This Week's Tour Stop Shriners Open 2019 

"DB's Big Balls Betting Card"

I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes! Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer.It was another fun sweat last week as Frittelli was in contention until a Sunday collapse, but other than that...not much to write home about. Let's get to it!

Through 2 Weeks: Spent $150 / Won $750 / Up 60 units

First Round LeaderVegas (90/1)_$5, Varner III (80/1)_$5, Bradley (66/1)_$5, Munoz (66/1)_$5

I especially like betting the triple digit FRL guys since you end up chopping the winnings with ties. I had a few 100/1 guys tee'd up here, but when I considered the value, it was tough to pull the trigger this week. Once again, I like the morning guys this week as the wind will be a little less of a factor. It appears to be a windy afternoon on Thursday with gusts up to 15mph in Vegas. You'll see Vegas and HV3 in both betting categories here. I'm a little partial to betting both since I hit both of them as FRL's last season at over 100/1. These guys are consistently under valued by Vegas, and both have the ability to go very low. Vegas shook the rust off last week, and checks all of the ball striking boxes. Varner has had a very strong start to this season and finished 15th here last season. Keegan is gonna Keegan...meaning he'll go nuclear low on Thursday and then shit down his leg on Friday to miss the cut. May as well get in the waters now with a favorable tee time, a good finish at The Greenbrier to kickoff the new season and a T7 finish at this event last season. Munoz is playing out of his mind right now, gaining tons of strokes tee to green, and only 2 weeks removed from his first PGA Tour victory. 

Outright WinnerVegas (125/1)_$5, Varner III (90/1)_$5, Poston (66/1)_$5, Wise (60/1)_$7.50,Scheffler (45/1)_$7.50

Poston's continuing the tremendous play into the Fall after notching his 1st victory towards the end of last season with a T11 and T16 his last 2 events. He's longer off the tee than you think, and the short game will always keep him in it if he's hitting greens. Really really like Wise and Scheffler here as both are playing very well, both hit the shit out of the golf ball, and both are winners. Scottie hasn't won yet on the PGA Tour, but he's won at every other level. Wise loves this track as he's gained over 18 strokes total in just 3 attempts. It was tough to narrow down the exposure this week, so I spread out the units to give me a better shot at hitting. Good Luck!

All bets courtesy of MyBookie. Click the photo below for the 100% Deposit Bonus They've taken care of our listeners for over 2 years now. Come Bet with us!

 "Pop the Cork & Let it Breathe" Didn't like em Monday, but like em now

Adam Scott - $10,000 – I was on Adam last week and despite not mentioning him on the pod I am still high on him again for the Shriners. Scott has been playing some stellar golf with 3 straight top 10’s in the Playoffs and a T17 last week in Napa. He’s also certainly checking all the boxes ranking high in the field in Ball Striking (10th), Strokes Gained Approach (3rd), and Par 4 scoring (28th). Another thing to note on Scott is that he played his college golf at UNLV which more than likely means absolutely nothing, but there is at least a familiarity with the area. I think ownership will be around 15-20% which isn’t necessarily a sneaky play, but Adam should be solid in both cash and GPP lineups. 

Keegan Bradley - $7,500 – I can’t believe I’m letting myself fall into this trap late in the week, but here I am, doing it again, and throwing Keegan into some lineups. He played fairly well the last time we saw him at the Greenbrier with a T24 finish and I think TPC Sumerlin is another great track for him to contend. Keegan ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained off the Tee and 30th in Proximity which I think will be important when it comes to scoring this week. Keegs hasn’t played in Vegas since 2017, but he finished tied for 7th that year so he’s obviously shown he can play this course well. I would expect low ownership also (currently projected around 5%) and is a solid tournament play on DraftKings.  

Mark Hubbard - $6,400 – I can’t remember if we mentioned this guy on the podcast or not but in case I did, I still like him as I write this (late afternoon Wednesday).  Hubbs has had two solid starts in the 3 events he’s played since making his way back on tour after a stint on the KF Tour last season. He was T13 last week at the Safeway after a missed cut at the Sanderson and also finished Top 10 the week before at the Greenbrier. Mark also has a little history here with two missed cuts, but a solid T35 back in 2016 and is also checking boxes in Strokes Gained Approach, Par 4 scoring, and is ranked in the top 15 in the field in Strokes Gained Putting on bentgrass greens. Despite the MC’s he’s had here, I still think with the form and everything else he is a super cheap and low owned guy you can plug in a tournament lineup.

 "Pontificate with Pat" Random thoughts from Pat

I wonder what the ratio of people who group the apps on their phone by category vs. leave them all separate is? I’ll let you guys guess which option I prefer…

I like even numbers and anything with a numbered setting on it has to be in even numbers. Air Conditioning in my house, volume on the TV/Car Radio, setting the cook timer on the microwave. I mean pretty much on anything I do, as long as I can control the number, it’s going to be even. 

Did everyone know AOL.com still exists? Well it does, I just checked. 

That’s all I got this week folks. Good luck and always remember, what happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas. Bome.

1. 

Strokes gained tee to green leaders from last years Shriners:

1. DeChambeau 2. Cantlay 3. Ryder 4. Niemann 5. Streb 6. Im 7. Vegas 8. Spaun 9. Piercy 10. Woodland

2. 

Historical

GIR Leaders at Summerlin (min 8 rounds): 

1. Lee 2. Cantlay 3. DeChambeau 4. Furyk 5. ZJ 6. Knox 7. Bradley 8. Dahmen 9. Streelman 10. DeLaet

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on Bent:

 1.Snedeker 2. Hossler 3. McCarthy 4. Rodgers 5. Todd 6. Na 7. Clark 8. Simpson 9. Hadwin 10. Armour (11. Cantlay)

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ course lengths of 7200-7400, bent greens, and easy courses...your top 10 in total strokes gained are (min 10 rounds):

1. Niemann 2. Finau 3. ZJ 4. Cantlay 5. Woodland 6. Snedeker 7. Ben An 8. Dahmen 9. Hahn 10. Bradley

5.

If I make another custom model w/ JUST strokes gained ball striking on easy courses that are 7200-7400 yards your top 10 are:

1. Ben An 2. Woodland 3. Watson 4. Matsuyama 5. Niemann 6. Scott 7. Lee 8. HV3 9. Finau 10. Ryder

6.

 GIR's gained always backtests well, your top 10 the last 12 rounds:

1. Grillo 2. Finau 3. Scheffler 4. Furyk 5. Hoag 6. Kokrak 7. Hadwin 8. Redman 9. Munoz 10. Percy

7.

Strokes gained on the par 4's will be the most important at Summerlin, so your top 10 in par 5 strokes gained are:

1. Koepka 2. Snedeker 3. Simpson 4. Scott 5. Niemann 6. Harman 7. Reavie 8. Cantlay 9. Ben An 10. Sabbatini

8.

The two highest approach shot distribution buckets this week are 125-150 and 200+, so your top 10 in proximity are :

1. Dahmen 2. Scott 3. DeLaet 4. Henley 5. Bradley 6. Harman 7. Norlander 8. Stuard 9. Hadwin 10. CT Pan

9. 

Top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds:

1. Grillo 2. ZJ 3. Reavie 4. Vegas 5. Sabbatini 6. Burgoon 7. Brehm 8. Champ 9. Scott 10. Smith

10.

Top 10 'bargains' on DK relative to Fanduel pricing :

 1. Ancer 2. Wise 3. Na 4. Watson 5. McCarthy 6. Piercy 7. Bradley 8. Putnam 9. Smith 10. Munoz

Tour Junkies IG Post of the Week 

- @Tour_Junkies on IG