The 2025 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview

The TOUR remains in SoCal, but the usually warm and dry weather has departed for at least the next few days. Thursday’s opening round should see clear if a little chilly, conditions, but Friday could bring some rain with wind gusts in the upper teens.

For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE

Patrick Cantlay -117 ($9,400) vs. Ludvig Aberg -103 ($9,900)

Once again Ludvig Aberg finds himself on the wrong end of the matchups market as the sharp books have the Swede as a slight underdog in a four-round matchup vs Patrick Cantlay despite a $500 discount on the latter in DraftKings DFS.

This might be due to Cantlay’s blistering form as well as his long history at Pebble. He enters this week on a streak of nine-straight top-25 finishes, and this will be his eighth start at Pebble — a venue where he boasts five top-11 finishes. That said, Ludvig seems to like Pebble too with a runner-up finish in his first visit last year.

These two are among the most popular plays this week according to our Nut Hut ownership projections available in the Discord. The pair rank 4th and 5th in overall ownership with both right around 18-19%

Welcome to the Show
Get to know the 2025 PGA Tour Rookies

Thanks to recent eligibility changes from the PGA Tour, 45 newly-minted Tour Cards were handed out ahead of the 2025 season. Each week, we’ll spotlight a few up-and-comers whose names will be important to know as the year progresses.

• Tim Widing - Sweden

  Swedish golfer Tim Widing earned his PGA TOUR card after back-to-back victories in April. He won the LECOM Suncoast Classic in a playoff, then set a Korn Ferry Tour record with a 31-under 253 at the Veritex Bank Championship, breaking marks for lowest 72-hole score relative to par, most birdies (33), and total birdies/eagles (34) in a 72-hole event. In 2024, Widing made his major debut at the PGA Championship and later finished T41 at the U.S. Open, though he has yet to make a cut through three events in 2025.

• Taylor Dickson - Gastonia, NC

  After four seasons on the Korn Ferry Tour, Taylor Dickson earned PGA TOUR membership with wins at the Astara Chile Classic and the Blue Cross & Blue Shield of Kansas Wichita Open. He finished No. 39 on the Korn Ferry Tour Points List in 2023, improving from No. 95 in 2022 and No. 77 in 2021. Dickson made his PGA TOUR debut at the 2024 Myrtle Beach Classic, finishing solo 69th as a sponsor exemption, but he’s finished no better than T72 in any of his first three starts in 2025. A product of Gastonia, North Carolina, he played four seasons at Winthrop University before turning professional in 2015, where he developed an unconventional setup position.

Over/Unders for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Finau was largely a complete and utter disappointment at Torrey, but at least he had the decency to cash his first round over to get a win for us on Underdog.

This week, I’m taking a pair of first-round unders — albeit on different courses. Cantlay opens on the easier Pebble Beach where a -3 seems quite doable for a guy with four-straight T11s or better at this event. Not to mention he’s coming off a T5 at the Amex, his ninth-straight top 25 going back to Pinehurst last year.

JT will start on Spyglass Hill where he fired a 68 to open his tournament in 2024. I think he stays hot following a runner-up at the Amex last time out.

BTN Weekly Prop Play 
2025 Record: (0-2-1) [-2 units]

Finish Position + First Rd Matchup Parlay +224
Denny McCarthy Top-30 (+110)
Rd. 1: Beau Hossler (-185) v Jake Knapp

Thanks to the aforementioned dud from Tony Finau, we’re still looking to get on the board in 2025.

We’re getting a little creative at Pebble and backing some phenomenal putters in a two-leg parlay. Denny is arguably the best Poa putter on Tour and has finishes of T26, T4 and T12 in his last three starts in this event.

As for Hossler, he jumps off this week’s model with his putting as well as bogey avoidance and par-5 scoring, and this track just fits his game so much better than Knapp who won’t be able to overpower Pebble. Hossler’s last three trips here yielded finishes of T14, T11 and solo third.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

Jason Day provided the first true W of the year for the Chalk Bomb with a T32 finish last week at the Farmers, so let’s keep it rolling in SoCal as we move onto an elevated field and a $20 million purse at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Like last week’s venue, both Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill are very familiar tracks and staples of the early season PGA Tour schedule. With that in mind, we have no shortage of data and recent history to draw from as we look for a big name to fade this week.

Everyone knows Pebble features the smallest greens on Tour, and at just under 7,000 yards, it’s a track that prioritizes iron play and putting over raw power off the tee.

As always, the Chalk Bomb is limited to players projected at over 15% ownership in DFS according to our proprietary projections available in the Tour Junkies Discord. With some of golf’s biggest stars making their 2025 debuts this week, we have plenty of fade options to choose from as eight star names meet our ownership threshold.

We start, as we always do, with our data nerds at Bet the Number who have identified some key data points that will drive success (or failure) on the course this week. They are: SG: APP from 175-225 yards followed by SG: Putting from 4’-16’ on Poa, Par-5 Scoring and Bogey Avoidance. *The putting stat is over the last 16 rounds while the rest cover the last 40 rounds.

With that in mind, here’s where this week’s Chalk Bomb ranks among the field of 82 in those stat categories:

• SG: APP from 175-225 Yards — 80th

• SG: Putting from 4’-16’ on Poa — 78th

• Par-5 Scoring — 39th

• Bogey Avoidance— 35th

But that’s not all. The Chalk Bomb’s record at Pebble is surprisingly poor given his talent, and perhaps that’s why he’s played this event so rarely. In just four career starts at Pebble (including two U.S. Opens), this player has just one finish better than T66.

At $10,700, only Scottie Scheffler is more expensive, and that combined with 17% ownership is not ideal. And who knows where his mind is at after the crushing overtime loss to Jupiter Golf Club this week…

With that said, Rory McIlroy… you are the Chalk Bomb!

Literally, at some point in history, somebody stretched some damn dried animal skin over a deep hollow bowl, hit it with some sticks, and was like well f me. This sounds pretty good.

I wonder if there are any fish that are afraid of heights.

Technically, thanks to grocery delivery services. Digiorno is now, in fact, delivery.

It’s sad to me that kids these days will never face building up the nerve to call a girl only to have her parent answer the phone.

Alright folks! That’s all I got for The Pebble Beach Pro-Am this week. Stay well and good luck with all your PGA DFS lineups and bets. BOME!