The 2025 Open Championship

As befitting the Open, the weather could get weird. There’s an awful lot of greens and yellows on the forecast with some rain and heavy winds expected throughout the opening round. Things should lighten up a bit on Friday, particularly in the afternoon, so there may be a small AM/PM wave advantage.

For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE

Tyrrell Hatton -124 ($8900) vs Robert MacIntyre +102 ($9000)

Let’s hone in on a pair of Brits in the 8-9k range where the overseas oddsmakers are backing Tyrrell Hatton in a 72-hole matchup over Robert MacIntyre despite a $100 price difference in DraftKings DFS.

Both of these chaps fared well in 2019 when the Open was last here. In fact, they joined Rickie Fowler and Danny Willett in a tie for sixth.

According to our Nut Hut Ownership Projections available in the Discord, Hatton is the much more popular DFS pick. The public seems to be following the books as the Englishman is coming in around 16%-owned, while Bobby Mac is closer to 10%.

Over-Unders for the Open Championship

It’s the last major of the year, so let’s have some fun with this one. This play is a combination of weather advantages and backing the world’s best to do what they do best.

J Day gets the nod thanks to his earlyyyyy tee time, which should see him dodge the worst of the weather. He’s a solid links player with plenty of experience in this championship, so an under-par number in round one on this par-71 seems doable.

For the rest of this parlay, I’m counting on a few of the favorites to do what they will be expecting of themselves. Each of these guys will plan to be in contention over the weekend, and that starts with a solid opening round. A line set at one-under for Xander and Tommy feels high. Yes, it’s a major, but perhaps more so than any of the others, we often see some flashes of low scoring at the Open (weather permitting).

Scottie’s line is a bit sharper, but this guy can roll out of bed and shoot -2 anywhere, so here’s hoping he will tomorrow.

BTN Weekly Prop Play 
2025 Record: (6-17-3) [-11 units]

Sepp Straka (+110) v Collin Morikawa

Sometimes a matchup just screams, “It’s a trap.” And if you’re hearing that in Admiral Ackbar’s voice, we get it — this one might look like a setup. Sepp Straka at plus money against a former Open champ? Feels a little too good. But we’re buying it.

Morikawa might carry the bigger name and the major resume, but right now, he’s simply not the better player. Straka is locked in — gaining strokes across the board and flashing elite iron play that profiles perfectly for Royal Portrush. The BTN Matchup Tool backs it up, giving Straka the nod in recent form and key stats. Morikawa, meanwhile, has been running cold with the putter and middling across the board.

Just nothing that jumps out. It might feel like a trap, but the numbers say otherwise. We’re trusting the model and riding with Sepp to get it done.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR ignore the play. 

Hard to believe the end of Major Championship SZN is upon us. It’s been a heck of a run so far… Rory achieving the career Grand Slam at Augusta, slipping on the Green Jacket after a decade of anguish… Scottie Scheffler adding to his growing hall of fame legacy with a dominant win at the PGA… and JJ Spaun at Oakmont.

Jokes aside, golf’s biggest tournaments have lived up to the hype this year, and by all accounts, the finale will do the same.

As we all know, the Open Championship returns to Royal Portrush for just the third time. The famed Northern Irish venue served up a classic in 2019 that saw the hometown favorite Shane Lowry lift the best trophy in sports, the Claret Jug.

But we go not in search of he who will lift that storied silver cup come Sunday — instead, our aim is to single out the one popular player who has no shot… the Chalk Bomb.

For those unfamiliar, the Chalk Bomb is limited to players projected at over 15% ownership in DFS according to our proprietary projections available in the Tour Junkies Discord.

While we have some familiarity with Portrush from 2019, we’ll lean on the experts at Bet the Number to tell us what we need to know about this course, and what types of players will succeed (or fail) this week.

Their proprietary model is built on years of on-course analysis as well as their own input from on-site on the Causeway Coast this week. For the Open, they’re keying in on the following statistics: Driver Distance from Edge of Fairway (i.e. when you miss, how far do you miss), Strokes Gained Approach from 170-230 yards, Scrambling Percentage and Strokes Gained Putting from 6 to 15 feet. All stats are calculated over the last 24 rounds.

Here’s where this week’s Chalk Bomb ranks in the field of 156 in those categories:

Driver Distance from Edge of Fairway — 54th
SG: Approach from 170-230 — 48th
Scrambling — 71st
SG: Putting from 6’-15’ — 70th

These numbers do come with a caveat: there’s probably no other tournament where the data is less important. That’s not to say it’s meaningless at the Open, but on such a unique golf course with incredibly variable weather and scoring conditions, this championship is more of an art than a science.

Without a doubt, someone who ranks 95th in our models will find themselves in the top 10 come Sunday, and so too will brand-name stars suffer and fail to make the weekend. All that is to say, it’s a bit of a crap shoot when you visit the British Isles.

But even so, these numbers do not inspire confidence in a player who is coming in at $9700 on DK with an ownership of over 15%. I may very well regret fading the literal defending Champion Golfer of the Year… but here goes nothing.

Xander Schauffele, you are the Chalk Bomb!

I don’t smoke, but I do miss a good old car ashtray.

It always struck me as odd that people think going to the beach is relaxing. You haul a bunch of crap down to a crowded shoreline, set up your stuff, and then sit in direct sun drinking a cold beer and eating a warm turkey sandwich. Maybe 20 minutes of the whole day is actually relaxing. At least you have that cold beer though.

Bananas would be way less popular if we didn’t have the built-in color system telling us when they’re ripe. No one’s out here taking chances on a mystery fruit.

I’d love to know who’s in charge of deciding expiration dates. Like, did someone just try this mustard every day for two years until one Wednesday it betrayed them?

Alright folks—that’s all I’ve got for the 153rd Open Championship at Royal Portrush. Stay well, and good luck with all your PGA DFS lineups and bets. BOME!