The 2025 John Deere Classic

Thursday’s opening round should see very mild conditions ahead of an expected uptick in wind speeds on Friday. Looking at the charts, there may be a slight PM/AM wave advantage based on the gusts.

For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE

Emiliano Grillo -120 ($7500) vs. Nico Echavarria -103 ($7800)

In a weaker field this week, we’re looking at the cheaper options where the sharp oddsmakers favor Emiliano Grillo in a 72-hole head-to-head matchup against Nico Echavarria.

Each has two prior starts at TPC Deere run, with Grillo’s T2 in 2022 by far the best result of the pair. That said, he missed the cut the next year, and he skipped this event entirely in 2024. Meanwhile, Nico improved on his MC in 2023 with a T52 last year.

According to our Nut Hut Ownership Projections available in the Discord, Grillo is the more popular DFS play at around 13%, while Nico is closer to 11%.

Over-Unders for the John Deere Classic

Meaningless tournament = let’s get weird.

I get TPC Deere Run is a birdie fest track, but spotting Sungjae and Max a -4 round seems a bit much considering the form they’re in. Players took it real low in 2024, but that was on a rain-softened golf course. The Quad Cities have been bone-dry in June, so I’m expecting slightly more difficult scoring conditions in round one than we saw last year.

As for the made cut section of the parlay, each of these guys rank inside the top 5 of our models this week, so it feels like as close to a sure thing as you’re gonna get that they’ll at least see the weekend.

All that said… this is a six-leg parlay. So proceed with caution.

BTN Weekly Prop Play 
2025 Record: (6-16-3) [-10 units]

Tournament Matchup: Nico Echavarria (-110) v Kurt Kitayama

There are plenty of tempting options on the board this week, but our favorite play is Nico Echavarria in what shapes up as a sneaky-good matchup. According to the Matchup Tool, this one’s tight on paper, but a few key edges tilt things in Nico’s favor.

He’s coming off a stellar T6 finish at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, where every part of his game clicked. He gained nearly 11 strokes total, including over four with the putter. Kitayama, on the other hand, has stayed ice cold on the greens, losing strokes putting in four of his last six events. Nico also rates out better in the crucial SG: Approach range from 100–190 yards — a key scoring zone this week in our overall tournament BTN Model.

This one may come down to the wire, but we’re hitching a ride with Nico and betting he takes us on a John Deere tractor joyride straight to the payout window.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR ignore the play. 

After a joyless (but smart) fade of Davis Thompson last week in Detroit, we turn to where the former Bulldog nabbed his first and only PGA Tour win last season — the world-famous Quad Cities.

It’s up for debate which of the four cities can rightfully claim TPC Deere Run and the John Deere Classic, but one thing is for sure — the locals are fired up for it. Every year, this event marks a slight lull in the summer calendar as the top pros turn their gaze across the pond to the final major championship of the year, but don’t tell that to the fans in attendance.

The increasing purse and popularity of next week’s Scottish Open has also dented the prestige of ‘the Deere’, but all the same, $1.5 million and a Masters invite are on the line for this week’s champion.

But we’re not here to find the winner — we’re looking for quite the opposite. For those unfamiliar, (who are somehow choosing the John Deere edition of this email as their first) the Chalk Bomb is limited to players projected at over 15% ownership in DFS according to our proprietary projections available in the Tour Junkies Discord.

To help us identify which player is worth the fade this week, we turn to our friends at Bet the Number and their course-specific model for TPC Deere Run.

This week, their key stats to note are: Strokes Gained Off the Tee, Strokes Gained Approach from 100-190 Yards, Strokes Gained Putting from 8’-15’ on Bent and Bent/Poa Greens and Birdie or Better Percentage. All stats are calculated over the last 24 rounds, with the exception of putting, which is over the last 20.

Here’s where this player ranks in the field of 156 in those categories:

SG: Off the Tee — 64th
SG: Approach from 100-190 — 80th
SG: Putting on Bent/Poa from 8’-15’ — 135th
Birdie or Better % — 61st

These numbers leave this player as the 107th-ranked player in the BTN models this week. Now, will he finish there? Almost certainly not — even a missed cut would be a surprise. But for a player who is THE most expensive on DraftKings DFS at $10,500… we gotta have better analytics.

So at a projected ownership of 15.9%…

Jason Day, you are the Chalk Bomb!

I believe water parks were invented by an evil being. And you will never convince me otherwise.

I wonder how confused caterpillars really are about the whole metamorphosis thing.

I don’t know why I need electrolytes so badly. They never taught us about those in school. I’m pretty sure they were invented by a wizard with a marketing degree.

Alright folks—that’s all I’ve got for the John Deere Classic. Stay well, and good luck with all your PGA DFS lineups and bets. BOME!