The 2025 Rocket Classic

Rain early in the week has softened things up, and with virtually no wind expected on Thursday, we could see some low scores in Rd. 1 before the wind picks up headed into the weekend.

For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE

Rickie Fowler -127 ($8700) vs. Keith Mitchell -103 ($8800)

We’ve got our eye on the upper $8k range this week, where the sharp line setters give the edge to Rickie Fowler in a 72-hole head-to-head matchup against Keith Mitchell despite a small DFS discount on BDR.

This discrepancy is likely explained by Rickie’s major advantage when it comes to course history. Fowler has played Detroit Golf Club each of the last five years — notably taking home the trophy in 2023. Meanwhile, Mitchell has just two prior starts at the Rocket which resulted in missed cuts in 2024 and 2019.

According to our Nut Hut Ownership Projections available in the Discord, these guys are both among the more popular plays this week. Fowler is coming in at just over 13%-owned, while Mitchell is slightly behind him at around 11%.

Over-Unders for the Rocket Classic

Detroit Golf Club presents one of the bigger ‘birdie-fests’ of the year, and recent rainfall + very mild winds on Thursday have me leaning under on first-round totals. For reference, similar Rd. 1 conditions in 2023 yielded 38 rounds of 68 or better — and I think each of these guys would expect to be in the top 40 or so on Thursday night.

Ben Griffin fulfilled his part of last week’s parlay with a nice start at the Travelers, and I don’t see any reason why he won’t take advantage of the gettable conditions given the form he is in.

Cam Young is enjoying a mini-resurgence at the moment, and he’ll keep it going at Detroit GC where he’s posted finishes of T6 and T2 in his only two starts.

Collin is making a caddie change this week, going with an old college teammate. He’s played solid all year, so perhaps this comfy partnership will lead to a nice -4 start.

BTN Weekly Prop Play 
2025 Record: (6-15-3) [-9 units]

Tournament Matchup: Patrick Cantlay (+105) v Collin Morikawa

This matchup brings in two big names, where we see a clear edge… and some juicy value with Cantlay sitting at plus money.

While Collin has been coasting in neutral, Cantlay has been quietly trending in the right direction. Over the last 24, the BTN Matchup Tool gives Cantlay the edge in nearly every key stat category… and that includes the big ones this week Approach play and Birdie or Better percentage.

At a course where wedge work and putting matter most, it’s not rocket science. The model has Patrick at #3 while Collin is at #13, the stats back it up, Collin and Greiner split up this week and he’s got a college teammate on the bag. We’ll ride Cantlay to the moon at plus odds.

Check out Bet the Number’s full breakdown here

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR ignore the play. 

The final “elevated” PGA TOUR event of the year may be behind us, but that doesn’t mean every non-major tournament from here on out is a waste of time. The Rocket Classic (not sure why they dropped the “Mortgage”) routinely delivers an excellent show, and despite a smaller purse, plenty of big names have made the trip to Detroit Golf Club for this week’s action.

There’s no Scottie, Rory or Xander — but Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay and last week’s champ Keegan Bradley headline a reasonably strong field. As always, the Chalk Bomb is limited to players projected at over 15% ownership in DFS according to our proprietary projections available in the Tour Junkies Discord.

As host of the Rocket Classic for the last six years, Detroit GC is a very familiar track for fans and bettors alike. Not overly long and fairly straightforward, it’s a venue that’s yielded plenty of low scores over the years, and we can expect to see a winning total in the -20s or close to it.

But which popular pick will fail to keep up with the birdiefest? To identify this week’s Chalk Bomb, let’s dive into Bet the Number’s course-specific model for Detroit GC.

This week, their key stats to note are: Strokes Gained Off the Tee, Strokes Gained Approach from 75-160 Yards, Strokes Gained Putting from 8’-15’ on Bent and Bent/Poa Greens and Birdie or Better Percentage. All stats are calculated over the last 30 rounds, with the exception of putting, which is over the last 20.

Here’s where this player ranks in the field of 156 in those categories:

SG: Off the Tee — 55th
SG: Approach from 75-160 — 11th
SG: Putting on Bent/Poa from 5’-10’ — 103rd
Birdie or Better % — 32nd

The putting number is especially jarring — especially since this event effectively turns into a putting contest. As a Southern boy where Bermuda reigns supreme, his struggles on Bent/Poa shouldn’t be too big of a surprise.

It makes me sick to fade a fellow Georgia alum, even more so one that is reasonably priced on DraftKings at $8100. But his ownership percentage is astronomical for that range. At over 21%-owned, he’s the third-most popular pick this week. With so many other directions to go in the $8k range, you could gain a huge advantage on the field by going against the grain here.

It hurts me to say it, but…

Davis Thompson, you are the Chalk Bomb!

Why don’t they have massage parlors where you can just go to sleep afterwards?

The kind of people who believe plants have feelings are usually the same ones who eat mostly plants.

Imagine if slugs were really fast. That feels like a problem we’re not ready for. Actually… I don’t even want to imagine it.

Alright folks—that’s all I’ve got for the Rocket Classic. Stay well, and good luck with all your PGA DFS lineups and bets. BOME!