The 2024 ZOZO Championship

1. SG: Off the Tee Leaders last 36 rounds: 1. Lee, M.W.  2. Fishburn  3. Vegas 4. Stevens 5. Hoey 6. Young, Carson 7. Schauffele 8. Morikawa 9. Kitayama 10. McNealy

2. SG: Approach Leaders last 36 rounds: 1. Ghim 2. Schauffele 3. Spaun 4. Kitayama 5. Meissner  6. Griffin, Ben 7. Skinns  8. Morikawa 9. Hodges 10. Blair

3. SG: ARG Leaders on Bermudagrass last 36 rounds:  1. Homa 2. Schauffele 3. Matsuyama 4. McNealy  5. Morikawa 6. Rodgers 7. Phillips 8. Stevens  9. Kitayama 10. Cole

4. SG: Putting last 24 rounds:  1. Greyserman 2. Todd 3. Hall 4. Riley 5. Silverman 6. Perez 7. Kim, S.H. 8. Hossler  9. Schauffele 10. Rodgers

5. SG: APP from 125-200 last 36 rounds: 1. Ghim 2. Dahmen 3. Spaun 4. Griffin, Ben 5. Kohles 6. Novak 7. Kim, Chan 8. Fishburn 9. Meissner 10. Svensson

6. Top 10 in Distance from Edge of Fairway last 36 rounds: 1. Blair 2. Kohles 3. Pan 4. Todd 5. Svensson  6. Morikawa 7. Silverman 8. Hubbard  9. Im 10. McNealy

7. Top 10 in Bogey Avoidance: 1. Schauffele  2. Ghim 3. Spaun 4. Stevens 5. Fishburn  6. Morikawa 7. Meissner 8. Lashley 9. Novak 10. Hoey

8. Top 10 in Par 5 Scoring Average last 36 rounds: 1. Cole 2. Kim, S.H. 3. Kim, Chan  4. Hall  5. Meissner 6. Gotterup 7. Spaun  8. Hoey 9. Theegala 10. Fishburn

9. SG: Total at Accordia Narashino last 16 rounds: 1. Woodland 2. Cole  3. Hirata 4. Lee, M.W.  5. Hossler 6. Matsuyama 7. Im 8. Morikawa 9. Thomas 10. Theegala

10. DataGolf Course History vs Expectation: 1. Hirata 2. Woodland 3. Cole 4. Hossler  5. Kodaira 6. Hisatsune 7. Ishikawa 8. Lee, M.W. 9. Moore, Taylor 10. Iwata

Our models don’t offer as much detail this week given the remote location, but the current forecast does call for some fluctuating wind that could reach speeds of 20 mph. It’s difficult to identify any wave advantage, but the graphs below lean a touch toward the PM/AM wave if anything.

For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE

Sungjae Im -130 ($9800) vs. Sahith Theegala +107 ($10,000)

Our highlight match this week features a discrepancy near the top of the odds sheet where Sungjae Im is a heavy favorite in a week-long H2H against Sahith Theegala despite a $200 discount on the Korean in DraftKings DFS.

The pair has nothing but positive history at Accordia Narashino to lean on as each has played here at least twice and never finished outside the top 30. Both were here a year ago and each snagged a top-20.

According to our Nut Hut ownership projections available in the Discord, both guys are among the most popular plays this week. Sungjae ranks fourth in the field in terms of highest ownership at around 18% while Sahith is right behind him in six at just under 17%.

Over/Unders for the ZOZO Championship

Taking the free-square candy in the NBA to add some juice to this two-legger. Narashino has played pretty tough over the years, and oddsmakers are expecting more of the same as most of the Rd 1 totals were hardly below even-par 70.

Ghim jumps off the page on the BTN models this week, (he’s actually No.1), so I’m backing him to shoot a measly -2 on Thursday. On the flip side, JT hasn’t seen this track since 2020, and with a surprisingly strong field with the likes of Xander, Hideki, Morikawa, Sahith, Homa and others in play, I don’t think Thomas cracks the top 10 this week.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

We finally got one back last week thanks to Eric Cole’s dud at the Shriners, so let’s see if we can stay hot as temperatures around the country cool down headed into the home stretch of the fall season.

The TOUR heads across the globe this week to Accordia Golf Narashino in Japan for the annual “wtf is ZOZO” Championship.

As a reminder, the Chalk Bomb is limited to players projected at over 15% ownership in DFS according to our proprietary projections available in the Tour Junkies Discord. This week, we have eight golfers to choose from.

While Narashino has hosted this event on numerous occasions, it’s one of the few consistent TOUR stops that hasn’t featured ShotLink data — so we’re flying a little more blind than usual from a handicap perspective.

That said, our guys at Bet the Number still have a pretty sharp model based on the data we do have from previous results, and this week, they’re honing in on the following data points in addition to the usual SG: OTT, APP, ARG and Putting:

SG: Approach from 125-200, Driving Accuracy measured by Average Distance from Edge of Fairway and Bogey Avoidance.

These aren’t exactly strengths of this week’s big-name Chalk Bomb who is surprisingly making his return to competition in Japan since wrapping up last season with a T14 at East Lake. Here are his rankings among this week’s field of 65 over his last 36 rounds of action:

• SG: APP 125-200: 51st

• Distance from Edge of Fairway: 52nd

• Bogey Avoidance: 38th

On top of that, this player hasn’t shown up for the ZOZO since 2020 — so he may have some relearning of the course to do that the other top options in DFS don’t.

In fact, of the 12 players priced at $8800 or higher this week, the Chalk Bomb is one of only two players who haven’t played Narashino in either of the last two seasons

With an expected ownership right at 15%, this guy only just meets our eligibility threshold this week, but that’s enough for me to consider fading the University of Alabama grad…

So much like Jalen Milroe, Justin Thomas, you are the Chalk Bomb!

Everyone knows what soups and sauces are, but no one knows the exact point where a sauce becomes a soup and vice versa.

I have to imagine that coffee shop bathrooms have the highest poop to customer ratio out of any vendor.

Scented candles dictate way too much in the scent world. I mean, I don’t know if that’s really pumpkin spice. Who are you to say that I’m smelling Holiday Winters’ Morn? Get off your high horse Yankee Candle.

Alright folks, that’s all I got this week for the ZoZo Championship. Stay well and good luck with all your lineups and bets. Bome!