The 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge

The TOUR returns to Texas and the famous winds of the Lone Star State. Thursday appears to have the milder breezes of the opening two rounds, with peak gusts currently expected on Friday morning.

For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE

Ben Griffin -124 ($8700) vs. Keith Mitchell +102 ($9000)

We’ve got a discrepancy in the high $8k range this week where the overseas line setters have Ben Griffin as a big favorite over Keith Mitchell in a four-round matchup despite a $300 discount on the former North Carolina star.

There’s no real course history distinction between these two. Both were here last year and have made at least two prior starts at Colonial, but neither has ever finished better than T37.

These guys aren’t the most popular DFS plays this week according to our Nut Hut Ownership Projections available in the Discord. We’re tracking Griffin at just under 7% ownership, while Mitchell is coming in closer to 6%.

Welcome to the Show
Get to know the 2025 PGA Tour Rookies

Thanks to recent eligibility changes from the PGA Tour, 45 newly-minted Tour Cards were handed out ahead of the 2025 season. Each week, we’ll spotlight a few up-and-comers whose names will be important to know as the year progresses.

Niklas Norgaard - Denmark

The 32-year-old Dane earned his first status on the PGA TOUR thanks to a career year on the DP World Tour, where he finished inside the top 10 on the DPWT Eligibility Ranking. He earned his first DPWT title at the 2024 Betfred British Masters and added a runner-up and four other top-10 finishes that season. Norgaard also finished T15 at last year’s Genesis Scottish Open in just his third-career start on a PGA TOUR-sanctioned event. He’s made the cut in fewer than half his PGA TOUR starts so far in 2025, but he did earn a T5 finish at the Myrtle Beach Classic.

Matteo Manassero - Italy

Manassero was once golf’s teenage prodigy, finishing T13 at the 2009 Open Championship at age 16 and becoming the youngest winner in DP World Tour history. By his early 20s, he had four DP World Tour titles and a top-30 world ranking. But a steep decline saw him lose his tour status and fall to No. 1,805 in the world, even stepping away from the game.

Rebuilding on the Alps and Challenge Tours, Manassero made significant changes in 2019 and found his form again. He won twice on the Challenge Tour in 2023 and ended an 11-year win drought with a fifth DP World Tour title at the 2024 Jonsson Workwear Open. Now 31, he returns to major championships and the PGA TOUR with dual membership. A T12 at the Zurich Classic team event is the highlight of his 2025 season so far.

Over-Unders for the Charles Schwab Challenge

Colonial is one of the tougher tracks on the PGA TOUR schedule, but as a Par-70 that sees a lot of ‘less than driver’ strategy, I think these two could be poised to take advantage.

One under par isn’t asking a whole lot of two guys who’ve been in solid form as of late, and Spieth, of course, has nearly a decade of excellent experience at this hometown course.

Perhaps most importantly, these guys are going off early, and it looks like they’ll dodge the worst of the wind expected later Thursday afternoon

BTN Weekly Prop Play 
2025 Record: (4-12-3) [-8 units]

Tournament Matchup: Ryan Gerard (-105) v Ben Griffin

This matchup features two players in solid form, both striking their irons well in recent starts—but we’re locking in Ryan Gerard at near even money thanks to a few key stats. Over the last 12 rounds, Gerard ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, while Griffin has been strictly average at 77th in the field. While Griffin has strong SG:Putt numbers on bent greens, Gerard actually has slightly better putting numbers overall in recent history and has been putting well. With the BTN Model heavily weighting short game this week, we like Gerard’s performance in these key stats to carry us to the cash-out window.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR ignore the play. 

Jon Rahm clearly wasn’t too thrilled that we marked him as the Chalk Bomb for the second-straight major, and he nearly made us pay. But alas, the Green Mile and a dominant Scottie Scheffler ensured we wouldn’t suffer the embarrassment of an outright win from the Chalk Bomb at the PGA Championship.

Now onto Colonial Country Club, which once again plays host to the Charles Schwab Challenge. This event has the distinction of being the longest-running PGA TOUR event hosted at the same venue, so it’s safe to say we have plenty of historical data to work with this week.

For the week after a major, the field is surprisingly strong. The latest PGA Champion, Scottie Scheffler, is a +240 favorite — headlining a group that also includes Daniel Berger, Jordan Spieth, Tommy Fleetwood and Hideki Matsuyama.

According to our ownership projections, Scottie is eating up over 50 PERCENT of the DFS ownership this week. For those who struggle with math, more than half of the lineups in this week’s contests will feature the World No. 1.

While he certainly clears our 15% threshold to be eligible for the Chalk Bomb, I ain’t picking against him. So who will it be? As always, let’s take a look at the model our friends at Bet the Number have cooked up to see who might be an ideal fade at Colonial.

On a short track with tiny greens, the model for the Schwab is keying in on Strokes Gained Off the Tee, Strokes Gained Approach from 125-200 Yards, Strokes Gained Putting on Bent Greens and Scrambling. All stats are calculated over the last 30 rounds.

Here’s where this week’s Chalk Bomb ranks among the field of 135 in those categories:

SG: Off the Tee — 74th
SG: Approach from 125-200 — 96th
SG: Putting on Bent — 28th
Scrambling — 70th

Those numbers aren’t great for a guy who comes in as the 7th most-expensive DFS play this week at $9400. He did pick up a top five at Quail Hollow last week, and his last start at Colonial was a T12, but the three prior seasons saw him miss the cut in this event.

There are certainly worse plays out there, but at 16% ownership, there’s an edge to be gained by fading this guy if he underperforms.

So, with the honor of making his Chalk Bomb debut this week…

JT Poston, you are the Chalk Bomb!

Young artists get told they'll make no money.
Young doctors and lawyers just find that out after the loans hit.

We bless sneezes like they’ve been touched by angels. A cough gets nothing though? I would take a simple “Congrats” or something to be honest.

I went to get a pair of glasses today for the first time in years. Let me just say this: we need a much cooler word for “progressives.” They might make sense for me, but there’s no way in hell I’m ever admitting I actually wear those.

Alright folks—that’s all I’ve got for Charles Schwab at Colonial! Stay well, and good luck with all your PGA DFS lineups and bets. BOME!