Sentry TOC 2023 HP

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If golf research were sexual...you'd be rounding 2nd base after this.

Here are a few key things to know that may not have been covered on the podcast enough. Keep these in mind when narrowing down your bets and/or player pool.

We're BAAAAACCCKKKKKKK!!!!

2023 gets underway at the annual first stop on the PGA Tour Calendar, The Plantation Course at Kapalua for the Sentry Tournament of Champions.

We're now quite familiar with this massive, luxurious property set along the coast of Maui as this is the 25th year in a row that it has hosted winners from the previous season to start the year! It's beautiful, it's compelling, and it's EASY! Last season we saw THREE players break the all-time PGA Tour scoring record for a single tournament.

There are 39 players currently in the field, and the 20-1 to 30-1 range has really been the sweet spot recently for finding outright winners. 5 of the last 8 winners have come within this range, including Cam Smith who was 22-1 last year. 

The fairways of course are take resort course to a whole new level, averaging 46 yards wide! The average green size is also well above the norm with an average of 8,700 sq ft. Historically, the Bermuda Grass greens also run very slow by Tour standards, which given the magnitude, often makes lag putting and 3 putt avoidance a nice stat to factor in this week.

The course measures nearly 7,600 yards but does not play nearly that long. Many of the tee boxes are substantially elevated which provides a downhill runway to grip and rip off the tee. Distance is always an advantage on courses 7,500+ yards, but we've seen accuracy and short game magic play a more important role in recent years. Cam made EVERYTHING last year, but even prior we have seen Harris English, Patrick Reed, Jordan Spieth, and Zach Johnson win in the last 10 years.

Interestingly, per data golf, we see substantial uptick in both really short and really long approach shots. Approach shots from 50-100 yards & 200-250 yards will occur much more frequently as compared to Tour average, while shots from 100-200 yards happen at a far less frequent rate than we will typically see at PGA Tour stops.

I wouldn't worry too much about scores and stats from the Fall swing. By this time, every player has had some time off to rest and reset their swing. Look for players who have a proven track record of flushing their irons and some magic beans on the greens never hurt. 

The wind on the coast occasionally plays a factor when it ratchets up. We'll take a closer look and will relay any potential advantages we see in the Chalk Bomb email.

Top 8 in SG VS Expectation (min 8 rounds) at Plantation Course: Im, Morikawa, Harman, Schauffele, Spieth, Rahm, Reavie, Thomas.

Bottom 8 in SG VS Expectation (min 8 rounds) at Plantation Course: Hovland, Hughes, Finau, Bradley, Matsuyama, Horschel, Stallings, Homa.

DataGolf's optimal DK lineup is Jon Rahm $10,000, Xander Schauffele $9,500, Sungjae Im $8,300, Keegan Bradley $7,500, Aaron Wise $7,400, and Seamus Power $7,200.

2 DFS Sleepers for the Sentry Tournament of [Some] Champions

DB's taken an early look at ownership projections around the DFS space, and he's attempting to sell you on 2 names with upside and high ownership leverage in GPP tournaments on DraftKings and FanDuel.2 Names in 12 Minutes. Click below & see if DB sells ya!

1. Strokes gained OTT leaders from last 36 rounds: 1. Rahm  2. Young  3. Im  4. Scheffler  5. Fitzpatrick  6. Finau  7. Zalatoris  8. Conners  9. List  10. Cantlay2. Strokes gained Putting leaders on bermuda grass last 36 rounds: 1. Burns  2. Hughes  3. Straka  4. Wise  5. Power  6. Horschel  7. Homa  8. Fitzpatrick  9. Zalatoris  10. Im3. Strokes gained ARG leaders past 6 months: 1. Homa  2. Thomas  3. Horschel  4. Henley  5. Rahm  6. Fitz  7. Spieth  8. Hughes  9. Matsuyama  10. Stallings4. With easy scoring conditions and birdie-fests, your top 10 in SG: Total in the last 50 rounds are: 1. Cantlay  2. Rahm  3. Thomas  4. Power  5. Burns  6. Im  7. Conncers  8. Wise  9. Xander  10. Tom Kim5. Top 10 in Proximity to the hole on Approach shots under 100 yards in the last 36 rounds: 1. Cantlay  2. Thomas  3. Xander  4. Henley  5. Svensson  6. Finau  7. Lee  8. Spaun  9. Horschel  10. Morikawa6. Top 10 in Proximity to the hole on Approach shots 200+ yards in the last 36 rounds: 1. Xander  2. Wise  3. Morikawa  4. Im  5. Scott  6. List  7. Young  8. Mullinax7. Top 10 Players with Positive Course Fit Adjustment at the Plantation Course via Datagolf: 1. Theegala  2. Burns  3. Hughes  4. Mullinax  5. Thomas  6. Spieth  7. Brehm  8. Young  9. Power  10. Stallings8. Top 10 in Projected Fantasy Points Total Scoring: 1. Rahm  2. Scheffler  3. Thomas  4. Xander  5. Cantlay  6. Finau  7. Young  8. Im  9. Fitzpatrick  10. Zalatoris9. Top 10 in 3-putt avoidance on slower than normal green surfaces: 1. Harman  2. Lee  3. Burns  4. Theegala  5. Fitz  6. Hoge  7. Rahm  8. Homa  9. Thomas  10. Im10. Top 10 in BOB gained on courses with easy scoring conditions over the last 36 Rounds: 1. Cantlay  2. Thomas  3. Rahm  4. Burns  5. Power  6. Scheffler  7. Young  8. Tom Kim  9. Finau  10. Conners

We ended the year with 5 straight PP Rd 1 plays cashing, and I'm itching to get 2023 started with a dub as well!These BoB matchups are juicy. With Finau, Harman, and Horschel having a considerable advantage over their opponents in not just overall talent, but experience on Kapalua. Experience matters at Kapalua, and these guys win the BoB matchup probably 65 times out of 100 in my opinion. The Sungjae line is the one I'm most concerned about just given Conners talent and ability to go low. However, Sungjae's played great at Kapalua and we certainly trust his putter to convert more than CC.