Sony Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

This Week's Tour Stop Sony Open at Wai'alae

The REAL #Golf #SNZ Opener

So I'm going to have a slight cop out in the opener here. I'm leaving most of what I wrote last week because our readership should make a pretty big jump with the first full field of the season, plus football winding down, etc and I want to make sure that everyone both understands what the chalk bomb is, and how to best use it. If you haven't already, check out our new weekly content which features Pat's new Fantasy Sommelier writeup which is #GreatFantasic, plus our new season long piece that tries to settle the age old debate of form vs history vs fit:

Team TJ is pumped that golf, DFS golf, and the days getting longer are slowly coming back. We've made a ton of improvements to the chalk bomb over the off season to improve the look and readability that I think everyone will like. With the TOC basically being the equivalent of a practice round for DFS purposes I figured we'd go over what the Chalk Bomb is/is not and how to best use it for a profitable season. When i first agreed to start doing the chalk bomb I made one thing abundantly clear to Pat & David…I had zero interest in doing a ‘picks’ article or some other piece of content that you can find in 20 other places. I wanted to do something different, something unique, and something that helped people make their OWN decisions and empower them to a better process.

As you know golf is the most volatile sport in all of DFS. It’s from that volatility that we can profit if a good process leads us to fade the higher owned guys that are primed to fail. In DFS golf, the devil is in the details, and a LOT of analysis in the industry is fairly surface level, 32,000 feet views. Those are the exact errors that we try and capitalize on. We have a lot of new readers this year so here is quick run down of what to expect every week and how to best use the infomation.What the chalk bomb is:

The chalk bomb section of the email is a balance of the highest owned (projected) golfer that I feel has the highest probability to fail. Sometimes this player is 15% owned, sometimes 50%. I always try to let the data lead me where it wants to take me
When I say ‘fail’ that can mean several things. Take for example Dustin Johnson last year at Riviera. He was over 40% owned across most contest, was the most expensive player in the field, and was the chalk bomb. He finished in 17th place. Now some would say thats far from a bad result, but in reality thats a great result for being the chalk bomb. Anyone that owned DJ that week with a 17th place finish had absolutely no shot at winning any tournament, which is our only focus here.
It's best to visualize the chalk bomb as a sliding scale....the more expensive/higher owned a player is, say 10k+ and 20% owned, the less they have to do to 'fail'...anything outside a top 10-15 finish is successful. The lower the ownership and cheaper the player is, say for example $7500 and only 10% owned...they pretty much need to miss the cut
a tool that helps you make those coin flip decisions on popular players
A different view on the ‘same’ information
Occasional game theory
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What the chalk bomb is not:

A picks article
Always right, hell there was one week where the chalk bomb won the tournament last year
All encompassing...I'm just trying to hit on the guys that I think are the most important to make a decision on each week
Cost money....I literally just do this because I love golf and love playing DFS
Perfect English/sentence structure/grammar, I barley passed all my English/Lit classes in college, it is admittedly not a strength of mine, but believe it or not the Chalk Bomb generally takes up most of my Wednesdays every week. I don't put one single sentence in this email that isn't backed by some statistic/fact, and that is where my focus lies....delivering extremely well researched info! If your a grammar nazi, A. get a life B. you'll probably want to subscribe to another email with perfect grammar but shit info

Leh Go!

MATCHUP 1 Hadwin vs. Reavie

I strongly considered this bet for our new season long piece. Yes, Hadwin & Chez are largely the same player, but here's the case: Chez lead the field last year in strokes gained tee to green, he's #5 in GIR % hit at the Sony over the last 5 years, he's #6 in the field in par 4 scoring, and 3rd in the field in strokes gained tee to green over the last 5 years at the Sony. #Bome

MATCHUP 2

Hideki vs. Kuchar

So Hideki is $800 more expensive than Kuchar this week but he's a decent underdog against Kuchar in head to head markets. I didn't even realize this until I double checked, but Kuch actually has elite course history here. He hasn't played here the last 2 years, but had finished no worse than 13th since 2011 with 4 top 8's! Hideki on the other hand has 4 missed cuts (has he missed that many at any other place?) and for a course that requires you to have a hot putter to content, well, not exactly his strong suite.

MATCHUP 3

DeChambeau vs. Woodland

If you read our new article on Tourjunkies.com, then you know that Gary Woodland was both the #1 course history guy, and the #1 recent form guy. Throw in the fact that Bryson lost strokes tee to green last week and rode a hot putter to salvage his 7th place finish and you have a perfect recipe for a 'lesser' player to be the head to head favorite. Woodland just so happens to lead the field in GIR's hit at Waialae the last 5 years.

