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The weather in Vegas is going to be perfect with very little wind. The birdie fest is going to happen and the winning score O/U total is at -22.5. Remember, 15 of the last 20 first round leaders at this event came out of the AM wave. The AM guys get slightly more receptive greens even on days where wind isn't a factor. Keep that in mind for showdown.

As always, final weather thoughts will be discussed tonight in the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pmET and going until...GET IN THERE! 

Noren -153 vs Pendrith +122

Talk about a shocking line, huh? And it opened like this! Pendrith is projected to be one of the most popular players this week at $8.7K while Noren appears to be on nobody's radar but his mama's. Pendrith also opened and remains a dog to Tom Hoge among the market making books. You could argue this course somewhat handcuffs Pendrith's long iron weaponry. It's a wedge fest for everyone. Taking Noren as a sub 10% pivot is enticing. He's coming off a runner up finish last week at the Alfred Dunhill Links in Scotland. Now...that event is far different from this one as it's difficult and not a birdie bonanza, but the T36 at the Fortinet to start the season does look promising for a guy who kind of fell off the wagon towards the end of last season.The large + money bet on the side of Pendrith is enticing if betting H2H's, but in DFS, Noren may be the sharp pivot worth considering.

Harman -136 vs Davis +106

Here's another shocker if you ask me as Cam D opened and remains a heavy dog against Harman on a sharp market making H2H book. Harman's ownership projection as of now is a third of Davis, plus a savings on DK in terms of price.Like Pendrith, it seems that Summerlin will suppress Cam's greatest asset, being distance and long irons. Cam's coming off a MC at the Fortinet and the President's Cup performance was...ok. His record here isn't that bad though with 3/3 made cuts, including 2 top 30s.Harman's made 5/7 cuts at TPC Summerlin with 3 Top 18 finishes in the last 4 years. We don't love that this is his 1st event since the Tour Championship, but the books and H2H bettors don't seem to mind. He's obviously a course fit for a place that rewards strong wedge play and putting.

Fowler -119 vs Detry -111

We're bullish on Detry this season, but is this a good spot for his skill set? Probably less than ideal. Both market making H2H books have Detry as a slight dog to Fowler this week and the bettors agree. You're gonna spend $100 more on Detry on DK, but he's projected around 16% to Fowler's 9 to 10%. But...it's weird that Detry's coming off two strong finishes to open the season, yet a dog to Rick.It kind of feels like you're being a sucker to play Fowler these days, but sometimes the change is a good thing...He's recently parted ways with our buddy, John Tillery, and gone back to Butch Harmon here in Vegas. It probably can't hurt, right? Fowler's coming off his best finish in almost a year, and his second best finish since January of 2020 with his T6 at The Fortinet. He's also got a T4 and T25 here at The Shriners from when he was good back in 2018 and 2015.It's certainly hard to ignore the way Detry's been playing, and the line is close...but if you need an extra dab of leverage in your DFS lineups, maybe dropping down to Rickie isn't as terrible of an idea as it feels.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play.

The bright lights of Las Vegas can do some weird things to people. Some lose their shirt, their house, or worse. Luckily most PGA Tour pros don't pay for their shirts but the stories are out there. Maybe it's the elevation, the desert air, who knows? Regardless, whatever happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas. Unless you do poorly at the Shriners Children's Open.Like most of the Chalk Bomb calls, they are bold. This one is no different. He's the second highest priced player in the field and the 17th ranked golfer in the world (also the 2nd highest). He's coming off back-to-back wins at the Fortinet Championship and a very solid showing at the President's Cup. All of these are more reasons to look at fading this week's Chalk Bomb. Let me give you some more food for thought.I'll start by saying this player has improved quite significantly over the last few years. However, TPC Summerlin has chewed him up. In five tries, he has finished no higher than 30th and has missed four straight cuts. He's the only player in the top range who's lost strokes to the field. In fact, there are only four players with a worse track record over the last five years. The course also had a huge renovation this year and is now rocking the same grass as The Summit Club (just down the road from TPC Summerlin) which hosted The CJ Cup last year. He finished almost DFL (72nd) there too!In the H2H market, he's opened and remains a pretty size-able dog to Sungjae and Cantlay at the 2 sharpest books. And in one of those books, he's even a slight dog to Aaron Wise! It doesn't appear that enough cash has come in on Homa from a H2H bettor side to move the lines at all. While Cantlay and Im are projected to be owned much higher than Max, we'd still just rather eat that chalk or skip the $10K range altogether. The optimal lineup last year at this event had the highest priced player at $9200! Hellllloooooo variance!

At 17% (8th highest) projected ownership, John Maxwell Homa,you are the Chalk Bomb! 

Why is no one ever the right amount of whelmed?Why do we eat the seeds of a sunflower or pumpkin but not an apple or watermelon. And who the f decided to try a sunflower seed in the first place?Speaking of apples. I think a potato is basically a dirt apple. I wonder if the rise in self check-out lines has improved condom usage rates. Using Sugar in the Raw is a prime example of something that isn't healthier for you just because it's natural. Cotton candy is the worst. It's basically an edible cobweb. Alright, that’s all I got for this week. I hope you enjoy the Shriners Children's Open this week in Vegas. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!

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