The 2025 Sentry Preview

As always, the TOUR kicks off on the islands where Hawaiian breezes are usually a factor. That will certainly be the case in Rd. 1 with gusts reaching 20 mph in the afternoon before they settle down on Friday.

For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE

Robert MacIntyre -137 ($8200) vs. Wyndham Clark +113 ($8800)

This week, we’re honing in on a discrepancy in the $8k range where the sharp overseas oddsmakers have Bobby Mac as a heavy favorite over Wyndham Clark in a four-day head-to-head despite a $600 DFS price difference in the other direction.

MacIntyre is making his first start at Kapalua, but Clark doesn’t have much more experience on this track as he returns for just his second start in the Sentry after a T29 here last year.

According to our Nut Hut ownership projections available in the Discord, Clark is the more popular play this week coming in around 14%, while MacIntyre might make for a good sleeper play at closer to 10% ownership.

Over/Unders for the Sentry

We’re kicking off the new year with a bold, uninsured 3-legger at Kapalua — counting on these guys to basically beat the scoring average that’s been around -4 over the past four seasons.

Teasing the prop play below a little bit, Sungjae Im plays some of his best golf at Kapalua (especially in Rd. 1) and I expect that to continue this week. Meanwhile, Hoge and Kirk’s totals just seem a tad high on such an easy course. Granted, Kapalua is a rare par-73, but these two have fared well here in the past.

Hoge has matched or beaten this number in 6/8 rounds here, and let’s not forget Kirk won this event last year with four rounds of 67 or better.

BTN Weekly Prop Play

Sungjae Im Under 67.5 Rd. 1 (+110 on DraftKings)

Sungjae loves him some Kapalua, especially on opening day — where he’s never shot worse than 67 in four prior starts. Like most in this week’s field, he hasn’t played a ton of competitive golf over the last couple of months, but he should be feeling good after a T9 at the Hero in December which marked his fourth straight top-15 finish to end 2024.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

I always find it hard to think about golf in the dark days of December/early January when bowl games are in full swing and the NFL playoffs are right around the corner. The start of the PGA TOUR season seems to sneak up on me amid the rush of the holidays, but it’s always a pleasant surprise.

Without warning, the 2025 season kickstarts with a “signature” event that annually features one of the best fields of the golf calendar — the Sentry.

60 of last year’s winners and other top players have arrived in Maui for the start of the brand-new campaign, and it’s up to us to find one worth fading for the first Chalk Bomb of 2025.

There’s no shortage of big names to choose from as 10 players meet our eligibility requirements this week. As always, the Chalk Bomb is limited to players projected at over 15% ownership in DFS according to our proprietary projections available in the Tour Junkies Discord.

Kapalua is a familiar track and one that our pals at Bet the Number have plenty of data for. Based on past results and years of on-site scouting, the experts have put together a model this week that keys in on SG: ARG, SG: APP with wedges/short irons and SG: Putting from 5 - 15 feet. Looking at these numbers, one superstar surprisingly stands out as a potential fade.

Here’s his ranking in the field of 60 this week:

• SG: ARG — 57th

• SG: Approach from 90-140 yards — 21st

• SG: Putting from 5-15 feet — 36th

For a guy whose game seems to fit any course, his track record at Kapalua is a bit surprising — even if it is a small sample size. Making his debut here in 2024, the Chalk Bomb finished T47 last year and will certainly be looking to improve on that record this week.

As the fourth-most expensive player in DraftKings DFS at $9800, you need a great week from this guy to justify the price point and the chalky 20% ownership, so I’m taking my chances elsewhere in the $9k range and naming Ludvig Aberg as the first Chalk Bomb of 2025!

Out of Office Re: Pontificate with Pat,

Hello,

I am out of the office this week with limited access to email. Please direct all inquiries, betting questions, complaints, insults and potential future pontifications to DB.

Bome,

Pat Perry