Sony Open Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

This Week's Tour Stop Sony Open @ Waialae

Let the Grind Begin!

2020. Full Field. 500 Fed Ex Points (the real incentive)!!!!! 2-year exemption. 29 straight weeks of tournament golf (more if you include the Olympics). Let's do this. You would think opening week would lead to a lot more questions than answers, but historically it's been a pretty straight forward event. It's one of the stronger course fit events as distance (while it ALWAYS matters) is de-valued, and par 4 scoring is extremely important (par 70). I really like the total driving statistic this week because the fairways are difficult to hit at Waialae but the scoring is generally easy. Studs & duds should be EXTREMELY popular this week with 93!!! guys priced below 7k on DraftKing. Lots of the mid-priced guys should go super under-owned and I would encourage you to leave money on the table with several chalky pockets of players. We generally double our readership this week so I'm going to outline what the Chalk Bomb is/is not one more week. Good Luck this season & may your screens be green you pampered Fucks!With golf DFS & betting you better have a process you believe in. You can go for several weeks, sometimes months without a solid win (for GPP purposes, & betting on straight winners). And that's where the chalk bomb is here to help you. This is a process-based piece of content, with its sole purpose to help you make better decisions. We have lots of new readers at the start of every season so here is a quick recap on what the chalk bomb is/is not and it can best help you throughout the season. What the chalk bomb is: The chalk bomb section of the email is a balance of the highest owned (projected) golfer that I feel has the highest probability to fail. Sometimes this player is 15% owned, sometimes 50%. I always try to let the data lead me where it wants to take me When I say ‘fail’ that can mean several things. Take for example Dustin Johnson 2 years ago at Riviera. He was over 45% owned across most contests, was the most expensive player in the field, and was the chalk bomb. He finished in 17th place. Now some would say that's far from a bad result but in reality, that's a great result for being the chalk bomb. Anyone that owned DJ that week with a 17th place finish had absolutely no shot at winning any tournament, which is our main focus here. It's best to visualize the chalk bomb as a sliding scale....the more expensive/higher owned a player is, say 10k+ and 20% owned, the less they have to do to 'fail'...anything outside a top 10-15 finish is successful. The lower the ownership and cheaper the player is, say for example $7500 and only 10% owned...they pretty much need to miss the cut a tool that helps you make those coin-flip decisions on popular players A different view on the ‘same’ information Occasional game theory The 10 facts are the highest concentration of info on the market! I use them extensively in my own process & reference them constantly while I build lineups. I always look for names that appear several times that I didn't expect to see and look for big names that don't make the list at all FREEWhat the chalk bomb is not: A picks article Always right. This is high risk, high reward every.single.week. The chalk bomb will invariably have good weeks All encompassing...I'm just trying to hit on the guys that I think are the most important to make a decision on each week Cost money....I literally just do this because I love golf and love playing DFS Perfect English/sentence structure/grammar, I barley passed all my English/Lit classes in college, it is admittedly not a strength of mine but believe it or not, the Chalk Bomb generally takes up most of my Wednesdays every week. I don't put one sentence in this email that isn't backed by some statistic/fact, and that is where my focus lies....delivering extremely well-researched info! If your a grammar nazi, A. get a life B. you'll probably want to subscribe to another email with perfect grammar but shit info

MATCHUP 1

Berger vs. Na

Berger -125 vs. Na -105

Berger kind of feels like the forgotten man right? Two years ago he was one of those up & comers with Spieth/JT & that whole crowd. Berger owns 1 top 10 since 7/2017 on the PGA tour, BUT as you'll see in the 10 facts his name pops up a couple of times which I certainly was not expecting. If you look into his strokes gained data you'll see he's actually gained at least 4.5 strokes on the field in 5 of his last 7 events. Waialae is also a difficult to hit fairways course which plays into Berger's strength (has averaged 1.4 strokes gained OTT his last 10 events). The books are also giving Berger some street cred as he's a slight favorite over Na on a course that suits his game.

