Shriners 21 Chalk Bomb

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As of writing this at 230pmET on Wednesday, there does appear to be a wave advantage if this forecast for Las Vegas holds. As of now, the PM/AM wave will deal with the slightly windy conditions tomorrow, but avoid the real problems later in the afternoon on Friday. Friday afternoon showing gusts up to 30mph. That will be interesting to go along with sustained winds in the afternoon of 13-18mph.If you fancy a first round leader bet for Thursday or you're looking at Showdown slates, we'd definitely recommend being heavy on the AM wave for Thursday. Thursday afternoon won't be TERRIBLE, but the morning is certainly a safer play. For the full slate on DK or outright betting, having a heavier stack of PM/AM guys may be the play. BUT...keep an eye out later today to see if things change, and if you're playing a bunch of lineups (like more than 20 or so), then it's never a bad idea to have a small percentage stacked the other way, and another portion of lineups that have players from both sides. 

Tringale -173 vs. Wolff +147

The books agree! DB & Pat both loved Tringale again this week on the podcast and for good reason. Yes...he hit some awful shots down the stretch on Sunday to fall short again on notching his first win, but he's still playing SO GOOD right now! He's a massive favorite over Wolff AND he's a favorite over Si Woo at -123 vs +106 according to our favorite sharp book. This is his 8th trip to the Shriners and he arrives in the best form of his career. In 22 events played since January, he's only missed 4 cuts (The Players & PGA Champ among them) with 4 top 10s and 11 top 25s! He checks all the boxes from ball striking to putting and he's at $8.5K on DraftKings with anywhere from 8-12% ownership projected! Wolff is projected around 18% right now! Full send on the hairy armed, tall man!

Koepka -102 vs. Ancer -114

More agreement here with the Tour Junkies as the books appear to believe that Brooks is here for more pleasure than business in Vegas. He's a dog in all 5 of his H2H matchups including this one to Abe Ancer. There aren't many courses or scenarios where Brooks would be a dog to ol' Abe, but it speaks to the demand of TPC Summerlin and the neutralizing power of the long ball. BK is a dog in H2H matchups against Abe, Hovland, Scheffler, Burns and Webber. You can actually nab + money on Brooks against Hovland, Scheffler and Burns...that feels somewhat tempting just given the caliber of player, but we still feel like staying away completely in DFS and outright betting is the best move for Brooksy.

Fowler -127 vs. Willett +109

We wanted to draw attention to this line and more importantly to the mystery that is Rickie Fowler these days. We haven't seen Rickie since a missed cut at The Wyndham after a pretty shitty season. He did show flashes and it does appear that the putter has warmed back up since his T8 performance at the PGA. The question is has the work with swing coach, John Tillery, finally started to click. We're not sure. We are sure that he's been working hard, JT's a great teacher, and TPC Summerlin has been good to him in the past. He's played it 3 times with a MC in 2020 (shocker), a T4 in 2018 and a T25 in 2015. He gained a total of 15.5 strokes putting in those 3 years, but was negative in the T2G category. It's obviously a course he has some fond memories of, but with a winning score predicted around -23...is his form good enough to put up a ton of birdies? Not sure. Not that he has to win at a price of $7.3K on DK...his outright number is 80/1 and top 20 at +330. The books love him over Willett, who's coming off winning the Alfred Dunhill last week. And, they love him over Glover as he opened at -121 over Glover at +104. If you believe in the Top 20 upside with Rickie, he may be worth the savings on DK along with the 7% projected ownership in tournaments.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play.

