Back to Back Vegas Weeks

DB's Big Balls Betting Card & the 10 Key Stats can be found HERE!

Our field for this week ended up being surprisingly strong with a lot of guys here for the double of TPC Summerlin in Vegas backed up by the CJ Cup at Shadow Creek which should be really fun to watch. With a built-in week off for almost everyone in the Masters field the week of Oct 29-Nov 1 (Bermuda Championship), I would expect some historically strong fields the next 4 events with everyone trying to dial in their games. 

The game theory for this week is fairly similar to last week and was the only thing that allowed me to eek out a small profit. Almost all the chalk is going to be concentrated in the top 7 guys. As I sit here Wednesday afternoon, 6 of the top 7 priced guys are projected to be 19%+ owned. We'll try & break those guys down in the head to head section, but just like last week, I would recommend creating a portion of your lineups with either zero or just 1 of those guys. 

Quick hitter stats on the course:

Cut Line: Historically between 2-4 under

Hole Composition: Only thing that really stands out is 9 par 4's between 400-500 yards

Approach Shot Distribution: most popular distance is 200+ yards, followed by 125-150, & 150-175 (both are very close)

Driving accuracy %: 59 compared to 62.2 tour average

Scrambling %: 54.2 compared to 57.7 tour average

Average Driving Distance: 295.22 vs. 281.8 tour average

Avg GIR prox to hole: 31 vs 28.6 tour average

(Imagine from DataGolf) So we get a pretty interesting course fit according to DataGolf. On a RELATIVE basis, both putting and around the green play are amplified, which is interesting considering that the average driving distance here is almost 14 yards further than an average tour stop. But this does match up with the above data that the field gets up & down less often here, & the average proximity to the hole is also greater (means more feet of putting). The bombers again have a pretty distinct advantage at TPC Summerlin, and I think it actually makes sense that around the green play can be a separator here since the average GIR% is so high.  

Leh Go!

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MATCHUP 1

Scheffler vs. Wolff

Scheffler -110 vs. Wolff -106

Like we mentioned in the opening, almost all the chalk is in the top 7 guys, starting with Wolff & Scottie. Both have only played TPC Summerlin once, Wolff hit 79% of his GIR's while Scottie hit just 64%, so a slight advantage to Wolff in history (small sample though). For Wolff, something seemed to click for him starting at the Rocket Mortgage. He was playing pretty #badgolf before the restart, and the 1st 3 events after the restart with his high water mark being a 21st at the Farmers. The two biggest issues during that time were his irons, and around the green game, which he was pretty much losing strokes, or breaking even at best in both areas every event. From the Rocket Mortgage forward, he's gained strokes on approach shots in 7 of 9 events and has gained strokes around the green in 5 of his last 9 (& 3 straight). He's also doubled his strokes gained off the tee from his career average in the last 5 events. Before last week, Scottie was arguable one of the hottest golfers on tour w/ 3 top 5 finishes in his last 4 events. He had gained at LEAST 5.7 strokes tee to green in every event since the Memorial. Last week, he was still his usual self off the tee, gained strokes around the green (which he's consistently better at than Wolff), and gained strokes putting. However, he lost 3.4 strokes on approach shots which was actually the 3rd worst result of his entire PGA career so far. So the million-dollar question is does Scottie's irons bounce back? The sportsbooks seem to be leaning yes as he's a slight H2H favorite over Wolff. 

MATCHUP 2

DeChambeau vs. Simpson

DeChambeau -120 vs. Simpson +103

One of the key decisions for the week is to play or fade Bryson. No matter how you cut it, his US Open performance was an all-time great. Everyone talks about his off the tee game, but if you took away all 5.3 strokes he gained off the tee that week, guess what? He still wins! That's how good he played! The only thing that had really been holding Bryson back, if you can call 9 top 10 finishes this year 'being held back' was his sloppy iron play. In the previous 7 events before the US Open, Bryson had actually lost strokes on approach in 6 of those. Whatever he changed in between the Tour Championship and the US Open worked though, as he gained 7.5 strokes on approach shots (lead the field), and was the 2nd best SG: APP numbers in his entire career! To boot Bryson has elite course history at TPC Summerlin. The last 3 years he's hit 83%, 83%, & 85% of his GIR's...& this is pre-large golfer status. I do think it's interesting that Webb only finds himself as a +103 underdog. While his GIR%'s are not as high as Bryson, this course should be a great fit for him given his elite around the green game and putting. I do think its still fair to say that Webb has a higher floor, & Bryson a higher ceiling. 

MATCHUP 3

Hideki vs. Morikawa

Hideki -120 vs. Morikawa +103

Both Hideki & Morikawa are now projected to be owned in the 19-20% area after the Tony Finau covid news. While the head to head price is fairly close, I actually like Hideki quite a bit over Morikawa this week. Over Collin's last 4 events, he's gained a TOTAL of 1.9 strokes tee to green while also losing strokes putting in 2 of those. For him, his iron play hasn't been great, and for his young career, he's actually averaged exactly breakeven around the greens and is a slight net loser putting. The reasons why I like Hideki more this week is that yes, he's not a good putter, though be's better on bent, #2 Hideki is elite around the greens, & #3, his ball-striking numbers have been way better recently than Morikawa. 

Other interesting lines:Niemann -134 vs. ZJ +115Davis -110 vs. Na -106Hadwin -123 vs. Cink +105Palmer -136 vs. Ventura +116Fowler -135 vs. Casey +116Streelman -110 vs. Steele -106

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• Over his last 6 events, his highest finish is 12th

• Over his last 6 events, his HIGHEST strokes gained T2G total is: 3

• Over his last 4 events, his cumulative strokes gained approach total is: -2.3

• Over his last 50 rounds, he doesn't rank in the top 20 for any of the 4 major strokes gained categories

• In the two main approach shot buckets, he ranks 41st in the field in proximity

• Over his last 12 rounds he's 134th! in the field in opps gained

• Over his last 12 rounds he's 102nd in the field in birdie or better gained

• Over his last 12 rounds he's 100th in the field in fairways gained

• He's a head to head underdog in both of his betting matchups

At 14.6% calculated Ownership (6th highest), Patrick Cantlay, you're the Chalk Bomb! 

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

If you could spend one day of your entire life living the life of an animal, which animal would it be? For me it would simply be a dog. My dog doesn’t have a worry in the world and just lays around all day doing nothing. He also gets treats just for going to the bathroom outside or for sitting down. That seems like a good day to me and quite relaxing. My choice 1B would be a bald eagle. Because they are bad ass and can fly.

As kids growing up in school, why were we forced to use #2 pencils on standardized test answer sheets? I mean, what if I wanted to use a #4 pencil? Would the machine that scores the test blow up or something? And how come we just skipped over #1 and went directly to #2? On the flip side are there actually pencils that aren’t #2? Bunch of BS if you ask me.

Speaking of school. What mean English teacher put an “s” in the word “lisp”?

If an orange is an orange, why can’t a lime just be called a green, and lemon be called a yellow?

That’s all I got folks! Enjoy the Shriners Hospitals Open this week in Vegas. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!