MATCHUP 4

Leishman vs. Champ

Marc Leishman is only $600 more than Champ this week, but he's a huge head to head favorite, in fact it's the 3rd most lopsided matchup on the board this week. Marc is #2 in the course history model, #2 in the recent form model, and if it wasn't for a poor putting week at the CJ Cup, he would have finished top 10 in 4 straight events. Champ will have his courses this year to load the boat on, this just isn't one of them.

MATCHUP 5

Harman vs. Poulter

I just wanted to highlight this line because I was fairly high on Harman heading into the week, and I'm still not sure why Poulter is such a heavy favorite. Very clear DFS value for Poulter considering he's cheaper and a big favorite, but I think as far as pure betting he's a great value. Harman has finished 4th, 20th, 13th, 13th the last 4 years here, Poulter has oddly never played here. Harman was in shit form at the end of the season, but this course is a perfect fit for him, and it honestly wouldn't surprise me to see him win here.

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Stats about our boy this week:

He played in the TOC last week, & on a course that fit him he lost strokes tee to green
It's no secret that you have to putt lights out at the Sony to have a chance to win, well this guy over the last calendar year has averaged 30 putts per round. (the tour average is 29.03, so almost a full stroke over the tour average)
His greatest strength is his off the tee game, but 2 of the last 3 winners of the Sony lost strokes off the tee
Despite a good off the tee game & having played on easier courses the last year, he's only 23rd in the field in par 4 scoring
He's lost strokes around the green in 6 straight events
These are his strokes gained approach for his last 10 events: (-0.3), 0.8, (-2.6), 2.6, (-0.2), (-1.8), (-2.8), (-0.4), (-0.6), (-0.4). No winner or 2nd place finisher for the Sony Open has gained less than 5 strokes on approach shots the last 4 years
He's a huge head to head underdog against players in the same price range

Our friends over at FanShareSports.com have our guy projected at 13.2% this week....Cameron Champ, you're the Chalk Bomb!

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Strokes gained tee to green leaders from last years Sony:

1. Chez 2. Kelly 3. Piercy 4. Hoge 5. Hahn 6. Blaum 7. Na 8. Kirk 9. Spieth 10. Knox

Two of the last three years:

the winner of the Sony Open has lost strokes off the tee, however in my own backtesting total driving was a top 5 indicator for success (notice Kizzire didn't even finish 10 top in the first fact, just putted his ass off)

3. I made a different custom model that focuses on ONLY year long stats since recent form doesn't really exist yet:

1.JT 2. Woodland 3. Champ 4. Bryson 5. Leishman 6. Stricker 7. Spieth 8. Casey 9. Ortiz 10. Cam Smith

Strokes gained putting leaders on Bermuda the last 50 rounds:

1. Kiz! 2. Donald 3. Malnati 4. Thompson 5. Stricker 6. Gay 7. Blixt 8. Wagner 9. Whee Kim 10. Reed

Your top 10 in GIR's hit at Waialae:

*small sample sizes apply 1. Woodland 2. Ryder 3. Casey 4. Chez 5. Stefani 6. Armour 7. Sabbatini 8. Stanley 9. Donald 10. Piercy

6. Since this is a par 70 w/ only 2 par 5's, your top 10 in par 4 scoring are:

1.JT 2. Spieth 3. ZJ 4. Kuch 5. Mitchell 6. Chez 7. Armour 8. Leishman 9. Na 10. Hideki

Bottom 10 in strokes gained putting on Bermuda the last 50 rounds (relevant guys only):

1. Stanley 2. Piercy 3. Knox 4. Keegan 5. Bubba 6. Kelly 7. Ryder 8. Hoge 9. Scott 10. Si Woo

According to DataGolf,

putting and strokes gained off the tee are more important at the Sony Open compared to the average PGA tour event

Just to drive home how big putting is this week:

Only 4 guys in the last 4 YEARS have finished in the top 10 without gaining AT LEAST 2 full strokes putting on the field (the winner has gained AT LEAST 5.6 strokes on the field putting every year since 2010)

10.

10 guys that are in the top 15 strokes gained tee to green at Waialae for their careers but rank outside the top 60 in strokes gained putting at the course (in order of strokes gained tee to green):

1. Kirk 2. Piercy 3. Chez 4. Spieth 5. Knox 6. Sabbatini 7. Hahn 8. Snedeker 9. Scott 10. Stanley

WIN A

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Step 1 - Click Here to download the Avatar of your choice.

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Step 4 - Screenshot your win and share with the Tour Junkies! #Bome

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PAT'S PARTING WORDS

"If you're struggling between two players, just flip a coin, if you're disappointed with the outcoe, then just go with the guy your brain wanted anyway"

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