Everything is Windier In Texas

DB's Big Balls Betting Card & the 10 Key Stats can be found HERE!

I used to be of the mind that the 'Texas wind' narrative was absolute horse shit. Then I went to San Antonio, stayed at & played both courses at TPC SA, and humbly realized the Texas wind narrative is not in fact horse shit. I was really looking forward to writing this episode of the CB LAST year because of said stay late in 2019, but alas, Ca-vid foiled that plan as well. Luckily I (somehow) still own the same phone & took diligent notes while I played the Oaks course. The thing that stood out the most was the big (but oddly shaped) greens, pretty much always surrounded by absolutely MASSIVE bunkers. And I'm not just talking about wide bunkers, almost all of them had DEPTH...like you can't see the flag from the bunker even though your only 20 feet away. It's a great total driver course (hello Conners!). The fairways are reasonable but several holes have fairway bunkers or give you the risk/reward option to take on hazards to play to the fat part of the fairway & have a longer shot/worse angle. Lots of native area right off the fairways, if you're spraying the driver, it's gonna be a long day. The greens are bermuda grass with a surprising amount of slope for a resort course. The par 3's are all very tough. They're all over 200 yards, with the exception of 16th which has a bunker right in the middle of the green. Then we get to the wind...it is #constant all day, every day. This is a large part of what drives the scoring, & it looks like Thursday-Saturday you will have classic Texas wind with about 10 mph sustained with it gusting up to the low 20's all 3 days. 

As far as a wave advantage it looks like the late/early crowd will have about a 1-1.5 stroke advantage over the early/late group. Not a huge edge but a worthy tiebreaker if you're stuck between 2 guys. 

(Image & data as always courtesy of DataGolf). Note this week I'm looking at the relative importance of the course fit. So just like we described above, the Oaks course doesn't really favor just the accuracy guys or just the bombers off the tee. Lots of long approach shots from 175-200+, around the green actually matters this week, and good bermuda putters.  

Leh Go!

MATCHUP 1

Matsuyama vs. Conners

Matsuyama -116 vs. Conners +100

I'm betting that even though Hideki is $600 more expensive than Conners this week, a lot of you are probably surprised to see him as the head-to-head favorite. Conners recent form is certainly better, no doubt, but it's not THAT much better. Over the last 3 events, Hideki has gained 13.9 strokes T2G, & Conners has gained 17.6. So despite the way better finishes, the ball striking hasn't been that different. Putting has been the main difference in finishing results as Conners has actually gained 7.3 strokes the last 2 events, far & away a new career-high over a 2 event stretch. Conners has the course history edge with a 26th & a win, while Hideki has never played here. But even with the history edge, it's hard to not say that Hideki is actually a better course fit. He's a good total driver of the ball, good approach play, elite around the green. For DFS purposes it looks like Hideki is going to garner about 1/2 the ownership of Mr. Conners, so to me, the play is take Conners in H2H's & Hideki in GPP's. 

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MATCHUP 2

Scheffler vs. Spieth

 Scheffler -120 vs. Spieth +103

Some nice DFS value on Scheffler as he's $300 cheaper than Spieth yet the H2H favorite. Insert DB's two favorite mass categorizations of 'he's a good wind player' and 'he's a Texas boy' which just kills me because Texas is so big (approx 700 miles wide by 800 miles tall) it's the same as describing someone from Atlanta Georgia in the same breath as someone from Chicago Illinois (700 miles apart). Anyways, it looked like both of these guys were primed to make a run in the WGC matchplay but just ran into buzzsaws. Spieth is going to be a really interesting case this week. The box score crowd will think that Jordan has good course history here, but when you drill into the numbers he's actually been well below field average in GIR% every year except 2012. The last 3 times he's played in this event he's averaged AT WORSE 26.3 putts per round which is crazy. However, he had his best ball-striking event since 2018 at the Players 2 weeks ago and just had a very uncharacteristically terrible short game week. So lots of cross currents with Jordan, but I continue to be impressed with how his game has come back around. For Scottie, he's only played here once in 2019 but was really solid hitting almost 15% more GIR's than the field average. Like Hideki, he's another sneaky good course fit because he's a great total driver of the ball and has a super sneaky good around the green game. 

MATCHUP 3

Ancer vs. Palmer

Ancer -135 vs. Palmer +115

If you haven't noticed the trend, we're basically just discussing everyone that is projected to be owned at 20%+ this week. Both guys have very early Thursday tee times so you can safely bump them down 1 stroke in your projections. For course history, Abe is pretty ho-hum, with 3 made cuts, but a high finish of 42nd. He's been right at field average in GIR's hit all 3 times he's played here. Palmer has really good course history, w/ 3 top 10's, and lots of rounds above field average in GIR's hit. For course fit, Palmer is in fact a good wind player, A TEXAS BOY, and his best putting surface is bermuda. His around the green game isn't exactly elite, but his putter sans the WGC has been pretty good. Abe's course fit is ok at best. He is a good total driver of the ball, & has been good with his irons all year, but for the most part his around the green game & his putter have been #Poopy. 

Other interesting lines:HV3 -113 vs. Hadwin -103Hoffman -147 vs. Steele +126Davis -117 vs. Bradley +100Munoz -144 vs. Grace +123Moore -129 vs. Fowler +110Kirk -124 vs. ZJ +106Ancer -115 vs. Tringale -101Finau -131 vs. Spieth +112

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• He's in the slightly worse tee time draw

• HE'S NOT A CENTRAL SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BOY (aka 'Texas Boy'-DB)

• He's $2200 more expensive than his last event

• He's played here 3 times & has never finished higher than 42nd

• He has been quite poor around the greens recently, losing strokes over his last 20 events

• He's lost strokes putting in 5 straight events

• Bermuda is his worst putting surface

• On courses over 7400 yards he's 79th in the field in ball striking

• On courses over 7400 yards he's 76th in the field in DK points scored

• Over his last 50 rounds, he's 52nd in the field in ops gained

• Over his last 50 rounds, he's 74th in the field in scrambling gained

• Over his last 50 rounds, he's 39th in the field in par 5 scoring

• In the 2 main approach shot buckets, he's 59th in the field in proximity

At 17.7% calculated ownership % on Fantasy National (5th highest) Abe Ancer, you're the Chalk Bomb!

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

In 'The Little Mermaid', the stairs in King Triton's palace are utterly useless.

Why is the word abbreviation so long?

Why is it that if someone tells you that there are 1 trillion stars in the universe you believe them, but if they tell you a wall has wet paint, you will have to touch it to be sure?

Synchronized swimming is a wild sport...how do you even get into it???

I've always wondered, where do forest rangers go to 'get away from it all'?

Why the hell is there a floatation device under my PLANE seat & not a damn parachute???

On April Fools Day (tomorrow), Pornhub should make a video where a hot male plumber goes to a sorority house & fixes the toilet & just leaves like normal

Seeing as how both Batman & Ironman's only real superpowers are that they are super rich & very smart, Bill Gates & Steve Jobs sure turned out to be real disappointments