The 2025 Valero Texas Open

Severe storms passed through Texas early in the week which has softened the course somewhat, but the inclement weather isn’t quite over. The opening round should see ideal scoring conditions, but thunderstorms and higher winds are expected as we head into the weekend.

For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE

Akshay Bhatia -121 ($9300) vs. Keegan Bradley -102 ($9500)

We’re looking at the $9k range this week, where the sharp overseas oddsmakers favor Akshay Bhatia in a 72-hole matchup against Keegan Bradley despite a steeper DFS price tag on the United States captain.

Akshay is of course the defending Texas Open Champ with his out-of-nowhere win at TPC San Antonio in 2024. That was just his third start in this event following a T46 in 2023 and a missed cut in 2021. As for Keegan, this will be his seventh Texas Open, and his record here shows five made cuts, including two top-10 finishes.

Our Nut Hut Ownership Projections available in the Discord show that the public disagrees with the oddsmakers on this one. Our models show Akshay as the fourth-most popular DFS play this week at nearly 22% ownership compared to around 18% for Keegan.

Welcome to the Show
Get to know the 2025 PGA Tour Rookies

Thanks to recent eligibility changes from the PGA Tour, 45 newly-minted Tour Cards were handed out ahead of the 2025 season. Each week, we’ll spotlight a few up-and-comers whose names will be important to know as the year progresses.

• John Pak - Scotch Plains, NJ

  The Tallahassee resident secured his first PGA TOUR card in his second Korn Ferry Tour season, highlighted by a victory at the Compliance Solutions Championship. He began 2024 with poor conditional status but played his way up the priority ranking with a T3 finish as a Monday qualifier at the Club Car Championship. The former No. 1 player in the inaugural PGA TOUR University Class of 2021, Pak rebounded from a tough 2022 season by winning the Elk Ridge Saskatchewan Open and finishing No. 8 on the 2023 PGA TOUR Canada Order of Merit. A decorated four-year player at Florida State, he swept all three NCAA Division I national player of the year awards in 2021. He has one top-50 finish through seven starts in 2025, a T17 at the Mexico Open.

• Kris Ventura - Norway

  Ventura earned full PGA TOUR status for the first time since 2022 thanks to a strong Korn Ferry Tour season where he secured his return to the big leagues with a runner-up finish at the season-ending Korn Ferry Tour Championship. The Oklahoma State alum was part of the Cowboys’ dominant 2018 NCAA Championship-winning team, playing alongside Viktor Hovland and Matt Wolff. Born in Mexico and raised in Norway, Ventura represented Norway in last year's Paris Olympics, finishing T43. His 2025 highlights include a T4 at the Farmers and a T25 in the Mexico Open.

Over/Unders for the Valero Texas Open

Congrats to Michael Kim for securing his Masters invite last week, but he screwed us by a stroke to kill our round one parlay. With one last ticket to ANGC on the line this week, we’re feeling lucky with a little three-legger.

Don’t let last year’s winning score fool you — any round in the 60s here is a great score, so we’re leaning over in 2/3 plays. I hate to say it, but Kisner’s got one foot in the Champions Tour. He has three missed cuts and a T70 through four starts in 2025, and +2 on a track where his best round is a 70 seems realistic.

As for the Englishmen, Tommy loves a difficult track and is in great form headed into the Masters while Fitz is headed in the opposite direction. The latter did snag a T10 here last year, but that was thanks to a final-round 67 on a great scoring day for the entire field. He posted rounds of 71, 74 and 70 through the first three days.

BTN Weekly Prop Play 
2025 Record: (1-9-3) [-8 units]

Top Continental European: Ludvig Aberg (+185)

Just like the UD play, Kim boned us by a stroke to leave us with a push against Finau last week. But after the start we’ve had, I suppose it could’ve been worse.

Had to look hard for a play this week — thus the somewhat strange prop. Ludvig’s been resting since the PLAYERS and will be looking to erase that MC with a strong performance before heading to Augusta. There are technically 14 names he’ll have to beat to cash this bet, but the next-shortest odds are Victor Perez (+900) and Thorbjorn Olesen (+900). It feels like a top-20 probably beats this group, and Aberg is -150 to do that, so I like the juicier odds here.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

Tony Finau continued our hot streak in this section of the column with a T32 as our Chalk Bomb for the Houston Open, and we now turn to the last tune-up before the year’s first major.

The TOUR is still in Texas, though even further west, as San Antonio plays host to professional golf and the men’s Final Four this weekend. Buckle up.

TPC San Antonio returns as the host venue as it has since 2010. The 7400-yard par 72 isn’t overly penal — in fact, there’s little punishment for inaccuracy off the tee — yet this track remains one of the more challenging tracks on the golf calendar.

Yes, both Akshay Bhatia and Denny McCarthy reached -20 last year, but they putted their faces off, and third place was a distant nine strokes behind them. The cut line in 2024 was actually over par if that’s any further indication of what this golf course is capable of.

So, looking at this year’s edition, who’s a likely player to fail the test that TPC San Antonio presents?

As always, the Chalk Bomb is limited to players projected at over 15% ownership in DFS according to our proprietary projections available in the Tour Junkies Discord. With many of the top stars resting up for Augusta, the ownership is pretty evenly spread across the favorites as we have a whopping 12 players that meet our criteria.

As they do every week, our friends at Bet the Number have scouted every inch of TPC San Antonio to come up with a few notable numbers to keep in mind with our handicap.

This week, BTN highlights Driving Distance from Edge of Fairway (i.e., when you miss, how big of a miss is it?) and SG: Approach from 75-125 yards, followed by SG: Around the Green and Bogey Avoidance. These stats are all calculated over the last 30 rounds.

With that in mind, here’s where this week’s Chalk Bomb ranks among the field of 147 in those stat categories:

• Driving Distance from Edge of Fairway — 109th

• SG: Approach from 75-125 — 81st

• SG: Around the Green — 58th

• Bogey Avoidance— 97th

It will come as no surprise that this guy is capable of blowing it all over the map off the tee, (hence the 109 ranking), but I personally found the short game struggles surprising for a player who is famous for his artistry around the greens.

I’m hesitant to fade this player in the middle of a somewhat resurgent season for him, especially given the native Texan’s record at this event: a win and three top 10s in eight starts.

He’s played some good golf as of late, but his volatility makes him a risky play, especially as the second-most popular play this week with an ownership projection of 24.5%

I’ll be rooting for him in Augusta next week, but for now…

Jordan Spieth, you are the Chalk Bomb!

Honestly, sometimes I get a little embarrassed when I can’t instantly tell which is the former and which is the latter.

The best first wish to make when you find a genie is asking what the best other two wishes should be.

A crocodile has a massive advantage over a lion in deep water, but the lion wins on dry land. Therefore, there must exist a depth of water that makes it an even fight.

Alright folks! That’s all I got for the Valero Texas Open. Just a few more sleeps until the best week of the year! Stay well and good luck with all your PGA DFS lineups and bets. BOME!