Texas Open

Digging into the Chalk

So remember a couple weeks back when we did a dive into how players games change over time and are far from a static straight line? I thought for this weeks chapter we would look at one of the highest projected owned players & see if we can gleam anything from the information (in full disclosure I haven't look ahead at the data so it might be exactly what Dennis Green always said:  

The player I want to look at this week is Adam Scott. The M.O. on Scott that seems universally accepted is he's an elite ball striker with a terrible short game, especially since the anchored putter ban went into effect. All of the following data comes directly from fantasynational.com and datagolf.ca. We'll break down each part of his game, so strokes gained off the tee, approach, around the green, and putting. 

Here is Adam's strokes gained off the tee cumulative total for the past 6 years, doesn't get much better than this. While DJ & Rory get a lot of the headlines for gaining strokes off the tee, AS has been right there with them for the better part of a decade. On a per year basis his average strokes gained per round has been between 0.5-1 for the entire data sample, which even at the bottom of his range puts him in the top 25 on tour every year, amazing consistency. 

Here is AS's strokes gained approach plotted on a 40 week moving average. Now he has consistently gained strokes approach but a cumulative chart is a little deceiving as its hard to see the volatility. The dotted line in the middle is 0, so you can see that twice AS has gone from basically the best ball striker on tour (in fact in 2016, he basically doubled the 2nd best guy & was pretty much as good as Tiger circa 2000 & 2007). BUT you can also see that AS has almost touched the zero line several times and has been prone to really great ball striking runs & really bad ball striking runs. Recently he has been trending back up as he has gained at least 1.7 strokes approach in 4 out of his last 5 events. BUT his last event in which we have shotlink data (API) he lost 2.5 strokes approach, his second worst total since the 2015 WGC. 

Here is AS's strokes gained around the green, & it's pretty much what you would expect, he had one good year between 12'-13' and has hovered around breakeven for most of the last 6 years bouncing back & forth between losing a quarter of a stroke & gaining a quarter of a stroke. He has had 3 nice events in a row though as he has gained at least 2.3 strokes around the green in 3 straight. 

And finally the part everyone has waited on....above is Adam's cumulative strokes gained putting since 2012. He originally went to the long putter at the beginning of 2011 (side note: he won this event in 2010 with a short putter) and used it until the end of the PGA tour season of 2015. I've drawn a red line on the chart to indicate where he went back from the long to the short putter. This chart is very fascinating to me for many reason....1 thing that really stands out is that his worst putting stretch was actually WITH the long putter. The whole purpose of this exercise is to 'remove' labels, but it sure seems like when Adam is trending with the putter (in either direction) we need to try & ride the wave. As you can see he's currently at his lowest cumulative strokes gained putting in 6 years, and has lost strokes putting in seven straight shot link data tracked events dating back to the PGA Championship (no shotlink data from the WGC or Masters). 

The take away? Two parts of AS's game have been amazingly steady, he absolutely is and always has been an elite DRIVER of the ball, and he's pretty much always hovered around breakeven for his around the green game. The other two parts of his game have been amazingly volatile with sustained up trends and down trends. Twice in the last 6 years AS has lead the PGA tour in strokes gained approach, and twice he's been 87th & 88th. He's has three runs where he's actually gained strokes putting, and several more where he's lost strokes putting. So where do we stand today? Elite driver:check, Elite ball striker: he's trending back in the right direction but API scares me, Around the Green: breakeven but has been excellent recently, Putting: long term is down, and recent form putting is basically as bad as he's ever been. 

THE Chalk Bomb

Short and sweet this week (no it's not Adam Scott, but I will most likely fade him in tournaments because when your as bad a putter as he is, it makes you that much more volatile + he'll probably be 20% owned). What if I told you this weeks chalk bomb is the most expensive he's been all year, with a 1k price increase since last week despite finishing outside the top 30 at Harbour Town. What if I also told you that while he's a decent putter (top 50 on tour), bermuda grass is easily his worst surface by almost half a stroke per round. What if I also told you that he has historically struggled in windy conditions, playing over a half stroke per round worse in high winds. What if I also told you he's in the meat of the bad side of the draw as he's AM/PM which as it stands right now looks to have a disadvantage. Oh and by the way he missed his only cut here. Add in that he'll be 20% owned, & it makes for an easy fade. Xander Schauffele, your the chalk bomb! PS. He might be sponsored by Baby Gap, Xander if your reading this, team TJ can get you some adult sized shirts!

Ten Facts You Need to Know so You can be Correct

1. Our boy Bowdo is gonna play his dick off and make the cut, you heard it here first!2. Top 5 guys that gained strokes tee to green at last years Valero but lost strokes putting (aka got unlucky) 1. Party Marty Laird 2. Garrigus 3. Ogilvy 4. Nick Taylor 5. Streelman3. Top 5 guys that gained strokes putting at last years Valero but lost strokes tee to green that made the cut (aka got very lucky) 1. McDowell 2. Thompson 3. Wee Kim 4. Summerhays 5. Crane4. While this does appear to be a bombers course, half of the top 12 finishers last year gained less than 0.39 strokes per round off the tee, the year before half of the top 25 gained less than 0.38. 5. Because of the high winds and a generally tough course, good scrambling is more important here than at most courses with about a 20% premium placed on it compared to the 'average' tour event.6. Top top strokes gained around the green last 24 rounds? 1. Baddeley 2. Na 3. Laird 4. Cejka 5. Haas 6. Lovemark 7. Ollie 8. List 9. Gay 10. Rodgers (11. Moore)7. Top 10 Bermuda putters in the field this week last 50 rounds: 1. Gay 2. Perez 3. Chalmers 4. McDowell 5. Whee Kim 6. Bryan 7. Snedeker 8. Hossler 9. Summerhays 10. Villegas8. Bottom 10 Bermuda " ": 1. Palmer 2. Garrigus 3. JP 4. Knox 5. Piercy 6. Rodgers 7. Bradley 8. Kokrak 9. C.T. Pan 10. Nick Taylor9. Top 10 Strokes gained Tee to Green at last years Valero: 1. Chappell 2. Villegas 3. Tway 4. Party Marty 5. Palmer 6. Baddeley 7. Garrigus (MC) 8. Nick Taylor 9. Ogilvy 10. Matt Jones Bonus fact: Chappell, Taylor, Palmer were the only 3 to also finish in the top 20 T2G in 201610. Top 5 with 'sneaky' course history, so Hoffman won't be on here: 1. Baddeley (I have not heard anyone talk about him, but given his talent level he's the real course horse) 2. Summerhays 3. Nick Taylor 4. Chappell (thats right! Don't know why but his upside here seems to be flying under the radar for the defending champ) 5. Furyk 

New Contest Alert

So we've got WAY to many listeners to not be seeing Goalby up at the top of the leaderboards every week in the DFS streets. If anyone finishes in the top 5 of the Fore ($4), Best Ball ($8), or Dogleg ($33) on DraftKings, we'll send you a TJ hat, AND if you can take one down with the TJ logo at the top when it's all said & done, we'll send you a brand new TaylorMade driver on us! Literally all you have to do is change your avatar & screenshot us those green screens! Bome! Just use the link here to change your avatar: TourJunkies Avatar