Texas Open Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

Texas Open Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

April 03, 2019

 This Week's Tour Stop Texas Open at TPC San Antonio 

The Masters is next week the Masters is next week LFG

I'm gonna be short & sweet for the opening this week as I have a special one planned for next week that I've been working on since basically the beginning of the year. But I promise I didn't short cut anything this week and think you'll find a lot of great info in both the head to head section as well as the 10 facts. TPC San Antonio is yet another really interesting course fit for several reasons: 1. It's one of the rare courses where strokes gained short game (almost) is more important that strokes gained ball striking. 2. Strokes gained around the green's importance here is annually in the top 5 every year of courses that don't change. 3. The GIR % at TPC SA are WELL below the average tour stop 4. The driving accuracy % here is also far less here than at the average PGA tour stop 5. Top 10 finishers have on average gained more strokes on the par 5's than anywhere else on the course. To me this just says target guys that gain strokes off the tee that also have good short games. Don't confuse that with just bombers, plenty of guys are below average in distance but still gain lots of strokes off the tee, hell Jim Furyk still gains strokes off the tee even though he only averages like 270 yards. 

One last note is I want to remind everyone that we're cranking out lots of new, #greatfantistic content every week on One Groove Low at

. Pat's new Fantasy Sommelier article is both great advice and laugh out loud funny, and our new season long betting piece is going to help settle the debate of course history, course fit, and recent form once and for all. For next week we'll also have some special Masters content as well! 

Leh Go!

 MATCHUP 1 Speef vs Horschel 

I've seen this line bounce back & forth from Billy -130 back to -110 all week. Spieth has to be the most polarizing figure of the week, & I've called everyone, including David & Pat, idiots for playing him so much the last year. It was a constant chalk bomb theme in 2018 to take the other side of whoever was going against Jordan because the numbers just weren't pretty. He says he's 'figured it out' and he did putt very well at the Players, BUT it also repressed his worst strokes gained tee to green rounds of the entire year. If he was to get under say 6% owned....yea I'd be interested, but I just don't see that happening. Billy on the other hand has been a sneaky train wreak disguised by really good putting. Billy has LOST strokes tee to green in 5 straight events, but because he's had the best 5 week putting stretch of his entire career his results really don't look that bad.  Both these guys are easy fades this week. 

MATCHUP 2

Finau vs. Kuchar

I was wondering when we were finally going to get a Tony Finau chalk week, & it appears that it has finally arrived. Tony is an interesting case right now because he's been his usual dominate self off the tee, and has actually putted extremely well the last 4 events with nothing but a bunch of middling finishes to show for it. If you look closely he's been a train wreak around the greens which he historically has gained strokes at. He's played well here in the past, and probably the biggest knock being his poor putting splits on bermuda. Kuchar  on the other hand is probably playing the best golf of his entire career dating back to the OHL. Very close to winning 3 times, really 4 times and has been solid across the board. Kuchar has also played well here in the past, and if you look at the strokes gained data from his last event, The Players (remember no data from the WGC which he finished runner up at) he was actually 2nd in the field in strokes gained tee to green and just had a terrible putting week. So event though Finau is the value in DFS, I love Kuchar at +130 against anyone this week. 

MATCHUP 3

Berger vs. Palmer

I'm actually mad that David spotted this line before I did for our weekly head to head betting picks. I for the life of me can't figure out why Berger is a -135 favorite over Palmer. The books think that Berger is a nice DFS value as he's $600 cheaper than Palmer, but as you'll see in the 10 facts, Ryan Palmer's name pops up quite a bit, and Daniel Berger's name pops up exactly zero times. His last 5 events (Berger) he's losing strokes on approach shots, around the green, and putting....plus he's played here once & missed the cut. Palmer on the other hand is at worst 2nd in course history in the field and is #1 in strokes gained tee to green at TPC San An against the field. His best putting surface is bermuda (check), he plays best on hard courses (check), and he plays best in windy conditions (check). The form hasn't been very consistant, but he does own 3 top 10's since the start of the wrap-around season, and well, just read the 10 facts. DB will most likely win a head to head bet this week at plus money. 

