St Jude CB 2023

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Pretty interesting weather week in store. The forecast from Mid-day Wednesday shows the morning gusts slowing down but still substantial. Also notable on Thursday is the shift in direction from a North wind to a South wind for those teeing off later. Made sure to join the LIVE chat tonight for latest on weather and our thoughts on what it all means!For final thoughts on waves, weather, and more...make sure to join the LIVE chat tonight starting around 9 PM ET in the NUT HUT.

Patrick Cantlay -138 ($9800) vs. Viktor Hovland +114 ($10,200)

If you look at head to head matchup odds or even the outright markets, it's clear the sportsbooks and DFS guys disagree on these two players this week. Cantlay opened up -125 in this matchup at the sharp books before being bet up further to his current price of -138.You will have to pay up $400 in DFS if you want to take the Viktor side, but it does appear you will be able to get him at about half the ownership of PC. Neither has had great success to speak of at TPC Southwind in the past.The long and short term stats from these two players are strikingly similar, it just comes down to who you think is poised for a playoff push this time of year. In the past, this has been CantlaySZN. This year...?

Rickie Fowler -110 ($9500) vs. Tony Finau -110 (8700)

The oddsmakers have made this a dead even head to head matchup while the DFS pricing is $800 apart. Rickie has made a resurgence in form while Tony was fully on board the struggle bus until a T7 at the 3M open in his bid to repeat.Finau's last 3 appearances at this event have been solid (5th, 26th, 20th) while Rickie only managed a 64th place finish last year before not playing the year prior. Both players appear as if they will be in the same ballpark ownership wise this week, somewhere between 10-15%.The big story here is the insane journey of the line movement. Fowler actually opened up -147 favorite before EVERYONE bet Finau into a spot where he flipped the odds and became a slight favorite. Since, it has now settled into even money juice at -110.

Andrew Putnam -122 ($6400) vs. Adam Svensson -102 ($6700)

At $6400 in DFS this week, Andrew Putnam appears to be pretty solid value as he now sits a favorite over Adam Svensson who has shown glimpses of returning form. Putnam's prowess around Memphis is real, he's finished inside the top 5 in 2 of his last 3 starts at this event.It's not however going unnoticed by DFS players, as he looks like he is going to be over 10% owned at his cheap price given the latest projections in the Nut Hut Research Center.You can likely catch a small break on Svensson who will likely check in around 7% ownership. Some bettors have liked his side as well in this matchup, moving his current line to -102 after opening around +110 in this matchup. Good luck in Memphis!

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. Last week at the Wyndham Championship, JT Poston blew up the chalk bomb and continued his run of great form with a T7 finish. Hard to argue it was lucky either, as he shot 68 or better everyday. In the end, we should have definitely gone with Denny McCarthy haha. Let's move onto Playoff Season and we won't have any players worried about missing the cut this week as they will all get the 4 rounds. A slightly different format that often rewards aggressive players is in store for the St Jude, so let's try and isolate a player who is chalk and likely to under-perform in the heat of Tennessee.The pricing this week is pretty balanced and coupled with the high end strength of the field, the Nut Hut ownership projections only have 5 total players in the field projected to be over 16% owned in contests. Now, what if I told you that one of those players has missed 6 cuts and only posted TWO top 10 finishes in the last 6 months! For me atleast, this weeks CB selection jumped right off the page immediately. Here is my case besides them basically under-performing this entire season and now being popular somehow.Let's start by looking into a deep analysis on the proven strength. It's iron play. With wedges into greens, he may be the most precise player on Tour, ranking 1st on the 2023 season from 50-150 yards. We have 8 par 4's this week measuring over 450 yards, plus two par 5's, and another four par 3's that averaged 185 yards. Point being, he's not likely to be hitting from the range that is his clear strength on 14 of the 18 holes this week. As you start to look into his stats from 150-200 yards, where the majority of his approach shots will come in from, you do see a slight dip in performance as he ranks outside the top 15 on the season.Now let's look at this players weakness. No surprise, it's the putter which is downright awful. He ranks 140th of Tour this season in Total Putting and is shaky at best from both short and long range. I think the best comp in terms of the putting surfaces this week is the Florida tracks. The CB this week is unfamiliar at best in Florida, typically electing to skip the Florida swing and with good reason. Bermuda grass is by far their worst putting surface as they average losing 1.6 strokes PER EVENT on Bermuda grass throughout their career. Staggeringly bad on Bermuda, even for their standards. If you look at their 10 best performances of the season, NONE of them featured Bermuda greens.We're talking about a popular player that came into this season with high expectations from fans and media alike. This being the case, after a disappointing start, it feels like people are eager to jump back on board the train after one decent showing in a garbage field this summer. It's not like it was last week either, it was over 6 weeks ago and they followed it up with a bad missed cut since. I understand some of the course fit metrics and proven track record around TPC Southwind for this player, but for me this just doesn't feel like the spot where this player finally gets it back headed in the right direction given the demands of the environment and quality of the field they are competing against.There you have it. I just can't take on that much ownership for a player in which I have zero trust in making putts when it counts and it feels like their potential this week to perform well is heavily inflated by some who got an early good betting price. But this is DFS and therefore, full fade for me. With that being said...At nearly 17% projected ownership in DFS, Collin Morikawa, you are the chalk bomb this week in Memphis!

There's nothing worse than when the jig is up.Cell phone pouches that clip to your belt will always be hilarious. Is mayonnaise basically egg jam? I think we're all subconsciously waiting for a new cheese to be invented. I don't understand why no one tries to make a better fortune cookie. What if David never hits another outright bet ever again? Alright, that’s all I got this week! I hope you enjoy the first event of the playoffs at the St. Jude Classic. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!