View this email in your browser

Click Below for Free Betting & DraftKings Content

At this time, there is no real wave advantage. Winds look like may pick up a bit on Friday in general but no clear advantage has presented itself. There is essentially only a 3 hour window in terms of tee times with only 39 players in the field.

As always, final weather thoughts will be discussed TONIGHT in the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pmET and going until...GET IN THERE! 

Scottie Scheffler -120 ($10,300) vs Xander Schauffele -101 (9,500)

This is an interesting matchup where we have seen reverse line movement at the sharpest market making books. Scottie opened a -126 favorite and the books initially took action on Xander. Most recently, the dollars have come back onto Scottie and he now sits comfortable at -120.There have been whispers that Xander is potentially dealing with an injury that could lessen his chances this week. He was not seen practicing on Monday or Tuesday and withdrew from the Pro-am as well. It's a lot of speculation, but certainly not a positive sign from the Schauffele camp.Scottie on the other hand is a slight favorite in the betting matchup while costing you an extra $800 to play on Draftkings. His projected ownership at the moment on Fantasy National is 14% while Xander is double that at 28%. This is a good spot to fade some DK chalk and play Scottie in the H2H.

Justin Thomas -108 ($9,900) vs. Patrick Cantlay -112 (9,700)

With such a long hiatus from professional golf, I'm putting a little less emphasis on recent form (so many unknowns) and giving a bump up to Course History. Thomas is certainly fond of the Plantation Course, with 2 wins and 3 3rd place finishes in his last 6 starts. He's played more rounds of golf at Kapalua than any other player in the field this week and data golf has his true strokes gained numbers for his career at +2.21 per round!Cantlay is also playing this week in his first tournament where he is not a Titleist staffer. Per Jonathan Wall, he's no longer Team Titleist and is a free agent in the club game. It can be troublesome leaning too much into this stuff, but there is no doubt he's been testing out options trying to figure out what is best. We've seen a history of players taking some time to find a groove with new clubs in the past to start a new season.JT owns this place. Take the dog. Plus, did you see the Cantlay NYE fit...good lord.

Cam Young -122 ($8,800) vs. Collin Morikawa +101 ($9,400)

I'm going to go out on a thin limb and completely fade Morikawa this week in all markets. The bottom line is that if you look at a rundown of players who have won this event, they excel both on and around the greens. Until proven otherwise, both are glaring weaknesses for Morikawa. Per Fantasy National, he ranks in the bottom 5 players in the field in SG: ARG and dead last in putting.Cam is also struggling a bit with the flat stick, but he is top 5 in SG: ARG and he's the 2nd best player in the field OTT to only Rahm. This is a place where he can pound driver without reservations of trouble. Over the last 24 hours, sharps have pushed this line from -114 to -122. I still see a ton of value in the current number, Datagolf has their predictive odds at Cam -140 in this matchup.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

It's a NEW YEAR and time to wipe the slate clean with Chalk Bomb entries! Last season crushed, and now it's time to see if we can back that up once again in 2023 and steer you clear of the chalk that bombs all these other jabroni's lineups!

It's a strange event to start the year, no cut and only 39 players, plus the fact that we've had this hiatus from professional golf so it's difficult to get a real grasp on form. Have these boys been enjoying a few weeks off with the family for the holidays, have they been working their tails off on the range, swing changes, equipment changes, etc.. We have a LOT of variables in the equation this week.

Per DataGolf, only 2 players in the field perform worse than this player in terms of their Strokes Gained baseline versus specifically at the Plantation Course at Kapalua. Throughout his 12 rounds at this event, he's losing almost half a stroke compared to his norm. In the last 5 years, this player has posted only 1 top-20 finish in this limited field event and it was a measly T19 last year. In the last 50 rounds played, this player has putted at a career best level, ranking 2nd out of 39 total players in the field in SG: Putting. That said, if you dig a little deeper, you will find that the majority of those tournaments we're played throughout the Summer and Fall, which rarely present Bermuda Grass to players during that time. When you filter the last 50 rounds played to Bermuda greens, this player drops out of the top half of the field in Putting, ranking 23rd.

Finally, those of us foaming at the mouth for golf content have noticed a few swing videos this week posted by our guy that could be deemed concerning. Some apparent major changes look like they may be taking place, which is confusing given the absolute tear this player was on to finish last year.We're all we're thinking the same thing when pricing got released early, at $9,300 ya boy Milton Pouha was too dang cheap! Beware friends, Fantasy National has him projected around 26% owned and depending on the contest you enter, I think it could be even more than that. If you have kids, you know the holiday break can be a grind at times and we spend the last week counting down the days until they get back in school. Now imagine you have 17 kids like Tony...At 25+% (top 6 highest), Milton Pouha "Tony" Finau, you are the CHALK BOMB!

Who are the people that carry a damn Sharpie in public bathrooms?Over the holidays I was trying to help my mother in law get a new custom driver for her husband. She was trying to do all of it secretly and knows nothing about golf. Anyway, it felt really weird telling her that I needed her to go check his shaft for the flex.How come when you see someone mopping a floor that you find yourself needing to walk over, you walk on it like it’s hot lava? I mean, you can just walk normally.Is the ketchup packet the most wasteful product on the planet? I mean, has anyone used just one?  You get like one teaspoon out of each one. It’s just not even close to enough and you get a bunch of trash from it that’s probably gonna end up falling on your nice new pleated pants. I will say the Chic-Fil-A ketchup packs do set the standard hear. Except when they annoyingly give you 18 packs of ketchup.Alright, that’s all I got for this week. I hope you enjoy the Sentry Tournament of Some Champions in beautiful Hawaii. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!

Forward