The 2025 U.S. Open

Recent rain has softened the course up considerably, and with little wind to speak of in round one, Thursday may present the most gettable conditions we’ll see all week. The gusts pick up somewhat on Friday, and hot temperatures should see Oakmont firm up as we head into the weekend.

For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE

Joaquin Niemann -125 ($8600) vs. Tommy Fleetwood -105 ($8800)

As usual with a major championship field, we’ve got some big names in the $8k range where the sharp oddsmakers have Joaquin Niemann favored over Tommy Fleetwood in a 72-hole matchup despite a slight DFS discount on the Chilean.

Neither player teed it up at Oakmont when the U.S. Open was last here in 2016, but both have plenty of experience with “golf’s sternest test”. Tommy Lad notably has three top-5 finishes in nine career U.S. Open appearances, while Joaquin has yet to finish higher than T23 — though he has made the cut in 4/5 starts.

According to our Nut Hut Ownership Projections available in the Discord, these two are among the most popular DFS plays this week — especially Niemann, who comes in as the fourth-highest owned at over 23%. Meanwhile, Fleetwood is up there himself at over 16% ownership.

Welcome to the Show
Get to know the 2025 PGA Tour Rookies

Thanks to recent eligibility changes from the PGA Tour, 45 newly-minted Tour Cards were handed out ahead of the 2025 season. Each week, we’ll spotlight a few up-and-comers whose names will be important to know as the year progresses.

Takumi Kanaya - Japan

Kanaya earned his 2025 PGA TOUR card by finishing solo third at the Final Stage of Q‑School, securing full status after a breakout season on the Japan Golf Tour. The former World No. 1 amateur boasts seven Japan Golf Tour victories and was named 2024 money‑list champion and MVP . At age 26, he’s already appeared in 12 major championships, though his only made cut came in his major debut at the 2019 Masters. He’s missed the cut in over half of his starts in 2025, but he did have a solid stretch in the Spring where he followed up a T18 in the Zurich with a T5 at the Byron Nelson.

Matthew Riedel - Houston, TX

One of the youngest rising stars in the game, 24-year-old Matthew Riedel secured his first PGA TOUR card thanks to a clutch performance at Q-School last December, where he finished tied for fourth. Last season marked Riedel’s first as a professional, as the former Vanderbilt Commodore turned pro in early 2024, bolstered by a No. 4 ranking in the PGA TOUR University standings. His meteoric rise has stalled somewhat in the big leagues as he’s missed the cut in 7/13 starts in 2025 with a top finish of T26 in the Puerto Rico Open in March.

Over-Unders for the U.S. Open

I know it’s a U.S. Open. It’s gonna be hard… but will it be that hard?

Everyone on the ground has mentioned how soft the course has played early in the week. I fully expect Oakmont to be at full strength come Rounds 3 & 4, but it wouldn’t shock me if the first-round lead is 67 or better. Who that might be is another question, but with the course as gettable as it will be all week, why can’t the two favorites shoot even par? (Or in Bryson’s case, +1 will be enough)

These two are in the form of their lives right now, and that’s saying something considering they’re both multi-major champions. Sometimes, the players are just that good — so I’m backing the very best to show us what they’re made of, at least until things firm up over the weekend.

BTN Weekly Prop Play 
2025 Record: (5-14-3) [-9 units]

Tournament Matchup: Thorbjorn Olesen (-110) v Adam Scott

All signs point toward Thorbjorn Olesen with an edge over Adam Scott this week. Olesen is in much better form across all SG categories except around the green, where he’s still gaining strokes. He’s scoring better and hitting more fairways and greens. Over in the BTN Model, we can see he’s more accurate off the tee, gaining strokes from the two important approach buckets of 175-250 and 100-140, putting well, and has strong bogey avoidance. Adam Scott, on the other hand, is only showing green on strokes gained around the green. He hasn’t been very accurate with the driver and is struggling in both approach buckets highlighted in this week’s BTN Model. He’s not necessarily in bad form right now, but his stats aren’t painting a great picture for success at this difficult track, especially up against Olesen.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR ignore the play. 

America’s national championship is here, and with it, a return to perhaps the nation's hardest golf course for a tournament long known as golf’s sternest test.

Oakmont Country Club is hosting the U.S. Open for a record 10th time, and this venue has become synonymous with this championship and its daunting reputation.

We all know the story by now — long rough, long holes (have you heard about the 300-yd par 3?) and wicked fast greens make this track the most difficult course the players will see all year.

Everyone will struggle, but who among the popular picks might struggle more than expected? That’s what we’re trying to find out. As always, the Chalk Bomb is limited to players projected at over 15% ownership in DFS according to our proprietary projections available in the Tour Junkies Discord.

The U.S. Open features one of, if not THE strongest field in professional golf, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise to see we have plenty of big-name players to choose from as our fade for this week.

To narrow that down to one, we begin with the model that our friends at Bet the Number have dialed in based on years of shot data at Oakmont and other U.S. Opens, as well as their observations from on-site this week.

This week, they’re keying in on the following stats: Driving Accuracy, Strokes Gained Approach from 175-250 Yards, Strokes Gained Approach from 100-140 Yards, Strokes Gained Putting from 5’-10’ on Bent Greens and Bent/Poa and Bogey Avoidance. All stats are calculated over the last 36 rounds, with the exception of putting, which is over the last 20.

Note the specific distances for approach play and putting. From the fairway, many long-range approaches will be required — but those who find the thick, ‘hack it out’ rough off the tee will be forced to lay up, presenting a much shorter approach shot into the green.

Once on the putting surface, Oakmont's notorious greens rarely make for an easy two-putt, so being able to consistently hole the sweaty 5-10 footers for par will be key.

That said, here’s where this week’s Chalk Bomb ranks among the field of 156 in those categories:

Driving Accuracy — 102nd
SG: Approach from 175-250 — 47th
SG: Approach from 100-140 — 19th
SG: Putting on Bent/Poa from 5’-10’ — 55th
Bogey Avoidance — 6th

For me, the biggest red flag is the driving accuracy number. When he’s on, this player is the best driver of the golf ball in the world — trouble is, he’s been ice cold with the big stick as of late.

You can blame it on the new driver — he certainly is. But the fact of the matter is, he hasn’t been the same player since his driver was ruled ‘non-conforming’ following a test in the lead-up to the PGA Championship. Maybe he’s figured it out by now, but I can’t take that chance with $12,400 on DraftKings to find out.

He’s the second-most expensive player this week, and for good reason. He’s already burned me twice this year, winning outright as the Chalk Bomb at Pebble and TPC Sawgrass before completing the career Grand Slam in Augusta.

But with a wayward driver and seemingly little interest in chasing more history now that he has all four majors in his trophy cabinet…

Rory McIlroy, you are the Chalk Bomb!

Still can’t believe we trust an open slot of exposed wires and crumbs to sit uncovered on the counter all day. Not one person ever cleans one in its lifespan. Toasters are wild.

I don’t get people who buy concert t-shirts. They’re always 100% cotton and universally ugly. We’ve got to be better humans.

Being an adult means confidently walking into a store, buying Pedialyte, and making no eye contact. You know what you did.

There’s no reason to save every wine bag I’ve ever received. And yet, I treat them like family heirlooms.

Alright folks—that’s all I’ve got for United States Open. Stay well, and good luck with all your PGA DFS lineups and bets. BOME!