The 2025 PGA Championship

As we’ve all seen from Hideki’s viral moment putting through puddles, it’s been wet down in Charlotte. Conditions will be soft, but the rain will finally go away for rounds one and two. The forecast also calls for some wind gusts in the mid-teens, but that won’t be enough to keep this course from being very gettable early in this tournament.

For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE

Jordan Spieth -126 ($9300) vs. Brooks Koepka +106 ($9700)

The sharp line-setters are buying into the Grand Slam hype, making Jordan Spieth a heavy favorite over two-time PGA Champion Brooks Koepka in a 72-hole matchup.

Spieth certainly has the course experience advantage here with four total starts, including the last two years. He finished T29 here last year, just one spot away from his career-best finish at Quail (T28), but the recent loops around this track are something Brooks doesn’t have — he hasn’t played Quail Hollow since the 2018 Wells Fargo.

According to our Nut Hut Ownership Projections available in the Discord, Spieth is sitting at roughly 10% ownership, while Brooks is a few spots behind him at 8%.

Welcome to the Show
Get to know the 2025 PGA Tour Rookies

Thanks to recent eligibility changes from the PGA Tour, 45 newly-minted Tour Cards were handed out ahead of the 2025 season. Each week, we’ll spotlight a few up-and-comers whose names will be important to know as the year progresses.

Paul Waring - England

After 18 years as a professional, 38-year-old Paul Waring joins the PGA TOUR for the very first time off the back of a career year on the DPWT. He finished fifth in the 2024 Race to Dubai standings, bolstered by a win in the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which was just his second-career victory, and his first in over 132 professional starts. The Englishman has been commuting from overseas this season, but that hasn’t stopped him from making eight starts on the PGA TOUR. Unfortunately, he has yet to make a single cut in 2025.

Jesper Svensson - Sweden

After a few quiet post-college years, Svensson has rapidly climbed the pro golf ladder to finally reach the PGA TOUR at age 28. The Swede won on the European Challenge Tour in 2023 to earn DPWT status last year, and it took just one season on Europe’s top tour for him to earn a PGA TOUR card via the Race to Dubai points list. Svensson looked primed to continue that hot streak with a T10 at the Sony Open to start the year, but he has failed to crack the top 25 in any of his 12 starts since.

Over-Unders for the PGA Championship

Say what you want about a major returning to a venue we see every year, but on the bright side, a familiar track means we have plenty of data and course history to draw from.

In the last three events played at Quail Hollow (back to the 2021 Wells Fargo) — Tommy, Xander and JT have made every cut, and between them have shot 70 or better in 21/36 rounds. Perhaps even more significant, the HIGHEST score from any of these three over those 36 rounds? 73. So it’s safe to say these guys should give this a good run.

Combine the history with the soft conditions, and I think all three would be disappointed with a first-round score of even par or worse.

BTN Weekly Prop Play 
2025 Record: (3-12-3) [-9 units]

Tournament Matchup: Thorbjorn Oleson (-125) v Thomas Detry

The BTN Matchup Tool is firmly behind ThunderBear this week, and there’s good reason to trust it. Olesen has been quietly putting together strong performances, with two top-10s in his last four starts and a noticeable uptick in ball striking. Detry’s recent form hasn’t been terrible, but his lack of accuracy off the tee stands out — especially when Olesen holds a clear edge in that department. Both players rate similarly in the BTN Model overall, but Olesen starts to separate when you dig deeper. In the crucial 175–225 yard approach range, his long iron numbers are significantly stronger — a stat that should matter plenty on this course. It may not be a runaway, but all signs point to Olesen having the tools to take care of business.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR ignore the play. 

The second major championship of 2025 has arrived, and boy, do we have our work cut out for us this week.

A combination of wet conditions and the fact that Quail Hollow disproportionally rewards absolute mashers has resulted in a pre-tournament outlook that is as chalky as I can recall.

Essentially every pundit is saying the same eight guys have a chance to win this week, and to no surprise, it’s largely those guys who make up the most popular DFS plays for the PGA Championship.

That makes writing the Chalk Bomb hard.

I mean, who wants to bet against any of Bryson, Scottie, Rory, Xander and JT this week? You don’t come here for my outright picks, but I’d be genuinely surprised if the player who hoists the Wanamaker Trophy on Sunday isn’t among the list above.

Nevertheless, I have to pick someone from the list of six total golfers that are above our 15% ownership threshold according to our projections available in the Tour Junkies Discord. The astute among you may notice I only mentioned five names, but can you guess the sixth before the big reveal?

Well, here’s a big hint … we won’t be able to lean on the data expertise of our friends at Bet the Number this week, because this particular golfer doesn't have enough recent ShotLink data to plug into their model.

But there are other, non-analytics going against him too, which I will lay out below:

This player hasn’t played Quail Hollow since 2021, where he missed the cut.

His only prior experience here was the 2017 PGA, where he finished T58.

This player has four top-15 finishes in the last six majors.

Three of those came at the Open Championship or the Masters — very different tests than Quail Hollow.

In those four tournaments, he entered the final round trailing the leader by 12, 6, 6 and 12 shots respectively.

At the majors, this player hasn’t finished within five shots of the winner since the 2023 Masters.

It’s not the strongest case in the world, but it’s a helluva better case than the other guys I named, and I’m too chicken to fade any of them.

He’s priced as the fourth-highest favorite, and his DFS ownership reflects that at just under 19%. But as I said, there are others I’m more scared of, so that leaves me no choice but to bestow the Chalk Bomb to…

Jon Rahm!

Generally speaking, if you feel stupid that’s because you just got smarter.

There are actually many super heroes who don’t have to put their pants on one leg at a time.

Pigeons could’ve been given seagull voices. We don’t thank the universe enough for dodging that.

A wet door handle leading out of a bathroom should definitely be more comforting than a dry one. Just sayin.

Alright folks—that’s all I’ve got for the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow Club! Stay well, and good luck with all your PGA DFS lineups and bets. BOME!