MATCHUP 4

Moore vs. Hoffman

This week more than any I can remember recently gives all you course history nuts plenty of opportunity to put your money where your mouth is. Guys with great history & ok to poor form: Palmer, Kirk, Moore, Laird, Steele, Hoffman, Spieth etc etc. For this particular match up Moore certainly has been playing better in 2019 than Hoffman but nothing that really blows you away. The head to head price is fair as Moore is $900 more expensive on DK, but from just a pure value perspective I really like the value for both betting and DFS on Hoffman. And plus when are Ryan Moore or Charley Hoffman ever owned more than 10%? (Moore is also playing to punch his Masters ticket)

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*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on FanShareSports.com. Stats about our boy this week:

  • In this very weak field of 142 players, he ranks 122nd in strokes gained putting

  • In this very weak field of 142 players, he ranks 98th in strokes gained around the greens

  • Over his last 12 rounds he's 60th in the field in opportunities gained

  • Over that same time period he's 121th in the field in birdies gained

  • He's a head to head pickem against Jimmy Walker who just so happens to be playing the worst golf of his career

  • He gains a mere 0.1 strokes on the field on difficult courses over his career so far

  • Over the last 50 rounds he ranks 80th in fairways gained

  • Over the last 50 rounds he ranks 44th in GIR's gained

  • In the two key approach shot yardage buckets he ranks 63rd & 39th in the field....AND that's the strength of his game!

  • Players at TPC San An gain more strokes on the par 5's than anywhere else on the course, this guy ranks 105th in the field in strokes gained on par 5's

  • Over the last 50 rounds he's 112th in the field in opportunities gained 

  • In that same time frame, he's 51st in the field in bogey avoidance

  • Four times this year he's lost OVER 4 strokes putting alone

  • He's 91st in DK scoring in the field the last 50 rounds

  • He played last week in the alt field event at Corales Punta and missed the cut! Which none of that bad data is going into his numbers for the year

  • He averaged a mere 33 putts per round, got up & down out of the sand 25% of the time, and got up down 54% the other times.....all well below PGA tour standards (33 putts per round is really bad by even Keegan Bradley standards)

  • His best finish this year is......37th

  • Most books have him at +275 for a top 20 finish, so the implied odds of him finishing outside the top 20 are 73.33%. 

is THE place to evaluate ownership in PGA DFS (spoiler, basically everyone that projects ownership in the industry uses FanShareSports as at least one input) and they have our guy projected at 17.3% this week....Joaquin Niemann, you're the Chalk Bomb!

It's the perfect time to join right before the Masters! Click the button below for 20% OFF FanShare Pro, just enter promo code 'tourjunkies'

1. 

Strokes gained tee to green leaders from last years Texas Open:

1. Landry 2. Kirk 3. Streelman 4. Moore 5. Baddeley 6. Walker 7. Niemann 8. Steele 9. Mullinax 10. Laird

2. 

Historical GIR gained leaders at TPC San An (Min 8 rounds):

1. Palmer 2. Moore 3. Furyk 4. Finau 5. Walker 6. Hoffman 7. Cauley 8. Laird 9. Els 10. Kuchar

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on Bermuda:

1. Gay 2. McCarthy 3. Billy Ho 4. Langley 5. Donald 6. Malnati 7. Burns 8. Fowler 9. Hadley 10. Furyk

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ bermuda greens, difficult to average scoring, difficult fairways to hit, at least moderate wind, & over 7400 yards.....your top 10 in total strokes gained are:

1. Palmer 2. Walker 3. Moore 4. Kuchar 5. Laird 6. Spieth 7. Hoffman 8. Finau 9. Furyk 10. Fowler....BTW....if you guys haven't been paying attention to this fact every week....it's basically nailed half the top 10 every event

5.

Top 10 in 'sneaky' course history:

1. Laird 2. Kirk 3. Baddeley 4. Horschel 5. Streelman 6. Cauley 7. Steele 8. Harman 9. Taylor 10. Hadley

6.

 Top 10 in proximity from the 150-175 yardage bucket and 200 yards + last 50 rounds (the 2 most popular approach shot distances):

1. Benny An 2. Hoffman 3. Kokrak 4. Fowler 5. DL3 6. Luiten 7. Taylor 8. Swafford 9. Svensson 10. Kang

7.

GIR'S gained backtests extremely well here at TPC San An, your top 10 the last 12 rounds:

1. Hoon-Lee 2. Kokrak 3. Vegas 4. Kuchar 5. Lebioda 6. Furyk 7. Palmer 8. Steele 9. Prugh 10. Knous 

8.

Top 10 in strokes gained ball striking (average, 8 rd min) at TPC San An:

1. Palmer 2. Moore 3. Finau 4. Taylor 5. Laird 6. Schniederjans 7. Kirk 8. Landry 9. Cauley 10. Hoffman

9. 

Top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds:

1. Armour 2. Landry 3. Swafford 4. Luiten 5. Kuchar 6. Furyk 7. Trahan 8. Long 9. Conners 10. Duncan

10.

Since we're back on a par 72, your top par 5 scorers are

 

: 1. List 2. Clark 3. Watney 4. Finau 5. Kang 6. Poston 7. Im 8. Schenk 9. Trainer 10. McCarthy

WIN A

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*If you finish Top 5 in the same DK contests, share it and we'll send you a TJ Hat from the Shop.

PAT'S PARTING WORDS

"You know how I know it's almost Masters week? Because I'm sneezing my dick off from all the pollen"

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