The Sony Open 2024 Chalk 💣

We could be in for a blustery week on the islands. As of Wednesday morning, the forecast calls for significant breezes and gusts well into the 20 MPH range. It looks like it should calm down for those who survive the cut and make the weekend, but Thursday/Friday breezes should be taken into consideration and will affect scoring in the early rounds.

For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pmET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE!

Chris Kirk -154 ($9500) vs. Sahith Theegala +123 ($10,000)

So much for recency bias! Well, at least for Sahith… Oddsmakers are not buying him after his runner-up at the Sentry as he comes in as a BIG underdog to last week’s winner Chris Kirk in a 72-hole matchup. However, there’s definitely some bias baked into Theegala’s DFS pricing as he’s $500 more expensive.

Kirk comes into Waialae with a huge experience and course history advantage, and on a course that’s one of the most predictive on TOUR, that means something. The Georgia boy has played this event 13 years running and amassed 5 Top 10s in that time. Theegala on the other hand has just one prior start, a T48 back in 2022.

Looking at our Nut Hut ownership projections, it’s no surprise to see Kirk drawing roughly 18% ownership compared to 12% for Theegala.

Alex Noren -131 ($7900) vs. Will Zalatoris +107 ($9300)

I get it, we’re all excited to see Willy Z make his return after almost a year off due to injury. But should he really be one the top 10 most-expensive DFS plays this week? Clearly, the sharps think not, as he is a shockingly big underdog to Alex Noren despite a $1400 difference in price on DraftKings.

The disagreement between the two surely isn’t due to course history, as there’s only one prior start at the Sony between them, Noren’s T32 effort in 2020.

I guess oddsmakers are expecting a little rust from Willy in his first “real” start in 10 months (not counting last month’s Hero). Neither guy looks to be a popular play this week with both projecting around 6-7% ownership, but if you’re looking for a potential edge, Noren could be an option.

Justin Rose -120 ($8200) vs. Hideki Matsuyama -101 ($9000)

As evidenced in Matchup 1, sharp bettors have notoriously short memories, and they have no problem writing off Hideki’s win here two years ago in favor of Justin Rose. While the Englishman is $800 cheaper than his Matsuyama, Rose is a significant favorite at -120 on the sharp books.

We shouldn’t discount Hideki’s victory, but his body of work at Waialae doesn’t stack up very well to Rose. Outside of 2022, Matsuyama has no other top-10s at the Sony. And although it’s been a few years since Rose was last here, he has three top-20s and a runner-up finish in just five starts.

Both are projected to have similar ownership in our Nut Hut models with Rose potentially a couple of percentage points higher. Perhaps the slightly chalkier play will prove worth it in the 8-9k range this week.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

I’m tempted to quit while I’m ahead because so far, I’m perfect for 2024! Viktor Hovland laid a giant orange egg in the form of a T22 finish at the Sentry to get my era of the Chalk Bomb off to a flying start. But like any true gambler, I can’t leave the table while it’s hot! That and DB and Pat wouldn’t appreciate the one-week tenure.

So how do we follow it up? Waialae is a very different venue than Kapalua, and despite a relatively strong field compared to previous years, there are much fewer ‘big names’ to fade. And quite frankly, looking at our Nut Hut projected ownership data, I’m a little hesitant to bet against most of the guys that will meet our >15% threshold to qualify for the Chalk Bomb.

So we start with our team of nerds (sorry, analysts,) at Bet The Number to get a sense of what matters most around this course and which player’s games might be a bad fit. If you watched DB’s course breakdown video earlier this week, you know Waialae is a true second-shot golf course that doesn’t require mammoth drives off the tee to go low. Of course, distance always helps, but a look at recent winners reveals more accurate ball-strikers like our sweet prince Si Woo Kim and some dude named Kevin Na as opposed to the brawny bombers we’re used to seeing dominate other venues. This week’s Chalk Bomb is dangerously reliant on his muscular drives while gaining just .036 strokes on approach over his last 50 rounds.

Speaking of DB’s course preview, he also pointed out a special nugget of knowledge brought to us by the BTN model. With plenty of doglegs and overhanging trees just off some of these Waialae fairways, left rough % is one of the stats our model is prioritizing this week. The Chalk Bomb ranks near the bottom of the field with roughly 17% of his errant drives missing on the left side, which could hurt him this week - especially when you consider the high winds we’re expecting early on.

Finally, the sharp line movement pointed us away from Viktor last week, and I’m inclined to follow their lead again here. Si Woo Kim, Harris English, J.T. Poston and Adam Svensson are all SIGNIFICANT head-to-head favorites over the Chalk Bomb at one especially sharp book despite the fact that all but the Postman are cheaper plays on DraftKings DFS. So for my money, I’d sooner take one of those(especially you Si Woo) than this guy.

And that’s why… Ben An, you are the Chalk Bomb!

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a rotten uncooked noodle.

The world is more stable in years ending with an even number. You don’t even need to fact check that. Trust me.

Technically if you tell someone to look me in the eyes, they can really only focus on one eye. The other one is just in their periphery.

Is there a minimum setting for cruise control? I mean, can you set it to 1 mph?

Alright, that’s all I got this week! I hope you enjoy the classic Waialae Country Club and the Sony Open. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!