The 2025 Travelers Championship

Like at Oakmont last week, a wet Spring and recent rains should make course conditions somewhat getable, but watch out for gusty breezes starting Thursday afternoon and into Friday morning. If this forecast holds up, there could be a real advantage for the AM/PM wave.

For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE

Collin Morikawa -125 ($10,200) vs. Xander Schauffele +103 ($10,800)

For this week’s signature event, we’re going big in the $10k range where the sharp line makers have Collin Morikawa heavily favored in a 72-hole matchup against Xander Schauffele despite a hefty $600 price difference in DraftKings DFS.

With ten prior Travelers starts between them, neither player lacks experience around TPC River Highlands, but Xander actually has a much better record. In six trips, he’s posted just one finish outside the top 20, and that includes his outright W in 2022. Morikwa has two MCs in four trips, but did bag a T13 last year - his best finish at this event.

According to our Nut Hut Ownership Projections available in the Discord, these two are the most popular DFS plays this week besides one Scottie Scheffler. Collin and Xander are coming in at Nos. 2 and 3, respectively, each with an ownership just over 18%.

Over-Unders for the Travelers Championship

Last elevated event of the year, so why not take a big swing? TPC River Highlands can offer up some low scores (Scottie’s line is set at 65.5). This par-70 demands accuracy rather than power, so I’m rolling with a few snipers to take advantage of the soft and mild conditions expected Thursday morning.

The afternoon is a slightly different situation, as higher winds and gusts upwards of 20 mph are expected, so I’m counting on Fitz to struggle and fail to hit that -3 number.

BTN Weekly Prop Play 
2025 Record: (5-15-3) [-10 units]

Tournament Matchup: Akshay Bhatia (+110) v Sungjae Im

This is one of the more intriguing matchups on the board, with both players showing flashes but lacking consistency. The BTN Matchup Tool doesn’t give a clear edge either way, which makes the even-money value on Akshay more appealing.

Sungjae’s approach game has completely fallen off a cliff. He’s lost strokes on approach in 11 straight starts, a staggering statistic for a player of his caliber. That’s not just a dip in form, that’s a full-blown trend. Akshay, on the other hand, has been trending positively with his irons and brings a lefty shot shape that suits the course setup well, especially with the number of right-pin locations and mid-iron shots expected.

Check out Bet the Number’s full breakdown here

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR ignore the play. 

The final elevated event of the 2025 PGA TOUR season is here. For the last time this year, the entire field of 72 will compete in all four rounds of this no-cut event for an enlarged purse of $20 million.

As always, the Travelers takes place at the celebrated TPC River Highlands, a venue widely regarded as one of the best regular stops on the PGA TOUR. It’s a track that has offered up its fair share of birdies and exciting finishes over the last few years, and we can expect more of the same this week.

As befitting a Signature Event, 45 of the world’s top 50 are teeing it up, so we have no shortage of star names to consider fading as the Chalk Bomb for the Travelers. As always, the Chalk Bomb is limited to players projected at over 15% ownership in DFS according to our proprietary projections available in the Tour Junkies Discord.

To identify who that unlucky player will be, we begin with our pals at Bet the Number and their trusty course-specific model built on thousands of data points from TPC River Highlands and their own in-person analysis.

This week, their model is keying in on: Strokes Gained Off the Tee, Strokes Gained Approach from 125-180 Yards, Strokes Gained Putting from 5’-10’ on Bent Greens and Bent/Poa and Birdie or Better Percentage. All stats are calculated over the last 30 rounds, with the exception of putting, which is over the last 20.

Here’s where this player ranks in the field of 72 in those categories:

SG: Off the Tee — 40th
SG: Approach from 125-180 — 29th
SG: Putting on Bent/Poa from 5’-10’ — 24th
Birdie or Better % — 28th

While none of those numbers are particularly bad, they’re not very strong — especially for a field this small.

I love this player’s game, and my heart hates fading him here, but it’s hard to imagine this player contending for his first-ever PGA TOUR win this week. This course should fit his game much better than his record suggests (15, MC, T46, T13), and that’s all the more reason to leave him out of lineups.

Priced at $8900 on DK, there are certainly cheaper options, and as the fifth-highest-owned player at just over 15% ownership, there are less chalky options as well.

So with that said…

Tommy Fleetwood, you are the Chalk Bomb!

I use the phrase 'don’t put all your eggs in one basket' pretty often. It really makes you think—were baskets just a major egg risk at one point in history?

Sometimes it’s so hard to fall asleep because you just can’t find the perfect position. Then, once you finally do, it’s total BS—you don’t want to get up out of that perfect position it took you all damn night to get into.

I don’t know why I feel the need to save every single hex key that comes with anything I assemble. But I do.

Alright folks—that’s all I’ve got for the Travelers Championship. Stay well, and good luck with all your PGA DFS lineups and bets. BOME!