The 2025 Genesis Invitational

A rare return trip to the West Coast following the Phoenix Open brings more of the same wacky weather we saw at Torrey a few weeks ago. While it won’t be quite as windy, high gusts and even some rainfall are a high possibility for the opening rounds.

For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE

Collin Morikawa -129 ($10,000) vs. Justin Thomas -101 ($10,100)

We’re honing in on a star-studded matchup discrepancy this week where the sharp oddsmakers list Collin Morikawa as a favorite in a 72-hole matchup against Justin Thomas despite a slight discount on the former in DraftKings DFS.

Neither teed it up at Torrey a few weeks ago, but it’s not like they needed the extra reps at this venue. These guys have plenty of experience here and both have strong records with seven top-25 finishes between them across nine total starts.

These two are right near the top in terms of the most popular DFS plays this week. According to our Nut Hut ownership projections available in the Discord, both are right around 17%-20% — third and fourth behind only Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler.

Welcome to the Show
Get to know the 2025 PGA Tour Rookies

Thanks to recent eligibility changes from the PGA Tour, 45 newly-minted Tour Cards were handed out ahead of the 2025 season. Each week, we’ll spotlight a few up-and-comers whose names will be important to know as the year progresses.

• Thomas Rosenmueller - Germany

  Rosenmueller secured his first PGA TOUR card with a win at the NV5 Invitational, followed by back-to-back T5 finishes. He shined in the Korn Ferry Tour Finals with a T2 at the Nationwide Children’s Hospital Championship and another T5 at the Korn Ferry Tour Championship. After climbing from No. 158 in 2022 to No. 67 in 2023, Rosenmueller finished ninth in the 2024 KFT points list to earn his first TOUR Card. A University of North Texas alum, he turned pro in 2019 and dominated the 2020 Pro Golf Tour with three wins. Through three starts on the PGA TOUR, he has yet to finish higher than T59.

• William Mouw - Upland, CA

  Mouw earned his PGA TOUR card in his first full Korn Ferry Tour season, highlighted by three T2 finishes, including two in the Korn Ferry Tour Finals. A decorated amateur, he won the 2017 Western Junior Championship by eight strokes, tying the event’s largest margin of victory, and claimed the 2019 California State Amateur at just 18. A four-year standout at Pepperdine, he helped the Waves secure the 2021 NCAA Team Championship on his way to the No. 6 spot in the 2023 PGA TOUR University Rankings. The 24-year-old has made three starts on TOUR this season, with his only made cut coming at the Farmers where he finished T66.

Over/Unders for the Genesis Invitational

Don’t even look at the prop plays in the next section. The important thing is: the Underdog plays are on a four-week heater… and that includes the Farmers three weeks ago.

So returning to Torrey should be no problem, right? Well, the weatherman has everyone scared of tough conditions this week, so I’m keeping it simple with a relatively safe/straightforward play.

I gotta believe Rory can break par in Rd. 1 despite the thick rough and higher winds, and a top 20 in a loaded field seems like a lot for Akshay who has yet to crack the top 20 in any of his four starts this season — most of which have been against inferior fields.

BTN Weekly Prop Play 
2025 Record: (0-5-1) [-5 units]

First Round 3-Ball: Rasmus Hojgaard (+105) v Kevin Yu v Mark Hubbard

The cost of our Underdog success has clearly been felt here. I guess we can’t have it all…

Rasmus’ game is built for tough setups, so it’s no surprise he shows up well in the models for this week. His ball speed off the tee and excellent approach numbers should serve him well this week as he comes off back-to-back top-25s on TOUR.

There’s not much going for these other two who have a total of (2) top-40 finishes at Torrey across nine total starts.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

After Rory embarrassed us at Pebble, we got one back with a successful missed cut from last week’s Chalk Bomb, Sam Burns.

So let’s see if we can get on a roll as the PGA TOUR makes a rare return to Torrey Pines for the Genesis Invitational. Take what you know about Torrey’s South course and turn it up a notch or two — the setup will be more like the 2021 U.S. Open staged here than the course that saw Harris English take home the Farmers just a few weeks ago. Longer rough and recent rains are expected to up the difficulty, and with more wind and rain in the forecast — the field will have their hands full.

So who to fade on a setup like this? Given the bigger purse as befitting the “elevated” event, there’s no shortage of star names to choose from. As always, the Chalk Bomb is limited to players projected at over 15% ownership in DFS according to our proprietary projections available in the Tour Junkies Discord.

So let’s dive into what our friends at Bet the Number have cooked up for their models this week. Much like the Farmers, power and ball-striking is the name of the game — but with an added emphasis on bogey avoidance given the tougher conditions.

BTN has singled out the following stats as key indicators of success this week: Carry Distance, SG: APP from 175-225 yards followed by SG: Putting from 4’-12’ on Overseed greens and Bogey Avoidance.*The putting stat is over the last 16 rounds while the rest cover the last 40 rounds.

With that in mind, here’s where this week’s Chalk Bomb ranks among the field of 132 in those stat categories:

• Carry Distance — 38th

• SG: APP from 175-225 Yards — 67th

• SG: Putting from 4’-12’ on Overseed — 22nd

• Bogey Avoidance — 3rd

While that bogey avoidance ranking is stout, I’m not sure it does enough to make up for deficiencies elsewhere — at least when compared to the highest-owned players this week.

I honestly hate this fade. It was great to see this guy find the magic a bit in Scottsdale and convince a few of us that he might do something big this year — but Torrey just isn’t the right course for him, (four MCs and no finish higher than T19 in eight trips).

So even with an attractive price of $8500 on DraftKings DFS, I’m steering clear of his 15% ownership and naming Jordan Spieth as this week’s Chalk Bomb!

I bet a lot of people who often use the phrase “thanks in advance” also thank afterward just as much.

Sometimes I think of how amazing cats would be playing Air Hockey.

If you served some chicken breast with ketchup most people would wonder what the hell is wrong with you. Turn that chicken breast into some dinosaur nuggets though and it’s completely fine.

I still don’t know how having a screen saver on your computer actually saves your screen. Or, for that matter, what the hell we are trying to save the screen from.

Alright folks! That’s all I got for the Genesis Invitational this week. Stay well and good luck with all your PGA DFS lineups and bets. BOME!