Shriners CB 23

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South wind comes into play Thursday with potential for 20 mph gusts for those off early in AM wave. Friday appears to be much more consistent and mild at this point. Possible PM/AM wave advantage.For final thoughts on waves, weather, and more...make sure to join the LIVE chat tonight starting around 9 PM ET in the NUT HUT.

Tom Hoge -125 ($8,700) vs. Lucas Herbert +105 ($9,000)

We are highlighting Hoge and Herbie in matchup one as the books have seen significant sharp action come in on Hoge on the last 24 hours. Hoge has gone from an underdog at +106 to now flipping the odds to favorite status at -125.Hoge comes in with solid course history and on the heels on a top 15 last week. He's started to really regain the approach prowess that he had when playing his best last season. On the other hand, Herbert continues to rely mostly on his putter for his gains but did manage top 30 finishes in his first 2 starts of the Fall Swing.In regards to ownership projections, the Nut Hut research center aggregate ownership calls for Hoge around 18% owned while Lucas Herbert is sub 5%.

Davis Thompson -110 ($7,800) vs. Adam Svensson -110 ($8,200)

These two players are now locked in a dead heat for matchup betting, but it certainly didn't start that way when the odds were released. Svensson opened this matchup as a -132 favorite before money came in on young Davis.There are high expectations for Davis to make a leap forward this Fall, coming off a 16th and 30th place finish in the first two events. He finished 12th in this tournament last year and seemed to play some of his best golf last season in the desert.Svensson is playing very solid as well, gaining strokes across the board over his last 36 rounds played and finished 16th at the Sanderson Farms. In terms of DFS ownership, it looks like both players will be around 13% owned this week.

Martin Laird -160 ($7100) vs. Daffue +133 ($7000)

We're taking a look at this matchup because it features two evenly priced players in DFS and yet one is a massive favorite in the head to head markets. You cannot go wrong with the Desert Fox Marty Laird in Vegas...right?This one opened up much closer, before sharp action came in and forced Laird from a -125 favorite all the way up to the current asking price of -160. He of course won this tournament is 2021 but also backed that up with an 11th place finish the following season.You should be able to get MJ Daffue around 2-3% ownership if you want to go that route, but with Marty only $100 more and projeted around 5-6%, you may just want to roll with the sharp bettors and take the guy they clearly see as a big favorite.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. The Chalk Bomb piece has been red hot this Fall Swing thus far as we selected Akshay in Napa (MC) and Sammy Ryder last week (51st). Both players we're popular selections during the week and we we're able to identify some reasoning to propose fading the popular chalk which worked out in our favor. That said, this is a "what have you done for my lately" type of a piece and we are back analyzing this week's Shriners Open to find the perfect Chalk Bomb candidate to avoid at all costs!Let's start here. The Fall Swing on the PGA Tour is just strange. They essentially took what is a normal offseason in any other sport and inserted a few events in the middle it. What really makes it difficult to quantify from a handicapping perspective is form. There are players we haven't seen in 2 months playing this week. There are other guys who we've seen in the Ryder cup, compete last week, or at the Fortinet prior. I'm naturally inclined to be skeptical of players showing up mid offseason to play here without the tournament reps in hand over the past few weeks. There could 100% be positives in terms or swing change progression, rest, etc., but I feel like to more probable outcome is rust in these situations more often than not.As David pointed out in early in the week, this place will serve players up an abundance of wedge shots in the desert as the course plays at elevation and is often setup to be less than 7200 yards. The average winning score has been -23 under par so the importance of being consistently proficient with your wedges to create ample birdie opportunities is paramount for success. Over the last 5 years, 44% of all approach shots have come from within 150 yards.The Chalk Bomb candidate that I have honed in on this week ranks 67th in the field this week on approach shots from 50-150 yards. When you look at data from all 20 players in the field that are priced over $8,100 in DFS this week, the player we have selected ranks 2nd worst in this batch of players from inside 150 yards. I will say, the part where the argument of this player not being a good wedge certainly didn't come to fruition at this event last year, they we're able to manufacture their 2nd best week on approach of the entire season at this event.This said, the Shriners last year came in the middle of a 10 tournament span for this player where they gained strokes on approach in every tournament and averaged +4.1 APP per event. This time around, the form with the irons in considerably different in 2023, as this player has actually lost strokes on approach in 3 of their last 4 measured starts on Fantasy National. They clearly are arriving to Vegas this week on a much less stable grounding of iron-play form.Where this player shined last year at this event was with the putter, where he achieved his single best putting performance of last season gaining 6.1 strokes putting on the week. We know the putting variance tends to pendulum back in the other direction, but this coupled with the fact that TPC Summerlin has 18 entirely brand NEW greens this week leads me to further believe in the putting regression possibilities here. Over their last 20 PGA Tour starts, the have average -0.1 strokes gained putting per event, essentially making them a tour average putter, so expecting them to all the sudden gain 5-6 on the greens again this year in unsustainable at best.To recap, we have not seen this player hit a tournament golf shot in nearly 8 weeks. We have statistical data that would indicate short iron wedge play is not a consistent strength of this player. Lastly, we have every reason to believe that we stand to see significant putting regression this week based on what we saw last year at the Shriners. All of this and they guy is projected to be one of, if the not THE highest owned player in DFS for the week!Welcome to chalk bomb season, as we do not recommend clicking this player at ridiculously high ownership with a top end price tag...defending champion or NOT.At nearly 24% projected ownership in DFS, and a salary of a whopping $10,900, Tom Kim...you are the chalk bomb!

The show "Survivor" has been on for over 20 years and the winners prize is still One Million Dollars. I mean what the f, haven't they heard of inflation. I don't know why a toaster would have a setting any higher than 3. People need to get more unique in their Halloween costumes this year. Here's an idea. Dress up like Santa Claus. No one ever does that. I feel like we really missed a good opportunity to use the letter Z in the word Laser. Alright, that’s all I got this week! I hope you enjoy the Shriners Open. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!