The 2025 CJ Cup Byron Nelson

In true Texas fashion, the conditions will fluctuate significantly through the first two rounds. Thursday looks pristine with low winds and mild temps, but all hell could break loose come Friday…

For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE

Eric Cole -121 ($8100) vs. Nicolai Hojgaard -102 ($8200)

We’ve got our eye on the low $8k range where Eric Cole is a favorite in a 72-hole matchup vs Nicolai Hojgaard despite a slight discrepancy in DFS pricing.

This could be down to a slight course experience edge for the American, as this will be Nicolai’s first-ever start at TPC Craig Ranch. Cole on the other hand, was here last year, where he managed a respectable T23.

Our Nut Hut Ownership Projections available in the Discord show that Nicolai is the more popular play at around 10%-owned compared to Cole, who may be a sleeper play at closer to 6%.

Welcome to the Show
Get to know the 2025 PGA Tour Rookies

Thanks to recent eligibility changes from the PGA Tour, 45 newly-minted Tour Cards were handed out ahead of the 2025 season. Each week, we’ll spotlight a few up-and-comers whose names will be important to know as the year progresses.

Aldrich Potgieter - South Africa

Aldrich Potgieter became the second-youngest graduate in Korn Ferry Tour history at just 20 years and 23 days old, trailing only Jason Day, who graduated in 2007. Potgieter surpassed Day as the youngest winner in Korn Ferry Tour history with a breakthrough victory at the 2024 Bahamas Great Abaco Classic at The Abaco Club, capturing the title at 19 years, 4 months, and 11 days old. The win made him only the fourth teenager to win on the Korn Ferry Tour, joining Akshay Bhatia, Sungjae Im, and Day. Potgieter turned professional in the summer of 2023, opting to forgo college after an acclaimed amateur career that included a historic win at the 2022 Amateur Championship, where he became the second-youngest winner in the event's long history. He has two top-15 finishes through 10 PGA TOUR starts in 2025, including a runner-up finish in the Mexico Open.

Noah Goodwin - Dallas, TX

24-year-old Noah Goodwin earned PGA TOUR membership in his second season on the Korn Ferry Tour, turning in six top-10 finishes in 2024 to secure his first TOUR card. The strong campaign marked a bounce-back effort after an injury-plagued rookie season in 2023, when he battled hip and lower back issues and finished No. 110 on the Points List. He regained Korn Ferry Tour status with a T14 at the Final Stage of Q-School. Goodwin’s rise began in 2022 when he notched two wins and finished No. 3 on the PGA TOUR Canada Order of Merit. A five-year standout at Southern Methodist University (2018–22), he set the program’s all-time career scoring average (71.14) and placed No. 12 in the 2022 PGA TOUR University Ranking. Goodwin has made the cut in 5/10 starts in 2025, with a high finish of T12 in Puerto Rico.

Over-Unders for the Byron Nelson

TPC Craig Ranch is getable even with some wind, but with a practically breathless day expected in Round 1, scores will be low.

Not gonna lie, there wasn’t much to choose from as of writing on Tuesday night, but three under or better from this pair caught my eye. This is more about the number than the player, as I expect to see a scoring average well under par tomorrow.

BTN Weekly Prop Play 
2025 Record: (2-11-3) [-9 units]

Rd. 1 Matchup: Davis Riley (-115) v Matt Kuchar

I’ve been looking for a way to get just a little action on Davis Riley this week, and this seems like a great way to do it. He’s quietly put together three top-25 finishes in his last five standard PGA TOUR starts, and his driving and putting proficiency should serve him well during this week’s birdiefest. Kuch was -115 as well, and I don’t see why Riley shouldn’t be favored here in round one.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

After what seemed like a month of incredible golf, we’ve reached the late-spring lull in the PGA TOUR calendar before things start to ramp up again headed into the PGA Championship.

Yours truly and the rest of the Tour Junkies crew enjoyed a much needed week off during the Zurich, but we’re back to our regularly scheduled programming as the TOUR returns to traditional stroke play at the Byron Nelson.

This event doesn’t always feature the strongest field, but with Scottie Scheffler and Jordan Spieth supporting their home state with their presence, you could say there’s a little added juice. After all, the World No. 1 is still seeking his first victory in 2025.

The oddsmakers are convinced he’ll find it this week as Scottie is a shocking +280 to win outright… so it’s safe to say he and his 45% ownership won’t be selected as this week’s Chalk Bomb.

As always, the Chalk Bomb is limited to players projected at over 15% ownership in DFS according to our proprietary projections available in the Tour Junkies Discord. Excluding Scheffler, we have a further eight players to choose from.

To help us narrow that down to one, the expert analysts at Bet the Number have applied their years of studying TPC Craig Ranch to come up with a few key stats to focus on that are particular to this event. This week, they’re keying in on Strokes Gained Off the Tee, Strokes Gained Approach from 175-250 yards, Birdie or Better Percentage and Strokes Gained Putting from 8-15 Feet on Bentgrass. All of these are calculated over the last 36 rounds with the exception of putting, which is over the last 16.

With that in mind, here’s where this week’s Chalk Bomb ranks among the field of 156 players in each of those categories.

SG: Off the Tee — 22nd
SG: APP from 175-250 — 119th
Birdie or Better % — 41st
Strokes Gained Putting from 8”-15” on Bentgrass — 36th

Added to those lackluster numbers is the surprising fact that this guy has actually never played Craig Ranch before. His last start at the Byron Nelson came back in 2019 when the event was still played at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas.

His last two PGA TOUR starts have been very solid — a T11 at Harbour Town and a T5 at Augusta, but a shocking missed cut in a Korean event marks his most recent start, and that’s not enough for me to overcome his recent numbers and his experience disadvantage at this track.

At $10,000 on DraftKings and an ownership percentage of 15% I’m looking elsewhere and fading Sungjae Im as this week’s Chalk Bomb!

Does anyone actually like La Croix?

Grape soda is always purple, which completely ignores the existence of green grapes.

Gatorade seems to be mostly consumed during sports and hangovers. So pretty much one’s physical best and worst.

Basically, when you eat a hot dog, a few hours later your body crafts its own in your intestine. It’s like magic.

Alright folks—that’s all I’ve got for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson! Stay well, and good luck with all your PGA DFS lineups and bets. BOME!