St. Jude

St. Jude Classic

No long intro this go around as we have a TON of interesting head to head matchups/info this week, but I'll have a very interesting and interactive intro next week for the US Open. We again find ourselves with a very weak field and yet another accuracy course. From backtesting a lot of the data though, this is one of the true 'less than driver' courses. We get into the age old debate on whether or not the bombers just club down & they also become more accurate or if it truly elevates the short hitters. From the data this looks as if it's a true hybrid course where anyone can win. 

Finding Value & Information in Head to Head Matchups

This is something I've been incorporating more & more into my weekly analysis. Essentially we look at the head to head matchups posted on mybookie to see where the books disagree with the DFS world and where we can find value. Some weeks the DFS world & the books are in almost complete agreement, but most of the time there are clear differences of opinion that we can take advantage of. Last week we highlighted Rickie Fowler being a -140 favorite over Tiger even though Tiger had better odds to win, was in better form, & a past champion (Rickie ended up beating him by 2 strokes). It ended up being a great clue as to where the sharp money was & what the books were expecting. So lets look at a couple that are standing out this week: BTW, LOTS of great matchups/info this week!DJ has been a really interesting case all year. He hasn't exactly been 'disappointing' as his worst finish this year is 17th, but if you've been rostering him at his usual top 2 or 3 DFS price you probably haven't seen a ton of return on your money. Now we arrive at an accuracy venue that DJ has great history at as a former winner, but accuracy is Stenson's main calling card as he's been hitting an unreal 82% of his fairways the last 6 weeks & is #1 in the field for good drive % the last 50 rounds. I was extremely surprised to see that the books are so high on DJ vs a guy that on paper looks like a great fit. 

This line makes the first line that much more interesting, as Stenson is a decent favorite over Koepka despite Brooks having great course history & fresh off a 2nd place finish his last time out. The books have Stenson as their #2 guy this week despite Koepka having better outright odds....great value since he's $700 cheaper on DK this week. Niemann being a slight favorite over Uihlein was a touch surprising as Uihlein's buzz has definitely overshadowed the young Chilean this week. Niemann's ball-striking has been excellent since his Masters debut (honestly didn't realize just how good it's been until I really dug into it), though his putting and short game have been extremely volatile week to week. Uihlein certainly has the form as well, though when you dig into his numbers the driver can get quite wild, & his around the green game is even more volatile than Niemann's....I think the books have this line right.

Woah, Phil is $1300 more expensive on DK this week AND has better odds to win, but the books have these two as a pick em. Ever since Phil won at the WGC one or several parts of his game have been off every week, and if you remember when we did a deeper dive into Phil's player archetype, he actually isn't the short game wizard everyone thinks/thought he is/was....this season he's almost LOSING strokes around the green. Also for never having won the event, Phil has about as good a course history as you can have while Finau is playing here for the first time. The books have Finau as a big favorite against a couple other players that we'll get to in a minute. Another example of great value vs. DK price. Crane is $700 cheaper than Harry E but is the slight favorite in head to head betting. Both of these guys are former champs here, and Crane has been sneaky good 2 out of the last 3 events with an 11th & 8th. He won't be sneaky this week but this is further evidence that he's a great value at just 7400. 

Arguably the most surprising line of the week here. Berger has played this event twice, and won it twice, yet is a dog to Benny A who has never played the event. Benny A hit the ball about as well as you can without winning last week, as he gained more strokes tee to green than anyone that played in last weeks event. Berger on the other hand has zero top 10's (Brian Harman has 7, just think about that for a second) on the season. If your a course history kind of guy, here's your chance to put your money where your mouth is!The battle of the chalk! Both are projected to be over 20% owned this week, and are virtually the same price, yet List is one of the biggest head to head favorites this week. I think it's both a vote for List, and a vote against The Rat, as you take a closer look, Luke's numbers (sans Texas Open) are all basically right in line with where he's been all season. If you compare apples to apples numbers from the events that they both played in together, List has beat the breaks off the Rat every single time, and the books are expecting no different this go around. 

'Brian Gay is the biggest head to head favorite this week,' words you never thought you would hear! I've seen Braden's name get mentioned quite a bit this week for someone who is still playing college ball. He did finish 4th here a year ago, but it was 100% short game driven, don't get cute. Other interesting lines:Scott Piercy -130 v Joel Dahmen +110DJ -170 v Koepka +145Finau -165 v SchwartzelStricker -130 v CH3 +110If any of these prices look good to you, check out our boys over at mybookie who have really upped their golf offerings thanks in large part to David & Pat. They now offer everything from first round leader bets, matchups, top 10's, futures, and of course outrights to win. Just click the button below and use promo code:'TOURJUNKIES' for a 50% deposit bonus!

