The 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship

As expected for August in Tennessee, it’ll be a little warm. But we’re looking at otherwise perfect conditions with virtually no wind to speak of. No breeze might make it a little sticky for spectators, but it could lend to some low scores on Thursday and Friday.

For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE

Corey Conners -123 ($8500) vs Sam Burns +102 ($8900)

With a loaded field (minus Rory) befitting the first playoff event, we’ve got a pair of bigger names in the $8k range to highlight as the sharp linesetters favor Corey Conners over Sam Burns in a 72-hole matchup despite a $400 discount on the Canadian on DK.

Both have plenty of starts between them at TPC Southwind, but it comes as no surprise that “Bermuda Burns” has the better record. He has three top-20 finishes in five starts, including a runner-up in 2021 and a T5 last year. Conners’ best finish in eight trips is a T6 in 2023 — his lone top 25 finish.

These two are neck-and-neck in terms of popularity according to our Nut Hut Ownership Projections available in the Discord. Our count shows the pair are practically tied at just over 12%-owned headed into the tournament.

Over-Unders for the FedEx St. Jude Championship

Following the successful two-legger last week, we’re keeping things simple and backing a pair of unders for some in-form players who pop in our models.

Two-under seems likely for Russ Henley off the back of a T10 in his last start and a 2025 season that’s been perhaps the best of his career. He ranks 4th in our models this week, and he’ll be looking to channel the play that earned him a T6 at this event in 2023.

As for Fitz, you could argue nobody is hotter than the Englishman right now (well, one person might be…). He hasn’t finished outside the top-20 since the U.S. Open, and that includes four-straight top-10 finishes. With very gettable scoring conditions, a two-under 68 seems more than reasonable.

BTN Weekly Prop Play 
2025 Record: (9-17-3) [-8 units]

Russell Henley (-120) v Justin Thomas

For many of the same reasons stated above, we’re backing Russell Henley to keep it rolling at TPC Southwind. Henley lands inside the top 10 of our proprietary BTN Model this week, while JT sits back at 44th — a clear signal when it comes to course-fit and key stat performance.

The Matchup Tool also favors Henley, with noticeable separation in SG: Approach and Scrambling over the last 24 rounds — both critical at Southwind, where precision is everything. Another underrated edge? Accuracy off the tee. Henley ranks much better in our “Distance from Edge of Fairway” metric — a sneaky stat that tends to matter more on tighter layouts like this one, where big misses can derail a round. We’ll trust the model and the stat profile to carry Henley through the Memphis heat and into the win column.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR ignore the play. 

The 2025 golf calendar rang in the new year with the Sentry Tournament of Champions, and 36 golf tournaments later, we’re down to 70 golfers chasing the biggest purse in golf and the title of FedEx Cup Champion.

Rory McIlroy may be taking a page out of the NBA’s “load management” playbook, but the best of the rest the PGA TOUR has to offer will be teeing it up in Memphis to see who will survive another week in the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

For our purposes, we’re looking for a potential star who might see his season come to an end at TPC Southwind this week — aka, the Chalk Bomb.

For those unfamiliar, the Chalk Bomb is limited to players projected at over 15% ownership in DFS according to our proprietary projections available in the Tour Junkies Discord. This week, that leaves us with a total of 9 stars and popular value plays to choose from.

Once again, we rely on the data from our pals at Bet the Number and their proprietary model custom-built for this week’s action at TPC Southwind. On a point-to-point golf course that prioritizes accuracy over power, the BTN model is highlighting: Driver Distance from Edge of Fairway (i.e. when you miss, how far do you miss), Strokes Gained Approach from 130-170 yards, Scrambling Percentage and Strokes Gained Putting from 6-15 feet. All stats are calculated over the last 30 rounds.

Here’s where this week’s Chalk Bomb ranks in the field of *69 (thanks Rory) in those categories:

Distance from Edge of Fairway — 20th
SG: Approach from 100-170 — 28th
Scrambling % — 56th
SG: Putting from 6’-15’ — 67th

Even if these data points aren’t enough, this player’s record at TPC Southwind isn’t exactly inspiring. Yes, he has just the one start, but it was a T40. As a young player on TOUR, he’s clearly still learning some of these tracks, and it wouldn’t surprise me if we see another below-average finish here.

So at $9500 on DraktKings DFS and a projected ownership of right at 15%…

Ludvig Aberg, you are the Chalk Bomb!

I just feel like not enough people water ski anymore. And I don’t know why that bothers me, but it does.

It’s incredible how lost men look in public without something to do with their hands. Put them at an event, waiting on a drink, and you can watch the panic slowly rise — like they’re one idle finger away from just clapping for no reason.

It kind of sucks that movies like “Gleaming the Cube” and “Airborne” will never be made again. Today’s youth just aren’t out here solving crimes on skateboards or rollerblading down San Francisco hills for no reason. Hard to capture that kind of unrivaled energy when most risks involve forgetting a charger.

Alright folks—that’s all I’ve got for the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Stay well, and good luck with all your PGA DFS lineups and bets. BOME!