The 2025 Mexico Open

After weeks of wind in rain in California, true dome golf is upon us as the TOUR heads south of the border to Vallarta. Clear skies, warm temps and little to no wind are expected throughout the week.

For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE

Rasmus Hojgaard -131 ($10,100) vs. Kurt Kitayama +106 ($10,200)

A weaker field means the likes of Hojgaard and Kitayama break into the $10k range on DraftKings where the two are neck-and-neck price-wise despite a major odds discrepancy in the head-to-head markets.

This is a bit surprising considering Kurt’s T2 here last year — especially compared to Rasmus who will be making his first trip to Vidanta Vallarta.

That said, Hojgaard looks to be the most popular DFS play this week at around 23% expected ownership according to our Nut Hut ownership projections available in the Discord. Kitayama won’t be far behind him with at 18% ownership — fourth highest among this week’s field.

Welcome to the Show
Get to know the 2025 PGA Tour Rookies

Thanks to recent eligibility changes from the PGA Tour, 45 newly-minted Tour Cards were handed out ahead of the 2025 season. Each week, we’ll spotlight a few up-and-comers whose names will be important to know as the year progresses.

• Quade Cummins- Weatherford, OK

  Cummins finally secured his first PGA TOUR card after a steady climb across three Korn Ferry Tour seasons. He improved from No. 70 as a rookie in 2022 to No. 59 in 2023 before finishing No. 11 last year as he led the KFT with 14 top-25 finishes in a total of 25 starts in 2024. A six-year standout at Oklahoma, he ranked No. 6 in the inaugural PGA TOUR University Class of 2021 and won the 2019 Pacific Coast Amateur, joining past champions like Will Zalatoris. So far in 2025, Cummins’ best finish is a T34 at the American Express.

• Ryan Gerard - Raleigh, NC

  Two years after playing the majority of his 2022-23 season on TOUR thanks to a Special Temporary Membership, Gerard is back in the big leagues full-time due to his No. 12 ranking in the season-long KFT points list. His breakthrough came with a victory at the BMW Charity Pro-Am, his first Korn Ferry Tour title, followed by two top-10 finishes in the Korn Ferry Tour Finals. A five-year standout at North Carolina, the Raleigh native earned 2022 All-America Second Team honors and set the program’s career scoring average record (71.65), surpassing Ben Griffin. Gerard is off to a strong start this season with two top-20 finishes in his first four TOUR starts including made cuts in each.

Over/Unders for the Mexico Open

It was bound to happen eventually… After four hot weeks in a row, we finally lost an Underdog parlay. But we’re back in the saddle with a pair of unders in the Mexico Open where I like Jaeger and Hall to shoot -3 or better.

This course is very getable in calm conditions like we expect in Rd. 1, so most of the field will likely shoot under par. That said, 68.5 feels a little high for these guys who have combined for this impressive record at Vidanta: T3, T33, T10, T18 and T15.

BTN Weekly Prop Play 
2025 Record: (0-6-1) [-6 units]

First Round 3-Ball: Kurt Kitayama (-105) v Patton Kizzire v Francesco Molinari

We’re going to ignore the above and talk about Kurt Kitayama.

He’s actually my OAD pick this week as his power off the tee and ability to capitalize on the Par 5s means he should be able to go low — much like he did on his last trip to Vallarta where he finished T2.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

We’re on back-to-back MCs from the Chalk Bomb thanks to Jordan Spieth’s stinker at Torrey Pines, but we’re gonna have to look harder to find the right player to fade among the much weaker field teeing it up at Vidanta Vallarta this week.

According to our friends at Bet the Number, this resort course par 71 is peak bomber’s paradise. The data shows that players who are 20 yards longer on average off the tee will pick up roughly 2.4 strokes per round on the field. On the flip side, those who are 20 yards shorter than average will expect to lose 1.38 strokes per round. Over four days, that’s a difference of nearly 15 shots…

So who can we count on to suck it up? As always, the Chalk Bomb is limited to players projected at over 15% ownership in DFS according to our proprietary projections available in the Tour Junkies Discord. This week, that technically only leaves us with five options, but I’m gonna go ahead and extend the offer to a pair of players sitting right at 14.5%

For their power-based models this week Bet the Number is keying on the following stats as indicators of success at Vidanta Vallarta, including a unique driving accuracy stat:

Driver Ball Speed, Right Miss Percentage (lots of trouble right off the tee this week) followed by SG: Approach from 175-240 and Par 5 Birdie-or-Better Percentage. All stats are over the last 30 rounds.

With that in mind, here’s where this week’s Chalk Bomb ranks among the field of 132 in those stat categories:

• Ball Speed — 32nd

• Right Miss Percentage — 68th

• SG: APP from 175-225 Yards — 119th

• Par 5 Birdie-or-Better Percentage — 47th

What this player lacks in ball speed, he still manages to drive it well with a SG: OTT ranking if 6th in the field this week — but that right-miss ranking is troubling.

Combine that with the lackluster data behind Par 5 scoring, (no doubt a result of his poor approach numbers from over 175 yards) and it feels like the underlying data is pointing in only one direction…

Keep in mind, this is all coming from a player who’s the fourth-most expensive on DK at $9800. So with that and an ownership of 14.5% (bending the rules a bit), I’m comfortable fading Sam Stevens as this week’s Chalk Bomb!

I wonder what the percentage of people is that have actually ridden in the back seat of their own car.

I continue to be annoyed by the construction of drinking straws these days. The latest is that it seems that you can no longer bang them on a table to get the paper wrapping off without them breaking (rendering the straw utterly useless). You have to peel the paper off instead and that pisses me off.

I think one of the best birthdays a guy can possibly have is February 14th.

There is an optimal way to load a dishwasher, and pretty much everyone thinks they’ve found it.

Alright folks! That’s all I got for the Mexico Open in the Vidanta World this week. Stay well and good luck with all your PGA DFS lineups and bets. BOME!