The 2025 PLAYERS Championship

The crown jewel of the Florida Swing is here, and with it the best weather we’ve seen in weeks on the PGA TOUR. Conditions for rounds one and two are about as good as it gets with sunshine and light breezes expected.

For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE

Hideki Matsuyama -120 ($9900) vs. Patrick Cantlay -103 ($10,000)

This week’s highlighted matchup features a major discrepancy in the $9k range where the overseas oddsmakers list Hideki Matsuyama as a favorite in a 72-hole matchup against Patrick Cantlay despite a small discount on the former Masters champ in DraftKings DFS.

As two of the top players over the last decade, the pair has plenty of experience at TPC Sawgrass, but Hideki has the much better record of the pair. He has seven top-25s in nine starts including four top-10 finishes. Cantlay on the other hand has just three top-25s with a career-best finish of T19.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, Matsuyama is the more popular DFS play according to our projections available in the Discord. Our models have Hideki just under 15% ownership while Cantlay is a bit further down the list at around 9%.

Welcome to the Show
Get to know the 2025 PGA Tour Rookies

Thanks to recent eligibility changes from the PGA Tour, 45 newly-minted Tour Cards were handed out ahead of the 2025 season. Each week, we’ll spotlight a few up-and-comers whose names will be important to know as the year progresses.

• Paul Peterson- Salem, OR

  Peterson secured his first PGA TOUR card with a victory at the 2024 Simmons Bank Open during the Korn Ferry Tour Finals. He finished No. 17 in the season-long KFT points list, improving on a No. 61 finish as a rookie in 2023. A professional since 2012, Petertson built his career internationally, winning the 2016 Czech Masters on the DP World Tour and the 2018 Myanmar Open. Originally from Oregon, Peterson played for Oregon State University from 2006-2010. The 36-year-old now resides in St. Simons, GA, and he's off to a strong start in his rookie year with three top-25s at the RSM Classic, the Sony Open and the Puerto Rico Open.

• Isaiah Salinda - San Francisco, CA

  Salinda earned his first PGA TOUR card via the KFT points list off the back of a commanding eight-stroke victory at the 2024 Panama Championship, tying the fourth-largest margin in Korn Ferry Tour history. The year prior, the 27-year-old previously finished No. 80 on the 2023 Korn Ferry Tour Points List as a rookie. A Stanford alum, Salinda won twice individually and helped the Cardinal capture the 2019 NCAA team title. Raised in South San Francisco, he honed his game at TPC Harding Park’s Fleming 9 and now resides in Las Vegas, Nevada. Through six starts on TOUR, Salinda has four made cuts including a solo third at the Mexico Open.

Over/Unders for the PLAYERS Championship

With weather a non-factor, I don’t mind splitting the parlay between AM/PM groups here and riding with two guys who are both in excellent form and offer a great course fit for TPC Sawgrass.

Hideki has shot 69 or better in nine of his last 14 rounds at Sawgrass and has three top-10s in his last four trips here. As for Tommy, his hot form has him jumping off our models thanks to the remarkable heater he’s been on since the Olympics. Following his runner-up to Scottie Scheffler in Paris, he hasn’t finished worse than T22 in 12 starts across the PGA and DP World Tours.

BTN Weekly Prop Play 
2025 Record: (0-9-1) [-9 units]

Tommy Fleetwood Top English (+175)

…

If you tailed last week, first of all, why? Second — take it up with DB… this will really test if the boss is checking my work here…

Tommy Lad is as good a course fit here as you’ll find for a guy with higher than 20/1 odds to win outright. His main competition here will be Aaron Rai and Justin Rose — if Matt Fitzpatrick is able to fix his game in the crucible of Sawgrass, I’ll be surprised. +175 feels just about high enough to take a chance on Tommy beating these guys and three other Englishmen over 72 holes.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

Ludvig’s T22 at Bay Hill kept the Chalk Bomb heater going strong, but the PLAYERS Championship is probably the most difficult week of the year for yours truly.

With a field of 144 featuring the best players that the PGA TOUR has to offer, finding a name I’m confident in fading isn’t easy. Every single player at an ownership of 15% or higher is a stud, so we’ve got our hands full trying to single out one as a potential dud this week.

On the bright side, TPC Sawgrass is one of the most unpredictable courses on the PGA TOUR schedule. Even the likes of Scheffler, McIlroy and Schauffele have missed cuts here, so there’s hope that our big-name fade will do the same.

As always, the Chalk Bomb is limited to players projected at over 15% ownership in DFS according to our proprietary projections available in the Tour Junkies Discord. The PLAYERS is often called the ‘best field in golf’ and we certainly have our pick of star golfers to choose from as six players meet our eligibility requirements.

Sawgrass is all about precision, and though scores in the 60s aren’t uncommon, players must be in total control of their golf ball to go low around here.

For more insight into what’s required at this week’s venue, we turn to our friends at Bet the Number who have identified a few key data points to hone in on as we look for a name to fade.

This week, BTN is highlighting Distance from Edge of Fairway (aka, how bad are your misses off the tee) and SG: APP from 125-200, followed by SG: Around the Green on Overseed and SG: Putting from 6’-18’. All stats are over the last 24 rounds.

That said, here’s where this week’s Chalk Bomb ranks among the field of 144 in those stat categories:

• Distance from Edge of Fairway — 94th

• SG: APP from 125-200 — 140th

• SG: ARG on Overseed Chipping Areas — 33rd

• SG: Putting from 6’-18’ — 99th

I honestly had to double check to make sure these were right… but the numbers never lie. This guy’s had a strong start to the season, but the underlying metrics suggest he could be in for a short weekend at Sawgrass.

That said, I’m still scared to fade this guy. The scars are still fresh from his OUTRIGHT WIN as the Chalk Bomb selection at Pebble, but I gotta trust the analytics here. Besides, at $11,500 on DK, you’re either taking this guy or Scottie, so I’m happy to take the best player on the planet instead.

So with an ownership percentage of nearly 20%,

Rory McIlroy! You are the Chalk Bomb!

It’s funny how, as you progress through college, they require you to write longer and longer papers. Then you get to the professional world and no one will read an email that’s more than five sentences.

I wonder how many “duels at dawn” back in the olden days didn’t actually happen at dawn because there was no such thing as an alarm clock back then.

I bet there would be far fewer snotty-nosed kids if tissues smelled like chocolate.

I wonder if I’m missing out because I’ve never had to use a Cobbler. Are they even around anymore? I feel like everyone still needs a good Cobbler.

Alright folks! That’s all I got for the PLAYERS Championship. Stay well and good luck with all your PGA DFS lineups and bets. BOME!