The 2025 BMW Championship

Heavy rainfall is expected on Wednesday, but it will clear out in time for mostly sunny skies through rounds one and two. Wind speeds are mostly mild, but if there is a tougher wave due to the wind, it may be on Friday morning.

For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE

Kurt Kitayama -141 ($7600) vs Rickie Fowler +111 ($7900)

For our final matchup of the year, we’re going out with two headliners (kidding). But seriously, this is a huge discrepancy between DFS pricing and the sharp oddsmakers as Kitayama is a massive favorite in a 72-hole matchup against Rickie despite being $300 cheaper.

Neither has any course history to lean on at Caves Valley, as both players were absent from the field the last time the BMW was here in 2021, so this will be a fresh challenge.

Kitayama is the more “public” play this week, according to our Nut Hut Ownership Projections available in the Discord. Our count has him north of 19%-owned, while Fowler is hovering around 12%.

Over-Unders for the BMW Championship

We’re looking to close a strong UD year with a third-straight win. Since the 2025 Sentry, these plays are up 30 units - not too shabby, but let’s see if we can finish even better.

With heavy rainfall coming tonight, softer course conditions tomorrow should yield some lower scores. That said, it’s important to remember that this is a much different golf course than the one that saw a -27 winning score back in 2021. The course has been lengthened significantly (now a par-72), and by all accounts should play tougher.

Still, we’re backing a few of the top players in this week’s model to bag four birdies or more — something that might be even easier to do given the addition of two par-5s compared to 2021.

BTN Weekly Prop Play 
2025 Record: (9-17-3) [-7 units]

Rickie Fowler (-120) v Shane Lowry

Listen, folks — we’re calling it. The heater is on, and we’re not about to step off. This week, we’re riding Rickie Fowler to keep the streak alive over Shane Lowry at Cave’s Valley. The BTN Matchup Tool backs us up, with Fowler ahead or tied in 9 of 11 key stat categories.

They’re neck-and-neck in our overall tournament model, but Rickie’s recent edge off the tee could be the deciding factor on this track. Combine that with Fowler’s sharper form compared to Lowry’s up-and-down play, and the path looks clear. We’re trusting the numbers, the momentum, and a little of that old Rickie Fowler swagger to carry us through. Punch the ticket — Rickie gets it done.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR ignore the play. 

Here we are — the final Chalk Bomb of the 2024-25 PGA TOUR season. I gotta be honest, I’m not feeling great about it…

I suppose I shouldn’t have been surprised, given this week features the best golfers in the second-smallest field of the year, but I’m pretty terrified to fade just about every player north of 15% DFS ownership at the BMW Championship.

As you surely know by now, the Chalk Bomb is a popular player we’re choosing to fade. “Popular” being defined as those projected at over 15% ownership in DFS according to our proprietary projections available in the Tour Junkies Discord.

Based on that criteria, we have plenty of players to choose from — 11 to be exact, but nearly every single one ranks highly in this week’s model from our friends at Bet the Number. For the first time all year, there’s no “right answer” according to the data — at least not one I feel good about.

But nevertheless, we have to fade someone… so who does the model show is the most likely Bomb? This week, BTN is highlighting SG: Off the Tee, Driver Carry Distance, Strokes Gained Approach from 150-220 yards and Strokes Gained Putting from 5-15 feet. All stats are calculated over the last 40 rounds, with the exception of putting, which is over the last 20.

Here’s where this week’s Chalk Bomb ranks in the field of 50 in those categories:

SG: Off the Tee — 3rd
Driver Carry Distance — 3rd
SG: Approach from 150-220 yds — 28th
SG: Putting from 5’-15’ — 37th

See what I mean? Pretty good numbers — especially off the tee, which will be even more important at Caves Valley than the last time we saw this track in 2021. Since then, the course has been lengthened to a par 72 at over 7600 yards, making it one of the longest on TOUR.

Speaking of the renovation, so much has changed at Caves Valley that any course history from 2021 should be taken lightly. Or in this player’s case, completely disregarded because he wasn’t on TOUR four years ago…

You might be thinking, “Is he really going to fade this guy in back-to-back weeks? Even after his T9 in Memphis?” The answer is yes… but I’m not thrilled about it.

This is more about his price and UNREAL ownership percentage as he sits at 22.8% behind only Scottie Scheffler.

This could come back to bite me, but here’s hoping for a good send-off…

Ludvig Aberg, you are the Chalk Bomb!

Our ancestors would be baffled by the idea that you could “spoil your appetite”.

There should be a medicine that makes naturally messy people just slightly more organized. Not enough to make them go full OCD. Just a tad.

I don’t think anyone has ever cashed in a rain check. It’s basically just saying “let’s never speak of this again.”

Alright folks—that’s all I’ve got for the BMW Championship. Stay well, and good luck with all your PGA DFS lineups and bets. BOME!