… but we’re somehow STILL looking for a first win of the season….

Aside from Bez’s T9 here last year, none of the trio has finished better than T16 in this event despite multiple chances for each. So with course history not much of a factor, I’ll lean into Sepp’s hot form and knack for tough golf courses to beat the other two over four rounds.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

ALRIGHT — lesson learned… we’re not fading Rory anymore.

Almost every other Chalk Bomb of the year has missed the cut or come close to it, but the two times we fade Rors, he wins outright. Touché.

But the season’s not over, and nor is the Florida swing, so let’s get back in the saddle this week and find a fade at everyone’s favorite ‘hard course’ — the Copperhead at Innisbrook.

Host of the Valspar Championship under various names since the first event in 2000, Copperhead routinely ranks as one of the most difficult stops on the PGA TOUR circus thanks in large part to the “Snake Pit” — the ominously-named finishing stretch comprising the par-4 16th, par-3 17th and par-4 18th holes.

All three played over par in 2024, and the 16th finished as the 27th most difficult hole on TOUR in 2024 with a scoring average of 4.294.

Naturally, the pros will struggle a bit more this week — but who among the “favorites” might struggle the most?

As always, the Chalk Bomb is limited to players projected at over 15% ownership in DFS according to our proprietary projections available in the Tour Junkies Discord. A somewhat surprisingly strong field this week has provided eight eligible names.

On a tough course like this, everyone is going to make bogeys — but the successful players will be those who consistently avoid trouble with fairways and greens.

For more insight into what’s required at this week’s venue, we turn to our friends at Bet the Number who have identified a few key data points to hone in on as we look for a name to fade.

This week, BTN is highlighting SG: Off the Tee and Hit Fairway %, followed by Greens in Regulation % and SG: Putting from 4’-10’ on Overseed greens. All stats are over the last 24 rounds.

That said, here’s where this week’s Chalk Bomb ranks among the field of 156 in those stat categories:

• SG: OTT — 46th

• Fairway Percentage — 52nd

• GIR Percentage — 20th

• SG: Putting from 4’-10’ on Overseed greens— 96th

It brings me no pleasure to fade this guy, and I’m honestly bullish on him looking ahead to the rest of the year. But the numbers don’t lie, and other similarly-owned players just have fewer weaknesses in their game headed into this difficult setup.

Perhaps most importantly — the Chalk Bomb has never played here before… the idea of him taking on this beast of a course for the first time fresh off shooting a 78 at Sawgrass has me feeling uneasy.

So at $9300 on DraftKings and an ownership barely under 15%, I’m steering clear of Will Zalatoris as this week’s Chalk Bomb!

I don’t like the word “queue”. It’s just a bunch of wasted letters when all we really need is one letter. Plus that would make me actually remember how to spell it properly.

I wonder what bald people put for their hair color on their drivers’ licenses.

When a bus driver is the last person off the bus, who closes the bus door?

Is lasagna technically just spaghetti-flavored cake?

Alright folks! That’s all I got for the Valspar Championship. Stay well and good luck with all your PGA DFS lineups and bets. BOME!