THE Chalk Bomb

Things I know for a fact:1. This is an accuracy course, but can be 'over powered' to an extent if* your long enough2. This player is not accurate, and is right on the edge of what I would call 'long enough'3. Our favorite setup for the perfect fade in any situation is A. DFS price is at a season high B. Highest projected ownership of the season C. Inconsistent player D. Bad course fit E. Underdog in equal head to heads F. Poor/no course history4. Our chalk bomb this week is A. The highest price he's been all season B. Is projected to more than double his previous ownership high C. Has missed the cut 38% of the time so far this year D. Is extremely volatile with his driver and total driving E. He is an underdog in equal head to heads F. He missed the cut his lone try herePeter Uihlein, your the chalk bomb!

10 Facts to Milk the DFS Teet

1. Top 10 strokes gained Tee to Green leaders from last year's St. Jude: 1. Berger 2. List 3. Joel Dahmen 4. Chez Reavie 5. D Bozzelli 6. Chappel 7. English 8. Chad Campbell 9. Phil 10. Ben Crane2. Top 10 strokes gained Tee to Green leaders from last week that are playing this week: 1. Ben An 2. Peter Uihlein 3. List (big drop off from Uihlein(4th) to List (23rd)last week) 4. DJ 5. Lingmerth 6. The RAT 7. Phil 8. Garnett 9. Niemann 10. Sung Kang3.  Bottom 10 worst (relative) Bermuda putters in order of terribleness (relevant guys): 1. Lingmerth 2. JB Holmes 3. Kevin Tway 4. Koepka 5. Harry English 6. Scott Stallings 7. Chad Campbell 8. James Hahn 9. Ryan Palmer 10. Brandt Snedeker4. Top 10 bestest (relative) Bermuda putters in order of bestness (relevant guys): 1. Murray 2. Chappell 3. Horschel 4. List 5. Benny An 6. Dahmen 7. Wes Bryan 8. Chris Kirk 9. Brian Gay 10. CT Pan5. Strokes gained approach almost always matters more than any other stat, so your top 10 strokes gained approach last 24 rounds is: 1. Piercy 2. Niemann (told you he's been good!) 3. Stenson 4. Cink 5. DJ 6. Tyler Duncan 7. Corey Conners 8. Phil 9. Dahmen 10. Benny An6. Top 10 guys that hit the most fairways at TPC Southwind (small sample size rules apply here): 1. Stricker (of course) 2. Stenson (of course) 3. Summerhays 4. John Peterson 5. Chez 6. JB Holmes (very interesting) 7. Sam 'Pat's boy' Saunders 8. HV3 9. Tway 10. Billy Hurley III7. Top 10 course history guys: 1. Berger (duh) 2. Phil 3. DJ 4. Koepka 5. Ben Crane 6. Stricker 7. Schwartzel 8. Chez 9. Matt Jones 10. Billy HO8. Bottom 10 guys that hit the least fairways at TPC Southwind (small sample size rules apply here): 1. Putnam 2. Piercy 3. List 4. Power 5. Uihlein 6. Baddeley 7. Mullinax 8. Huh 9. Scott Brown 10. CH39. I was searching to see if anyone had ever won the same tournament 3 times in row (Berger can obviously do that this week) and was very surprised to see that it's happened 26 times!10. Then in an unrelated search I wanted to see who had the most consecutive wins (not same event)...Byron Nelson won 11 events in a row in 1945! Tiger has won 7 in a row, 6 in a row, & 5 in a row all at different points in his career. That literally seems unfathomable in today's PGA. 

Win a FREE M2 Driver!

So we've got WAY to many listeners to not be seeing Goalby up at the top of the leaderboards every week in the DFS streets. If anyone finishes in the top 5 of the Fore ($4), Dogleg ($33), or Pressure Putt ($444) on DraftKings, we'll send you a TJ hat, AND if you can take one down with the TJ logo at the top when it's all said & done, we'll send you a brand new TaylorMade driver on us! Literally all you have to do is change your avatar & screenshot us those green screens! Bome! Just use the link here to change your avatar: TourJunkies Avatar