The CB last week was solid as Cam Davis trunk slammed on Friday. His ownership came out lower than projected, but maybe that's because the CB MOVES LINES BABY!This may be my boldest call of the first 3 weeks of the season as Matt "Woof" is coming off a T17 last week and has a runner up here last year to follow up his T18 from the year before. Clearly, Wolff can handle Vegas. However, I'd argue he arrived here last year hitting the ball MUCH better with his irons and with more consistency week to week. Coming into the Shriners last time out on his way to runner up, Wolff had gained a total of 20.4 strokes with ONLY APPROACH shots in his previous 10 tournaments. That's not including his strokes off the tee with all that distance. Coming into this year's Shriners...he's gained only 3.4 strokes on approach in his last 10 events.His last top 10 on Tour was this event a year ago. He gains the least amount of strokes in windy conditions, and it looks to get blustery this week. He's a high upside guy for sure, and $8.2K is not a bad price, but the stars aren't as aligned for him as they've been in the past coming in as he's had a volatile back half of 2021.Oh...and the sportsbooks have him as a MASSIVE dog to both Tringale and Si Woo Kim (-157 vs +134) while both of them are projected at less ownership. At 18% (6th highest) projected ownership, Matthew Brandyn Woof...you are the Chalk Bomb! 

1. Strokes gained T2G leaders from their last 4 rounds @ TPC Summerlin: 1. Hahn 2. Laird 3. Glover 4. Im 5. Wolff 6. Zalatoris 7. Streb 8. Molinari 9. Piercy 10. Simpson2. Strokes gained putting leaders on bent grass: 1. English 2. Tringale 3. Perez 4. Reed 5. ZJ 6. Kokrak 7. Ancer 8. Kizzire 9. CH3 10. Simpson3. Strokes gained tee to green leaders the last 3 calendar months: 1. Pereira 2. List 3. Norlander 4. Matsuyama 5. Burns 6. Scheffler 7. Bramlett 8. Theegala 9. Im 10. Reavie4. On courses that are 7200-7400 yards, easy scoring and bent greens, your top 10 in total strokes gained are: 1. Niemann 2. ZJ 3. Dahmen 4. Hahn 5. Wolff 6. Leishman 7. Simpson 8. Im 9. Poulter 10. Werenski5. Top 10 JUST strokes gained ball striking on courses that are 7200-7400 yards, easy to hit fairways, & easy scoring: 1. Niemann 2. Wolff 3. Scott 4. Dahmen 5. Ryder 6. Matsuyama 7. Conners 8. Molinari 9. Glover 10. Simpson6. Top 10 in birdies or better gained the last 50 rounds: 1. Hovland 2. Hoffman 3. Burns 4. Koepka 5. Scheffler 6. Kokrak 7. Wise 8. Grillo 9. Kizzire 10. Casey7. Strokes gained on the par 5's will be the most important this week, your top 10 the last 50 rounds: 1. Casey 2. English 3. Scheffler 4. Burns 5. Koepka 6. Oostuizen 7. Kokrak 8. Tringale 9. Matsuyama 10. Mullinax8. Top 10 in GIR's gained the last 12 rounds: 1. Watney 2. Zalatoris 3. Pereira 4. Leishman 5. Hovland 6. Burns 7. Casey 8. Stanley 9. Swafford 10. Simpson9. The two highest approach shot distribution buckets this week are 125-150 & 200+, your top 10 in proximity: 1. Hovland 2. Casey 3. Palmer 4. Hoffman 5. EVR 6. Stanley 7. Grillo 8. Scheffler 9. Ortiz 10. Koepka10. Strokes gained ball striking @ TPC Summerlin all time leaders: 1. Piercy 2. Im 3. Laird 4. Ryder 5. Simpson 6. Koepka 7. Henley 8. Niemann 9. Wolff 10. Moore

Being cursed with bad allergies sucks. Especially here in the south. It’s like the good lord said you know what, I think I will make this person’s body go absolutely haywire at random times and make them feel miserable just for fun. Then, on top of that, I’m gonna be even more of a jerk to some poor souls and add on an allergy to f'in peanuts of all things. So they can’t even enjoy a good PB&J or some boiled peanuts. Hahahahaha! Suck it human. If a friend calls my cell and leaves a voice mail, I’m instantly thinking what the hell is wrong with this person and are we really friends.Why do we still have to carry an actual physical driver’s license? I mean, everything else is digital in this world. No one can figure out how to make those digitally secure also?Why do people “duck” or walk differently in the rain? It’s not like you’re gonna get any less wet.Alright, that’s all I got for this week. I hope you enjoy the Shriners Children’s Open. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome! 

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