Shriners HP 2023

HP 🍑 for The Shriners Childrens Open

October 10, 2023

If golf research were sexual...you'd be rounding 2nd base after this.

Here are a few key things to know that may not have been covered on the podcast enough. Keep these in mind when narrowing down your bets and/or player pool.One week after a wild 5-way playoff in Mississippi, the boys on Tour are heading to Sin City. The Shriners is once again being staged at TPC Summerlin located in Las Vegas, NV. The defining element to this tournament over the last 5 years has been the scoring, with -23 under par being the average winning score over that timespan. We expect a low one again this year, but between solid course history predictability and a deep understanding of the skill-sets that often succeed, this should present a week where you can gain a leg up on the field by putting in the research work.For a complete, deep dive into the Country Club of Jackson, check out The Rundown here.Here are some cliffnotes and things to keep in mind about the course this week: 

  • 18 BRAND NEW GREENS! All greens have been resurfaced and reshaped following the Shriners last year. More slope has been added and we expect them be firmer than years past as they continue to settle into place.

  • Forgiving fairways, averaging 33 yards wide at the 300 mark. That said, you cannot miss them or risk ending up in rocks, cacti, or a bush like Cantlay did last year.

  • This has historically been one of the more difficult courses to get up and down around the greens. I would definitely factor this into models for DFS or positional props, but ultimately if you are looking for the outright winner, it's very unlikely they miss a lot of greens on the week.

  • You have to come with a hot putter, especially inside 20 feet in order to make the prerequisite amount of birdies this tournament requires.

  • Over the last 5 years, over 40% of all approach shots come from inside of 150 yards.

  • Due to the short length and elevation, players often club down to 3 wood or long iron OTT and still will end up with a wedge shot in on many holes.

  • In 2023, players hit GIR 73.4% of the time which is up 9.3% from the average PGA Tour Event, something to keep in mind if you are playing the props markets this week.

  • Last year had 6 players achieve -20 or better and saw regular rounds of 65 or better. You can go very low, pay extra attention to Birdie or Better rates, particularly those filtered with easy scoring conditions.

  • DataGolf Optimal DK Lineup: Si Woo, Spaun, Putnam, Hossler, B. Griffin, N. Taylor

Here is the radar plot from DataGolf :

Here is the Approach Shot distribution from DG:

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1. Birdies or Better Gained on the field in easy scoring conditions over the last 36 rounds  : 1. Simpson  2. EVR  3. Hadley  4. Davis  5. Montgomery  6.. Dahmen  7. Palmer  8. Tom Kim  9. Smalley  10. Si Woo2. Top 10 in Opportunities Gained on courses under 7200 yards : 1. Smalley  2. Grillo  3. Poston  4. Griffin  5. Reavie  6. Roy  7. EVR  8. Tom Kim  9. Hoffman  10. Palmer3. Top 10 in Strokes Gained Total Per Event at TPC Summerlin :  1. List  2. Simpson  3. Hadley  4. Laird  5. Nesmith  6. Hadwin  7. Montgomery  8. Moore  9. Ryder  10. Wallace4. Best Putters on Bent Grass over last 36 rounds:  1. Lower  2. Bez  3. Cole  4. Poston  5. Hossler  6. Herbert  7. Suh  8. Noren  9. Rodgers  10. Cook5. Top 10 in the field in proximity gained inside 150 yards : 1. Hoffman  2. Spaun  3. Ghim  4. Yuan  5. Dufner  6. Griffin  7. Redman  8. Suh  9. Griffin  10. Armour6. Top 10 in Good Drives Gained on courses with easy fairways to hit: 1. Hadwin  2. Nesmith  3. Knox  4. Simpson  5. Taylor  6. Redman  7. Smalley  8. Buckley  9. Armour  10. Moore7. Data Golf Top 10 in DFS Value based on a function of projected points and salary: 1. Hossler  2. Taylor  3. Putnam  4. Griffin  5. Spain  6. Si Woo  7. Rodgers  8. Schenk  9. Svensson  10. Aberg8. Top 10 in Data Golf Positive Course History vs. Expectation: 1. Nesmith  2. Schenk  3. Hadwin  4. Shelton  5. Laird  6. Spaun  7. Hossler  8. Hadley  9. Putnam  10. Cook9. Leaders in Strokes Gained Ballstriking on courses with easy scoring conditions:  1. Smalley  2. Si Woo  3. Svensson  4. Moore  5. Redman  6. Griffin  7. Simpson  8. Dahmen  9. Palmer  10. EVR10. Top 10 in strokes gained ARG in last 36 rounds played 1. Piercy  2. Schwab  3. Poston  4. Si Woo  5. Montgomery  6. Putnam  7. Cole  8. Davis  9. Thompson  10. Laird

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