The Grand Finale

DB's Big Balls Betting Card & the 10 Key Stats can be found HERE!

Welcome back to a brand new season of the Chalk Bomb email! A quick refresher for how to best use the email we here at TJ headquarters provide every Wednesday. First, while the Chalk Bomb pick is the email namesake, it is FAR from the only thing you should be looking at. In fact, I would tell you it's actually the LAST thing you should take away weekly. I start my process each event with the 10 stats (link above), it's the best-est, most condensed, actionable info I do (PLUS, I've added a new feature for your convenience, a weekly count of how many times a player makes the list! See twitter). This is the cornerstone of my research building up to Wednesday, & I reference it often. Second, I actually spend the MOST time sorting through & writing up the head to heads. This is where I personally find the most value. A lot of times it's these 1v1 tradeoffs that can make your week, especially when a higher owned player is actually a head to head underdog to someone flying under the radar. And finally the Chalk Bomb...I try to find the equilibrium between the highest owned player for the week that I think has the greatest potential to bomb/underperform. Unfortunately, the masses will be correct from time to time, the Chalk Bomb will play great, and that's OK! Over the course of a LONG season, we don't need to be right every week to have an edge. Show me someone that nails it every single event in golf, and I will show you a fucking liar. It's just the nature of golf, but that's what makes it so damn fun. And of course, Pontificate with Pat is a must-read, as it will have you pondering the great mysteries of this life. Like wearing Carhartt gear....what are you really? A student? A hipster? A licensed forklift operator? No one knows!!

(Image from DataGolf) Waialae is always an interesting course fit because according to the data it emphasizes.....nothing! As you can see distance gets knocked down a peg, with everything else being slightly below the 'average PGA course.' Now I can see a lot of confused faces out there...'Ben, how can they ALL have lesser importance than the average course?' Well, the simple answer is: for whatever reason, there's just a ton of randomness in this event. Chalk it up to the weather, wind, 1st (generally weak) full-field event, most bombers skip it, etc etc. The winning scores have ranged from -11 to -27 just in the last 4 years, that's a HUGE difference. This is also one of the few events that I'll actually take putting into account. Historically you've had to gain AT LEAST 6 strokes putting just to have a chance at winning. 

Leh Go!

MATCHUP 1

Henley vs. Palmer

Henley -114 vs Palmer -102

Clear DFS value on our (my) boy Russell Henley as he's $500 cheaper than Palmer yet the -114 H2H favorite. Both guys actually have sneaky good history at the Sony, as Russ is a past winner & Palmer has hit greater than 71% of his greens in reg 6 out of his last 7 tries. It's hard to not give Palmer the edge in recent form as well. He's riding back to back 4th place finishes in which he's gained at least 5.8 strokes ball striking in both. Russ cooled a little at the very end of 2020 after what was one of the most impressive ball-striking runs you'll see. Over the last 50 rounds, he's #1 in the field in ball striking & #1 in strokes gained tee to green. He's as streaky as they come with the putter, but I love the upside. Bermuda is also both of these guys best-putting surfaces. Gun to my head I'm taking Palmer in H2H betting, & Henley in DFS. 

Click the image above to sign up with Monkey Knife Fight!Free $50 when you use Promo Code: Tour Junkies w/ 1st Deposit!

MATCHUP 2

Berger vs. English

Berger -107 vs. English -109

We're starting off 2021 with another pair of guys that team TJ was on for a large part of last year. Once again, clear DFS value as Berger is $800 cheaper than Harry, yet it's basically a pickem in H2H markets. I was really hoping Berger was gonna fly under the radar this week, but no such luck as he's projected for 25%+ ownership. He's probably the 2nd or 3rd best player in the field but he's priced as the 6th best. He hit the ball great last week almost doubling Harry's strokes gained ball striking, but lost strokes around the green & putting even though he's 8th in the field the last 50 rounds with the flat stick. He's 5 for 5 in cuts made at the Sony & has hit AT LEAST 72% of his greens in reg in 4 out of 5 of those years. It's a shame Harry won last week because Waialae might be an even BETTER fit for his game. He's made 6 of his last 7 cuts here (which includes some lean years where he was not making cuts) as well as 3 top 10's. He gained almost 7 strokes putting last week which was his highest mark since May of 2018...so expecting a little mean reversion there. But he's probably the hottest player on tour currently with top 10's in 4 of his last 5 events & will most likely go under-owned this week as most previous winners do. 

MATCHUP 3

Ancer vs. Smith

Ancer -123 vs. Smith +106

DFS value is pretty easy to come by this week as Ancer is $200 cheaper than Cam but a decent H2H favorite. I actually like Cam's H2H price quite a bit & here's why: post U.S. Open he was playing his best golf of the year. He had gained strokes on approach shots in 8 straight events, is always good around the greens, & had figured something out with the flat stick as he went from losing strokes putting in 6 of 8 events to gaining strokes, lots of strokes, in 6 straight now. His irons weren't great last week at the TOC, but he did gain strokes everywhere else, plus he's got good tee to green history at the Sony as he's hit at least 71% (last year was actually his lowest!) of his greens in reg in 4 straight years here. 

Other interesting lines:Reavie -127 vs. Snedeker +109Garcia -118 vs. ZJ +101Harman -134 vs. Munoz +115Matsuyama -124 vs. Niemann +106Knox -140 vs. Kizzire +120Sabbatini -112 vs. Poston -105Na -125 vs. EVR +107Todd -142 vs. Griffin +121

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• He has mediocre course history at best. He's played here the last 3 years with a high finish of 29th

• He's been well below field average in GIR's hit in 2 of his 3 tries here

• Since the Tour Championship (24 measured rounds) he's gained (lost) -0.7 strokes cumulative on approach shots

• Last week at the TOC he lost 5.4 strokes tee to green

• Last week at the TOC he GAINED 6.7 strokes putting, the 3rd highest total of his career

• Bermuda grass is the only surface he loses strokes on

• He's a head to head underdog against several guys cheaper than him

• Of everyone $8k & up, he's 2nd to last in DK points scored over his last 50 rounds

• He's 37th & 35th in the 2 main proximity buckets

• Over his last 24 rounds, he's 51st in the field in ops gained

At 14.5% actual lineups generated % on Fantasy National (9th highest though have seen him WAY higher elsewhere), Abe Ancer, you're the Chalk Bomb!

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

You know what triggers me at grocery stores (besides people that don’t take their carts back to the corral)? People that feel the need to tell the check out person about every item that is on sale, or 2 for 1, or whatever. I mean shit, they put that in the computer. You don’t need to tell them. It’s not like there’s some rogue sticker guy throwing up discount stickers everywhere. People need to be more trusting of grocery store software.

Speaking of grocery stores. Here’s a tip for all you Publix shoppers out there. You don’t HAVE to buy two items on their 2 for 1 specials. You can just buy one item and get half price. Don’t be wasteful. You’re welcome.

I said this on the pontificate portion of the show this week, but it bears repeating for those that missed it, I’m just not a fan of these local business owners like car dealerships or carpet stores putting their kids in their commercials. Just don’t do that. Look, your kids just aren’t that funny and they’re terrible actors. It even makes me NOT want to do business at your establishment. Hire some damn professionals and let the kids go play at the playground or something.

How come we can figure out how to put a man on the moon but we can’t build a trusty household electronic clothes folding machine? I gotta imagine people would pay top dollar for that. Nobody like folding clothes and it doesn’t seem like it would be all that difficult to come up with something. Let’s get to it folks.

Alright, that’s all I got. Good luck this week for the Sony Open and may your screens be green!