The 2025 Texas Children's Houston Open

We could be in for some “conditions” this week in Houston to kick off the Texas swing with Augusta right around the corner. With rain and thunderstorms in the forecast, there’s every chance we could get a delay, so it might be a bad idea to make any plays solely based on perceived wave advantages.

For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE

Aaron Rai -135 ($9800) vs. JJ Spaun +105 ($9900)

Coming off his runner-up finish at the PLAYERS, JJ Spaun is an underdog to Aaron Rai in a 72-hole matchup according to the early line setters overseas.

This could well be a result of course history as Rai has been red hot here at Memorial Park with back-to-back T7s and a T19 in his three starts here. Meanwhile, JJ has only played this event twice with his best finish a T36 last year.

Our Nut Hut Ownership Projections available in the Discord show that the public agrees with the oddsmakers on this one — our models show Rai as the fourth-most popular DFS play this week at nearly 17% ownership compared to just 9% for JJ Spaun.

Welcome to the Show
Get to know the 2025 PGA Tour Rookies

Thanks to recent eligibility changes from the PGA Tour, 45 newly-minted Tour Cards were handed out ahead of the 2025 season. Each week, we’ll spotlight a few up-and-comers whose names will be important to know as the year progresses.

• Jeremy Paul - Germany

  Thanks to a win at the 2024 Bahamas Great Exuma Classic, Jeremy Paul earned his first PGA TOUR Card and became the fifth German player to earn full status. His steady progression on the Korn Ferry Tour included finishes of No. 56 in 2023 and No. 37 in 2022 after regaining status via Q-School. A University of Colorado alum, Paul turned pro in 2017 and spent three seasons on PGA TOUR Canada before breaking through. His identical twin, Yannik, is a DP World Tour winner. Now based in Scottsdale, Arizona, the 31-year-old has two top-25 finishes in his first six starts on TOUR -- a T25 at the Mexico Open and a T16 in Puerto Rico.

• Mason Andersen - Queen Creek, AZ

  Andersen earned his PGA TOUR card after two seasons on the Korn Ferry Tour, clinching PGA TOUR status with a victory at the 117th Visa Argentina Open. The win also secured him a spot in the 2024 Open Championship at Royal Troon where he missed the cut. The 26-year-old previously finished No. 36 on the 2023 Korn Ferry Tour Points List as a rookie. A five-year standout at Arizona State, Andersen won twice individually and earned 2022 All-America Third Team honors. So far in 2025, he's made two cuts in six starts with his best finish of T26 at the Puerto Rico Open.

Over/Unders for the Houston Open

I gotta admit, this isn’t my most confident UD pick of all time — it’s hard to make a first-round play when we’re not sure what the weather will do to tee times…

With that in mind, we’re keeping it tight with a simple two-legger — counting on the consistency of Michael Kim and the complete lack thereof with Sahith. The cut at Houston has been right around even par the last few years, and with wind and rain in the forecast, 1-under 69 could be a very good score.

BTN Weekly Prop Play 
2025 Record: (1-9-2) [-8 units]

Round 1 Matchup: Michael Kim (-110) v Tony Finau

AT LAST — the goose egg in the W column is no more. Time to start a streak…

I know Tony loves this track (T2, W last two years), but we can’t ignore his recent (and infrequent) play as of late. Finau has played fewer than half of the events since Pebble, and while his 2025 resume features three top 15 finishes, it shows just as many missed cuts.

The opposite is true of Kim who’s made seven-straight starts since the Farmers, racking up five top-13 finishes before cooling off slightly the last two weeks. It just feels like these two could be going in opposite directions as the pressure builds toward the Masters. Kim currently sits 52nd in the OWGR — two spots away from earning a trip down Magnolia Lane. The cutoff is this week, so if he fails to crack the top 50 as of Sunday night, his only hope will be to win the Valero.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

Last week at the Valspar marked probably the best week this newsletter’s had all year with two W’s in the Underdog and Prop sections and a T47 from our Chalk Bomb, Will Zalatoris.

Like the pros, yours truly is rounding into form with Augusta right around the corner…

But before we can start dreaming of Magnolia Lane, we gotta get through the Texas two-step of tournaments that starts this week in Houston.

Memorial Park Golf Course returns as host and remains one of the rare muni tracks to host the best players in the world on the PGA TOUR. As a par-70 at nearly 7500 yards, it’s one of the longest tracks on the schedule, and it tends to be one of the more challenging venues as a result. The cut line has been over par in three of the four years that Memorial Park has hosted this event.

So, who among the popular picks could miss the weekend this time?

As always, the Chalk Bomb is limited to players projected at over 15% ownership in DFS according to our proprietary projections available in the Tour Junkies Discord. Any field that features Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy will naturally see those two eat up plenty of ownership, but there are five additional names who meet our threshold.

Bombers, long-iron snipers and guys with plenty of experience in the Texas winds will have an edge this week, but let’s take a deeper look at the underlying data at Memorial Park with our data analysts at Bet the Number.

This week, BTN is focusing on Driver Ball Speed and SG: Approach from 150-200 yards, followed by SG: Around the Green from Fairway Lies and SG: Putting on Overseed Greens. Per their model, the first two stats are calculated over the last 40 rounds, while the final two are from the last 30.

With that in mind, here’s where this week’s Chalk Bomb ranks among the field of 156 in those stat categories:

• Driver Ball Speed — 36th

• SG: Approach from 150-200 — 65th

• SG: Around the Green from Fairway — 16th

• SG: Putting on Overseed greens— 94th

Unsurprisingly, there’s a lot about this guy’s game that fits this track well — after all, he has a T2 and a win in his last two trips here. But the underlying data shows that which anyone who’s watched this guy over the last month can see: his game is just a bit off at the moment.

Sure, he finished T5 at the Genesis… only four shots behind the leader thanks to an opening round 76. There was also a T13 at Pebble, but in his classic non-competing fashion, as he was nine strokes off first. The other four of his six starts since opening day at the Sentry add up to three missed cuts and a T36.

He’s not in terrible form, but he’s not playing well enough for me to fade some other big names over him — especially at over 20% ownership.

So without further ado… Tony Finau, you are the Chalk Bomb!

It’s interesting to me that we are more inclined to update our computers when shutting them down as opposed to starting them up.

Do you eat or drink a popsicle?

Where do birds live before they build their nest?

Alright folks! That’s all I got for the Texas Children’s Houston Open. Stay well and good luck with all your PGA DFS lineups and bets. BOME!