View this email in your browser

Click Below for Free Betting & DraftKings Content

It's not a huge advantage, but it does appear to be advantageous to go out early on Friday morning. The winds will be perhaps the least impactful that we see the entire week, projected right now at only 3 pm in the morning via Windfinder. The afternoon kicks up slightly to 9-12 mph for the Friday late wave. Thursday appears to be equally windy for both groups, but keep in mind that the windy conditions tend to really dry and firm up Bermuda grass greens along the coast which could present slightly tougher conditions for the afternoon wave.As always, final weather thoughts will be discussed TONIGHT in the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pmET and going until...GET IN THERE!

Sungjae Im -138 ($10,300) vs Jordan Spieth +114 ($10,000)

This is an interesting matchup where we see a substantial favorite in the matchup betting market, yet only a $300 increase in price on Draftkings for Sungjae over Jordan Spieth. Data Golf actually has Sungjae as the favorite to win this tournament at 7.5% odds, while Spieth checks in a #7 on their list at 2.9% odds.We have surprisingly seen some money taken on Sungjae at the sharpest market making books ever after opening a -135 favorite. DataGolf has their predictive odds on this matchup with Sungjae -169!This is all important information to consider when making your Draftkings lineups this week. While it looks like you could make some slight savings to build the rest of your roster with Spieth, it seems all the sharp action loves Sungjae to have a better week.

Chris Kirk -123 ($7,400) vs. Nick Hardy +102 ($7,500)

Another intriguing matchup here as the betting lines do not match up with the Draftkings pricing for these 2 players. The betting matchup opened up even, but the biggest books have seen money come in on Chris Kirk as he currently sits at a -123 favorite, despite being cheaper on Draftkings.Kirk has 2 top 10 finishes in the last 5 years at Waialae and seems like a much better course fit at a tournament that requires consistent accuracy OTT. Hardy was pretty open in his interview with DB about the types of courses he is best suited for, and this AINT IT!Fantasy National has both players projected at roughly 5% ownership this week. Kirk could make an interesting pivot at a cheaper price if you believe in following the sportsbook dollars and bookmakers.

Adam Svensson -119 ($7500) vs. Hayden Buckley -102 ($7,600)

A couple of young up and coming players round things out for Matchup #3. Once again, the cheaper priced player in Draftkings is a solid favorite in the betting matchup with we have to consider. The matchup opened Svensson -105 but has since been bet up to -119.If you take a deeper dive into courses sub 7,200 yards in length, historically Svensson gets a major boost and Buckley's numbers have been trending in the opposite direction. Svensson is top 6 in Ballstriking approach on these courses while Buckley ranks 96th and 108th.You have to take into consideration that Svensson is the higher projected ownership. Depending on the contest selection and risk tolerance, this matchup presents another interesting dilemma. Good luck friends.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

We ate a ton of Milton Pouha chalk last week at the Sentry and thankfully we're able to keep it down. The easy pivot was right there in Morikawa and hopefully you made the move which turned out more profitable.

For the CB this week, Fantasy National currently has this player in the top 4 of projected ownership. We typically try to stick with a player within the top 10, but we're taking a ballsy stance inside the top 5 again this week.

Per DataGolf, this player has actually performed well above his expectation at Waialae throughout his career thus far. We know this is a sticky course history tournament, and he's been +1.36 Strokes Gained vs. expectation at the Sony, which blends his predictive skill level with course fit/history.While a bit nerve wracking to step in front of that, a deeper dive would indicate that stat is boosted primarily from a significant bump in SG: Putting at the Sony Open. This player has averaged +3.5 strokes gained putting in 4 career appearances at Waialae! We know how volatile putting can be, and this number is actually concerning to me given that this player averages -1 SG: Putting across his career 141 PGA Tour events. He's not a good putter, so the expectation that he succeeds here based on a good course fit for putting seems like a proper narrative that is worth a fade.The other prevailing narrative this week is to play fairway finders and players that gain strokes OTT on courses that reward guys who "club down" and pound the short grass. This is normally a consistent strength of our player, but he has actually failed to gain more than +1 strokes OTT in his last 5 starts. To put that into perspective, the previous 5 starts before that he averaged +3.1 strokes OTT. Not to say this can't flip back this week, but it could be indicative of something mechanically with the swing that this player is currently working on which is common to start a new season.When pricing dropped for this event, it was clear this player would get plenty of clicks this week. I think he makes a relatively simply pivot point at his projected 19% ownership in a full field event. That's nearly 2.5x where his ownership was last week at the Sentry with only 39 players that resulted in a middling T18 finish across the island.At 19+% (top 4 highest), Corey Conners, you are the CHALK BOMB!

The Ziploc “Snack” bags are the worst idea that Ziploc has ever come up with. Those things suck. First off, most of the time you buy them by accident thinking it’s the sandwich bags and then you get home and realize the awful mistake you have made. They can’t hold shit but maybe 4 chips, and then you spend the better part of a year trying to figure out ways to get rid of those damn things. It’s funny to me that people go to such great lengths to “save” a cat out of a tree. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a cat at the base of a tree that died from gravity. I think responding with LOL is probably one of the biggest common lies people tell these days. There’s no way people are actually laughing out loud that much.The cup usage in my household has reached a point of absolute ridiculousness. Why do these people need to use so many damn cups? Does anyone else have this problem?! I use the same damn Yeti almost every single day and just wash it myself. Ask DB, he knows. Anyway, I'm going to put an end to this reckless cup usage. Alright, that’s all I got for this week. I hope you enjoy the Sony Open at classic and beautiful Waialae Country Club. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!

Forward