The 2025 Memorial Tournament

It’s an abnormally chilly weekend for nearly June in Ohio, but the players won’t mind as long as the wind stays down… Thursday morning appears to have the best scoring conditions, but it’s that wave that will face the highest winds the next afternoon.

For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE

Viktor Hovland -131 ($8900) vs. Ludvig Aberg +101 ($9300)

The Scandinavians are going head-to-head in this week’s matchup, where the line-setters have Viktor Hovland as a surprising favorite in a 72-hole contest against Ludvig Aberg despite a $400 DFS discount on the Norwegian.

This could be attributed to Viktor’s experience at Jack’s Place — a venue he’s played each of the last four years, notably winning the 2023 edition of the Memorial in a playoff over Denny McCarthy. But while Ludvig only has one prior start in this event, he made the most of it, nabbing a T5 last year.

It looks like the public is backing the oddsmakers here. According to our Nut Hut Ownership Projections available in the Discord, Hovland is among the most popular DFS plays at around 17%, while Aberg is right at 14%.

Welcome to the Show
Get to know the 2025 PGA Tour Rookies

Thanks to recent eligibility changes from the PGA Tour, 45 newly-minted Tour Cards were handed out ahead of the 2025 season. Each week, we’ll spotlight a few up-and-comers whose names will be important to know as the year progresses.

Antoine Rozner - France

The 32-year-old earned his first PGA TOUR card thanks to a dramatic finish to his 2024 campaign on the DP World Tour. He bagged three top-six finishes in a row at the end of last season, including a T3 at the DPWT Championship to vault himself just inside the top 10 of the season-long points list. The Frenchman is enjoying a solid, if quiet, start to his first season on TOUR. He’s made 10/11 cuts, but has only one top-25 finish – a T13 at the Byron Nelson.

Rikuya Hoshino - Japan

Hoshino, 28, has been a commanding presence on the Japan Golf Tour for much of his career, already a six-time winner in eight years as a pro. He added his first DP World Tour title at this year’s Commercial Bank Qatar Masters, after beginning the season with back-to-back runner-up finishes in Australia last fall. With four additional top-10 finishes, it was enough to cement his first PGA TOUR card. His rookie year hasn’t quite gone according to plan, however, making 5/13 cuts and zero top-25 finishes thus far.

Over-Unders for the Memorial Tournament

Muirfield Village is one of the few PGA TOUR venues where par is always a good score. The cut line has been +3 or higher in each of the last three seasons, and it’s easy to see why — Jack’s Place demands accuracy and precision from tee to green — something guys like Min Woo and Sahith just don’t have at the moment.

Glover should have the type of game that would fit this track, but his record at the Memorial is atrocious — he has ONE finish better than T37 in nearly two decades’ worth of visits to Muirfield Village. And that finish was a T8… in 2005.

Also, these guys are going off just late enough to catch the higher wind speeds expected Thursday afternoon, so three rounds over par are in play.

BTN Weekly Prop Play 
2025 Record: (4-13-3) [-9 units]

Tournament Matchup: JT Poston (+100) v JJ Spaun

This is a sneaky-good matchup between two guys in solid form, but we’re siding with JT Poston at even money thanks to a few subtle but important edges. Poston’s played The Memorial five straight years, making the cut in four and cracking the top 40 three times—he knows his way around Muirfield Village. Spaun, on the other hand, has just one start here in the last five years, which makes him more of an unknown on this demanding track. Beyond course familiarity, Poston’s putter is absolutely en fuego—he’s gained over 3.5 strokes on the greens in four consecutive events. That kind of confidence with the flat stick is no small thing on Jack’s slick, undulating greens. The BTN Matchup Tool leans Poston’s way, and when the numbers line up with the vibes, we’re happy to back the Mailman to deliver a fat envelope full of units this week.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR ignore the play. 

The Memorial marks the 7th and second-to-last “signature event” of the 2025 PGA TOUR season as the limited field of 72 players takes on Muirfield Village Golf Club.

Designed in 1974 by Jack Nicklaus, ‘Jack’s Place’ has hosted the Memorial since 1976, and the event has a long history as one of the sternest tests on the PGA TOUR schedule.

With winning scores often in the single digits under par, the Memorial Tournament requires precision and accuracy throughout, and only those in full control of their golf ball will be around with a chance to win come Sunday.

As is always the case with the signature events, the best that the PGA TOUR has to offer (minus Rory McIlroy) are in the field this week with a purse of $20 million on the line.

At the top of the DFS board, the reigning PGA Champion and No. 1 in the world Scottie Scheffler, is owned in nearly 50% of lineups — but who among those at 15% or higher could be an optimal fade to gain an edge on the public this week?

To find out, let’s dive into the model our friends at Bet the Number have developed based on years of shot tracking and on-site observations at Muirfield Village.

According to them, the primary stat differentiators are Driving Accuracy, Strokes Gained Approach from 150-225 Yards, Strokes Gained Putting on Bent Greens and Bogey Avoidance. All stats are calculated over the last 30 rounds.

Here’s where this week’s Chalk Bomb ranks among the field of 72 in those categories:

Driving Accuracy — 47th
SG: Approach from 150-225 — 10th
SG: Putting on Bent — 70th
Bogey Avoidance — 37th

This guy is in pretty hot form, but those numbers suggest some underlying problems that could show up at Muirfield Village. And as a guy who’s coming in as the third-most expensive DFS play at $10,100, I’d like the analytics to be better.

So with an ownership of just over 15%….

Justin Thomas, you are the Chalk Bomb!

I don’t understand people who like a seed inside their grape. Who bites into a delicious grape and thinks, “You know what would make this better? A hard little obstacle I can crack a tooth on, or have to fish out with my fingers mid-bite.”

I gotta be honest - I don’t think I’ve ever actually seen a real monkey eat a banana.

I wonder if the first wild horses that agreed to be tamed realized they’d just screwed over the entire future of horsedom.

Alright folks—that’s all I’ve got for the Memorial Tournament at Jack’s place. Stay well, and good luck with all your PGA DFS lineups and bets. BOME!