The Sentry 2024 Chalk 💣

There’s not much in the way of weather to be concerned about this week in Maui. The forecast calls for pretty consistently low winds coming out of the East with some potential for slightly higher gusts on Friday afternoon.

For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pmET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE!

Cameron Young -137 ($8300) vs. Wyndham Clark +107 ($9600)

The 2023 US Open is clearly way in the rearview for oddsmakers as we head into the Sentry. Despite being $1300 cheaper, Cam Young is a heavy H2H favorite over National Champion Wyndham Clark.

Neither has much experience at Kapalua to speak of, but the edge here has to go to Young who is making his second start after finishing T13 here last year. Clark, on the other hand, is making his debut following his first career PGA Tour victories last season.

In terms of ownership, both are expected to come in pretty low according to our Nut Hut projections at around 7-8%, so it might be worth taking the big discount here on the newly-beardless Young….

Collin Morikawa -108 ($9100) vs. Patrick Cantlay -112 ($9900)

There’s some big disagreement between betting odds and DK prices for these two near the top of the board with Morikawa just barely an underdog to Cantlay on the sharp books despite an $800 difference in DFS pricing.

Both have solid history at Kapalua with Cantlay boasting a pair of top-5 finishes in his five starts and Collin’s stretch of four-straight T10s going back to his debut here in 2020. And of course, we all remember his epic meltdown last year that allowed Jon Rahm to claim the title.

The pair makes up two of the top six most-owned players according to our projections, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re close. Cantlay is projected at a chalky 23%, but Morikawa tops the list as the only player projected over 30% with a sky-high 31.28%. It’s an awfully low price on Collin, but you’ll have to get in line to take it.

Cameron Davis -139 ($7100) vs. Sepp Straka +109 ($7800)

Lastly, perhaps the biggest difference in H2H odds and DFS pricing comes in the 7k range where Cam Davis is $700 cheaper as a huge favorite against Sepp Straka in a 72-hole matchup.

Both players have just one prior start at Kapalua. Davis missed last year but finished T10 in 2022, and Straka ended up in a tie for 21st in his maiden appearance in 2023. Each finished strong last fall with multiple top-10 finishes, but Straka has the slight edge on recent form thanks to a solo second at the Hero in his last start.

DFS players seem to agree with the sharps here as our Nut Hut models show Davis is projected at roughly 19% ownership - over triple that of Straka who’s looking at around 7%.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

The New Year is a time for resolutions, fresh starts and new beginnings. So what better time to make my Chalk Bomb debut than while everyone is too focused on failing the 75 Hard challenge to hold me accountable for this advice?

In all seriousness, I really want to get my Chalk Era off to a hot start, but this week was a bit of a struggle. Like the opening tee shot at Augusta, you could say I was a bit shaky over the ball. As good ’ole ‘Zinger used to say before he asked for more money from NBC, “He’s feeling the pressure, Gary!”

With no meaningful recent form to look at, I started first with the course. It’s no secret that without the help of a gusty Hawaiian breeze, the Plantation Course at Kapalua has little to no defense against the elite field the Sentry draws each year. It ranks as the easiest course on TOUR with the average score right around -3 over the last five years. This is due in large part to the relative ease of gaining strokes off the tee. Light rough and wide fairways reward the bombers, but major elevation changes and firm conditions give the shorter players a boost as well. Safe to say this player is toward the longer end of the spectrum.

What about approach play? While it’s always important, the massive greens at Kapalua surrender a whopping 81% GIR percentage, slightly lessening this player’s advantage on approach and completely nullifying his much-improved play around the green.

If the winds stay low and scores do the same, there’s every chance we end up with what defending Sentry champ Jon Rahm lovingly refers to as a ‘POS f*****g putting contest’, and it is on the greens where this player will underperform his lofty DFS price and ownership percentage.

The Chalk Bomb has never finished better than T18 at Kapalua thanks to losing nearly eight strokes putting on these Bermuda greens over his previous three appearances. In fact, his struggles on Bermuda extend even further. According to our data gurus at Bet The Number, this player ranks 40th in the field in SG: Putting over his last 75 rounds on this particular surface.

Lastly, the sharp bettors are on my side in fading this star compared to others in his price range. To get a return on your $10,500 DFS investment, you’re gonna need this player to win or come damn close. But while he’s the second-most expensive option on the board, the sharp books have the Chalk Bomb as a +135 underdog H2H against tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler. Both have similar projected ownership between 24-27%. So while the Norwegian very well may have a great tournament, Scottie is the better value.

That’s why… Viktor Hovland, you are the Chalk Bomb!

Whenever I see a shaving commercial, and they show some slow motion reenactment of what the razor does to a whisker. I’m like, there’s no way that’s what that actually looks like. 

Trash pick up days are clearly defined and published at the beginning of every year. Yet somehow I still have to remind myself almost every other week when trash day is. 

I don’t think people talk enough about how bad grocery store tomatoes are this time of year. Can’t we get some better science going to make them taste the same as summer tomatoes? 

Did you know that coriander is the seed of Cilantro? I had no idea. Anyway, I bet you could come up with a lot of pontificates on various spices. It’s an untapped pontificate market if you ask me.

Alright, that’s all I got this week! I hope you enjoy some whales and the Sentry TOC. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!