The 2024 RSM Classic Preview

1. SG: Off the Tee Leaders last 50 rounds: 1. Clanton  2. Champ 3. Dougherty 4. Aberg 5. Fishburn 6. Tosti 7. Yu 8. Mitchell 9. Stevens 10. Thompson

2. SG: Approach Leaders last 50 rounds: 1. Clanton 2. Glover 3. Ghim 4. Spaun 5. Smotherman  6. Hodges 7. Griffin, Ben  8. Mitchell 9. Norlander 10. Straka

3. SG: ARG Leaders on Overseed last 36 rounds:  1. Baddeley 2. Shelton 3. Bramlett 4. Montgomery  5. Simpson 6. Moore, Taylor 7. Hubbard 8. Blaird9. Hughes 10. Reavie

4. SG: Putting last 36 rounds:  1. Hughes 2. Whaley 3. Montgomery 4. Coody, Pierceson 5. Bridgeman 6. English 7. Lower 8. Kim, S.H.  9. McCarthy 10. Suh

5. SG: APP from 100-175 yards last 50 rounds: 1. Kohles 2. Westmoreland 3. Kizzire 4. Ghim 5. Spaun 6. Novak 7. Griffin, Ben 8. Dahmen 9. Sloan 10. Mullinax

6. Top 10 in Distance from Center of Fairway last 36 rounds: 1. Poston 2. Dahmen 3. Kuchar 4. Yu 5. Skinns  6. Thompson 7. Watney 8. Todd 9. Clanton 10. Straka

7. SG: Putting Leaders on Overseed Greens last 36 rounds: 1. Hughes  2. Griffin, Ben 3. McCarthy 4. Suh 5. Kuchar  6. Baddeley 7. Higgo 8. Montgomery 9. Malnati 10. Harman

8. SG: Putting vs Baseline from 10-20 Feet last 16 rounds 1. Kizzire 2. Kirk 3. Echavarria 4. Riley, Davis  5. Lower 6. Stevens 7. Hughes  8. Streelman 9. Todd 10. Tway

9. SG: Total at Sea Island last 12 rounds: 1. Aberg 2. Svensson  3. Power 4. Barnes  5. Moore, Ryan 6. Sigg 7. Hughes 8. Montgomery 9. Duncan 10. Simpson

10. DataGolf Course History vs Expectation: 1. Aberg 2. Barnes 3. Moore, Ryan 4. Svensson  5. Ramey 6. Westmoreland 7. Molinari, Francesco 8. Sigg 9. Berger 10. NeSmith

The Coastal Georgia breezes will be blowing down in Sea Island this week with steady speeds in the mid-to-low teens expected throughout the first two days. A look at the gusts shows we could see peak winds near 30 mph on Friday morning, so perhaps the AM/PM wave will have a slight weather advantage.

For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE

JJ Spaun -148 ($8400) vs. Eric Cole +118 ($8700)

This week, we’re honing in on a discrepancy in the $8k range where the sharp overseas oddsmakers have JJ Spaun as a heavy favorite over Eric Cole in a four-day head-to-head despite a $300 DFS price difference in the other direction.

Both have played this course before — and played it well — as they each have finishes of T3 or better. But even though Cole bagged a third-place last year in just his second start at Sea Island, we give the experience edge to Spaun who has played this event every year going back to 2017.

According to our Nut Hut ownership projections available in the Discord, both guys are among some of the more popular plays this week. Spaun is coming in at just under 14% owned while Cole is just ahead of him at 14.7%.

Over/Unders for the RSM Classic

Keeping it simple with a two-legger this week. Ben Griffin loves the Plantation Course at Sea Island, going as far as to say he’d win the tournament if all four rounds were played on that course (he plays it Rd. 1)

Harman on the other hand has openly said he’s hardly hit a ball as of late and isn’t really sure where his game is at. (Probably been busy watching the Dawgs in Athens).

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

We’ve logged back-to-back wins in the Chalk Bomb column as we head down the home stretch of the 2024 PGA TOUR season. Mackenzie Hughes did his job to suck it up down in Bermuda last week, but can we close out strong with one final fade in this calendar year?

Sea Island Golf Club is once again the site of the final true event of the season (the Hero is a waste of time), and the field of 130 making the trip is significantly stronger than those we’ve seen over the last few weeks.

Bigger names like Ludvig Aberg, Brian Harman and Si Woo Kim headline a group of popular plays eligible for this week’s Chalk Bomb.

As a reminder, the Chalk Bomb is limited to players projected at over 15% ownership in DFS according to our proprietary projections available in the Tour Junkies Discord. This week, we’ve got six players to choose from.

Sea Island is a familiar track for the pros and handicappers alike as the host of the RSM Classic for well over a decade. Based on past results and years of on-site scouting, the experts at Bet the Number have put together a model this week that keys in on SG: Off the Tee, SG: Approach from 100-175 yards and SG: Putting from 10-20 feet. Each of these stats is counted over the player’s last 50 rounds except the putting stat which is set to the last 16 rounds.

Looking at these numbers, the data points to one popular player in particular who might struggle in Sea Island.

Here’s his ranking in the field of 130 this week:

• SG: OTT — 101st

  • While this is far from a bomber’s paradise, the data shows that drivers who are about 20 yards longer on average will pick up one full shot per round on the field.

• SG: Approach from 100-175 yards — 70th

• SG: Putting from 10-20 feet — 84th

Fading this guy is a boom or bust play given his record at this event. In seven prior starts, the Chalk Bomb has three top-10 finishes, but he also has four finishes of T46 or worse including two missed cuts.

With that much variance, I’m not willing to lay the steep $10k on a guy who’s the third-most expensive DFS player in the field as well as the third-highest-owned at nearly 20%.

So for the final time in 2024… Denny McCarthy, you are the Chalk Bomb!

I have to believe that Yeti Cups are the most rinsed out, yet unwashed with soap, cups in America.

I bet the person who cooked rice for the first time ever in history made a crap ton more than they really intended to.

Fat chance and slim chance pretty much mean the same thing. I guess it’s up to you on whether or not you’re a fat shamer.

I wonder if anyone has ever tried to smoke seaweed.

Alright folks, that’s all I got for the RSM Classic, and for the 2024 Season! It’s been fun and I hope you’ve laughed a little along the way. Stay well and good luck with all your lineups and bets. Bome!