Shriners Hospital Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

Shriners Hospital Open

Welcome back to America boys & maybe the one or two girls that read this article! We rebounded nicely as X was the first person we discussed last week in the match ups, as well as highlighting Finau & Tommy Boy. I re-learned yet another lesson this past week though (that I've learned countless times, I run so bad when I get in contention), don't count your chicken's before they hatch! I had 100% Finau & was winning all the monies last week on Saturday night only to wake up Sunday & be winning a whole lot less, like 2000% less. But such is the beauty & the curse of DFS golf, and the sweat is what truly makes it fun. 

Head to Head Matchups & Information

Comparing H2H matchups is absolutely critical when trying to understand value between players. Essentially, we look at the H2H matchups posted on MyBookie to see where the books disagree with the DFS pricing in order to find value. Most of the time there are clear differences of opinion that we can take advantage of when it comes to pricing and value. It usually ends up being a great clue as to where the sharp money is landing & what the books are expecting. Let's dig in!

Well, hello there. Mr. Patrick 'David's Love Child' Cantlay is the head to head favorite over Spieth! So this line is extremely interesting to me on several levels. 1. This is the first time that Cantlay is the H2H fav over Spieth EVER 2. Spieth is $1100 more expensive than Cantlay 3. Cantlay is not only the defending champ, but played really well last week in China 4. I don't know about yall, but I though the last time we saw Spieth at the Ryder Cup (outside of his singles match) he played really well. I'm going to preemptively declare the 2019 PGA season, 'The season of Spieth' and go on record & say he wins 3 times with one of those being either the Masters or the British. All of his underlying numbers were pretty solid sans the putter, and he FINALLY started to turn that around in late summer. 

Aaron Wise is another guy who's play really flew under the radar at the end of the 2018 season. In 3 of his last 5 events he gained at least 3 strokes tee to green against the field, and also in 3 of 5 he gained at least 2.7 strokes putting. He just has one of those games where he's not truly elite in an one thing, but he does everything so well that it doesn't take much for him to have a great week. Mr. Woodland on the other hand is the polar opposite....he's almost always in the top 5 of any field for his ball striking (OTT+APP), and almost always in the bottom 10 for his play around the greens, which BTW, this week is no different. If we made a bell curve for his expected outcomes, he would have one of the most unusual looking curves on tour. He in theory has both a high floor and a high ceiling, but for as high as his floor is, he so very rarely touches his true potential (only 3 top 10's when he was 3rd on tour in ball striking). Our resident Pat fill-in, Paul Apyan, boldly predicted that Chesson Hadley would out play Cameron Champ this week.  While the books have Champ as the heavy favorite, I actually agree with him for several reasons. Anyone coming off their first PGA win ever (or in a long time) generally mails it in the following week. Maybe Champ is different, but if I just won my first start on the PGA tour as a 23 year old, well, I would need serious adult supervision for the next week, especially considering that this tournament is in Vegas. Not to mention Hadley has played well here with a 4th & 5th on his resume and never really putted that great. 

Ole Scotty P is catching quite the buzz with the local narrative this week, but this is just your friendly reminder that he's a pick em against a guy that just graduated from the Web.com tour (and his name isn't Cameron Champ). I just thought this line was interesting because Cook has vastly outplayed Henley the last calendar year yet he's an underdog in the head to head matchup.  

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THE Chalk Bomb

Our boy Cam Smith made it nice & easy on us last week, firing a blazing 10 over par score for the week. This week is yet again super straight forward:-the Shriners Hospital is the highest price-tag he's had in the last calendar year!-he's projected to DOUBLE his next highest ownership percentage-we have 126 players in the field this week, over the last 50 rounds, this guys's strokes gained putting rank: 126th...ya, dead fucking last-Over the last calendar year he's lost strokes putting in 18 of 21 events....85% of the time he loses strokes every time!-people will tout his 'great' course history, but over the last 3 years his HIGHEST finish is.....24th-he's generally known for his approach game, but at his last 7 events, he's LOST strokes approach in 5 of those-his last 16 events, he's missed the cut/WD'ed/or been DQ'ed 8 times, so 50% of the time he doesn't play on the weekend everytime-in the same 16 events, until the CJ Cup, his best finish was 27th :(-he's a head to head pick em' against a recent Web.com gradOur friends over at Fansharesports.com have this guy projected at 25.6% owned, I think that's a little high but I wouldn't be surprised to see him get close to 20%. Scott Piercy, your the Chalk Bomb!

10 Scary Facts Like a DB/Pat Face Swap

1.  This is basically a fact, but I would down grade everyone that played in the HSBC at least 1 full stroke of performance due to circadian rhythm reasons. It's a monster 15 HOUR time difference that your body has to adjust to really quickly from China to Vegas, and Vegas isn't exactly the type of city where you catch up on your sleep.2. Keeping my model super simple this week, the top 10 is: 1. Rickie 2. Webb 3. Finau 4. Spieth 5. Cantlay 6. Moore 7. Woodland 8. Kuchar 9. Cook 10. Streelman3. Top 10 in my course history model: 1. Moore 2. Cejka 3. Webb 4. Finau 5. Wise 6. Hossler 7. Cantlay 8. English 9. Blaum 10. Henley4. Last years strokes gained tee to green leaders at the Shriners: 1. Finau 2. Chappell 3. Armour 4. Cejka 5. DeChambeau 6. Spaun 7. Cantlay 8. Streelman 9. Harkins 10. Poston5. Last year's strokes gained putting leaders at the Shriners: 1. W. Kim 2. Mullinax 3. McDowell 4. Kraft 5. Kizzire 6. Cook 7. Hadley 8. Power 9. Wise 10. McGirt6. According to DataGolf, strokes gained off the tee are slightly less valuable this week, while strokes gained putting and around the green are slightly more valuable7.  Top 10 total strokes gained leaders the last 12 rounds: 1. Finau 2. Woodland 3. Champ 4. Fowler 5. Rodgers 6. Castro 7. DeChambeau 8. Schenk 9. Glover 10. Cantlay8. Top 10 bentgrass putters the last 50 rounds: 1. Hossler 2. W Kim 3. Fowler 4. Rodgers 5. Webb 6. Malnati 7. McDowell 8. Bryan 9. Tway 10. English9. Your bottom 10 bentgrass putters the last 50 rounds: 1. Palmer 2. Steele 3. Spaun 4. Piercy 5. Dufner 6. Connors 7. Stadler 8. Trahan 9. Castro 10. Dahmen10. Your top 10 strokes gained approach the last 50 rounds on bentgrass courses: 1. Woodland 2. Na 3. Kirk 4. Spieth 5. Niemann 6. Piercy 7. Kokrak 8. HV3 9. Duncan 10. Castro

Win a FREE M4 Driver!

The Problem: Not enough Tour Junkies Avatars on the DFS StreetsThe Solution: DB & Pat cough up $$$ for a Brand New, Custom M4 Driver from TaylorMade How do I win the Driver? Step 1 - Click Here to download the Avatar of your choice.Step 2 - Change your DraftKings AvatarStep 3 - Win either the "Tee to Green" ($6), "Albatross" ($12), or "Club Twirl" ($44) with the TJ Avatar.Step 4 - Screenshot your win and share with the Tour Junkies! #Bome*If you finish Top 5 in the same DK contests, share it and we'll send you a TJ Hat from the Shop.