MATCHUP 2

Chez vs. Cam Smith

Chez -105 vs. Smith -125

I'm quite surprised Chez isn't going to be the chalk of the week. He's #1 or #2 in HALF of the 10 facts. For the things I look at he has the most elite course history in the field, is a great course fit, & is #1 in the 2 main approach shot buckets. He also doesn't seem to be getting a ton of respect in the betting markets as he's a slight dog to Cam Smith. He's my #1 play this week, & I'm glad to eat the chalk.

MATCHUP 3

Hideki vs. Kuchar

Hideki -140 vs. Kuchar +110

Of all the head to head matchup prices, this one caught my eye the most. If you believe in the power of course history over recent form than this is your matchup. Kuch is a previous winner here and has finished in the top 8 5 of the last 6 times he's played here...pretay pretay pretay good. Hideki, on the other hand, has terrible course history here, perhaps the worst of any course on tour that he consistently plays. His best finish ever is 27th place, & it's not like he's just putted poorly (the norm), on a relative basis he's hit a poor percentage of his GIR's to. BUT he's a -140 favorite over Kuch which is quite high.

"DB's Big Balls Betting Card"

I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes! Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer.Hold on to your dicks boys! This week's weather looks to be unlike anything we've seen at Waialae in recent history with heaps of rain and wind all 4 days between 20-40mph! This means a couple of things when it comes to selecting players...First, I see no real edge to be found in First Round Leader's since the entire day looks to be windy as shiyit. I'd rather not splooge my unit on 1 days' worth of golf in a hurricane. Second, it means that the bermuda rough will be THICC & LONG like my cock! We've already heard from a caddie on the grounds today that the rough was longer than usual since they've had some rain lately and haven't cut it. Finally, this puts even more of a premium on being in the fairway! These fairways are already tight with tons of doglegs. Plus, it's likely we see the "ball in hand" rule take effect if the fairways get soaked. So, to avoid the THICC, wet, sticky rough--to get the benefit of "ball in hand"--and have a chance of hitting these tiny greens...I think accuracy off the tee is of utmost importance this week. I want accurate, ball striker, grinder types that can control their ball flight and make some putts. By the way...if you're looking for my favorite bet of the week that's too short to hold up to the reputation of my article...it'd be Niemann who's odds have now dropped to 30/1 from 35/1 on Monday.

Through 10 Weeks: Spent $500 / Won $1250 / Up 75 unitsOutright WinnerConners (40/1)_$10, Kisner (45/1)_$10, Chez (55/1)_$10, Knox (60/1)_$10, Berger (110/1)_$5,GMAC (125/1)_$5

So, 4 of the 6 guys on my card played Kapalua last week which we see has been critical to success here in the past. All of these guys are known as accurate, pure mother f-in strikers of balls. Kiz, Knox, & GMac are especially known for their ball flight control and ability to play in shit weather. If you listened to the podcast, you heard me salivate all over Conners. Then, Chez & Berger really sold me after reading the 10 Facts and Ben's H2H writeup.

All bets courtesy of MyBookie. Click the photo below for the 50% Deposit Bonus. They've taken care of our listeners for over 2 years now. Come Bet with us!

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week:

He's gained less than 1 stroke against the field in half of his last 8 events (which includes a win)
He's got a negative putting split on bermuda greens
In 2 of his last 3 events, he's hit less than 43% of his fairways
He's lost strokes around the green in 6 of the last 8 events
He's returned negative DFS value in 4 of his last 5 events
He has a negative split on difficult to hit fairway courses
He's a -130 underdog to Im despite being directly below him in price
He only has 25% implied odds to finish in the top 10
He's 1 of only 3 players above $7500 that have never played here before
He has the 2nd lowest driving accuracy % of everyone priced $7300 & up

At 18.7% projected ownership on Fantasy National (2nd highest), Joaquin Niemann, your the Chalk Bomb!

Watch this 3 minute video of Pat reading "Ms. New Booty" lyrics by Bubba Sparxxx

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

I am absolutely downright disrespectful to the disposal in my kitchen sink. I mean I will literally put just about anything down in that thing. I’m talking entire f’in meals and shit. If the government handed out fines on misuse of disposals I’d have the world record and probably have liens and whatever else filed against me. You really can’t put anything past me to throw down there. Except potato skins. I did learn my lesson on those. Maybe this is just my experience (always possible when I’m pontificating), but I’m convinced the most dangerous roadway on earth isn’t rush hour Atlanta, New York, or LA traffic, but the morning car line at an elementary school. Literally all parties involved are at risk of major catastrophe at any time. I’m talking parents, kids, teachers, pretty much everyone is at risk. Now luckily we don’t see that many stories about accidents actually happening, but I’m telling you its mass confusion and you have your head on a swivel and be on high alert at all times. Kids coming out of nowhere, teachers hollering at you because you didn’t come all the way up to imaginary line that is the apparent drop off point, soccer mom texting and trying to put their makeup on at the same time, and of course there’s dudes like me who are usually late racing around the loop like it’s the freakin Daytona 500 just so we can avoid a freakin tardy notice. Absolute chaos. Quick little update on one of my golf New Year’s resolutions of completing an entire round without a double bogey. I played two days ago and had 5 straight doubles on the front nine alone. So things aren’t really going particularly well with that. I’ll keep trying though. Prayers appreciated. That’s all I got folks. Enjoy your Mai Tai’s this week and good luck with your lineups and bets for the Sony Open!

Strokes gained Tee to Green leaders from last years Sony:

1. Chez 2. Kuchar 3. Swafford 4. Mitchell 5. Conners 6. Potter Jr 7. Leishman 8. Bradley 9. Sabb 10. JT

Historical

GIR Leaders at Waialae (min 8 rounds):

1. Chez 2. Stanley 3. Sabb 4. Piercy 5. Armour 6. Simpson 7. Mitchell 8. Grillo 9. Palmer 10. Swafford

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on Bermuda:

1. Burns 2. CH3 3. Poston 4. Simpson 5. Perez 6. Putnam 7. Taylor 8. Gay 9. Stuard 10. McDowell

If I make a custom model w/ difficult to hit fairways, par 70, & bermuda greens your Total Strokes Gained leaders are (min 12 rounds):

1. Chez 2. CH3 3. Berger 4. JT 5. Simpson 6. Kuchar 7. Kirk 8. Henley 9. Piercy 10. Palmer

If I make another custom model w/ JUST strokes gained ball striking on difficult to hit fairways and easy scoring your top 10 are (min 12 rounds):

1. Kuchar 2. Chez 3. JT 4. Hoffman 5. Stanley 6. Palmer 7. List 8. Simpson 9. Knox 10. ZJ

GIR's gained always backtests well, your top 10 the last 12 rounds:

1. Norlander 2. Conners 3. Grillo 4. B. Taylor 5. NeSmith 6. Ancer 7. Matsuyama 8. Stanley 9. Streb 10. Knox

Strokes gained on the par 4's will be the most important at Waialae, so your top 10 in par 4 strokes gained are:

1. Reed 2. JT 3. Simpson 4. Sneds 5. Morikawa 6. Higgs 7. Niemann 8. Poston 9. Matsuyama 10. Harman

The two highest approach shot distribution buckets this week are 150-175 & 175-200, so your top 10 in proximity are :

1. Reavie 2. Henley 3. McDowell 4. JT 5. Grillo 6. Hoge 7. Every 8. Taylor 9. Morikawa 10. Piercy

Top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds:

1. Grillo 2. Stanley 3. Smith 4. Every 5. Higgs 6. Conners 7. Taylor 8. Harrington 9. Neimann 10. Armour

10.

Top 10 'bargains' on DK relative to Fanduel pricing :

1. Palmer 2. Sabb 3. Knox 4. Ortiz 5. Frittelli 6. Poston 7. Munoz 8. Lashley 9. CH3 10. Piercy

Tour Junkies IG Post of the Week

- @Tour_Junkies on IG

Reply

or to participate.