Scottish Open Chalb Bomb 2023

View this email in your browser

BIG TIME WEATHER WEEK! See below for the latest report as of Wednesday morning. Friday is the most consequential difference with the wind essentially doubling in the afternoon from Windfinder.For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pmET tonight for our final take on the weather.

Xander Schauffele -114 ($10,400) vs. Viktor Hovland -106 (9,700)

We saw a good, telling bit of line movement early on in this matchup involving the defending Champion Schauffele. The sharp sportsbooks opened him as a -129 favorite before action came in on the underdog Hovland.At one point early this morning the sharps had bet Hovland so much this was down to an even money -110 matchup before action came back in on Xander. It's clear the bettors feel this matchup is pretty even which is intriguing given the $700 price gap in DFS.Ownership on both appears to be pretty equal in the latest Nut Hut Research Center predictions with both players checking in around 15-16% owned. Do you take the savings with Vik or bet on a return to the podium for Xander this week?

Tyrrell Hatton -140 ($9,600) vs. Tommy Fleetwood +115 ($9,400)

Both players in this Head to Head Matchup arrive in quality form and similarly priced on the outright boards and in terms of DFS Salary. However, the matchup market as you can see is riding heavily on the side of Hatton being the favorite.After opening this matchup at -125 for Tyrrell, he has continued to catch steam all the way up to the current price. Both players possess similar skillsets in my opinion and have equally solid form at the Renaissance Club over the past couple of years.Again, both players are projected amongst the higher owned players of the week in DFS at between 17-18% so it's going to come down to who you trust the most in this scenario. DataGolf for reference has Tyrrell the projected favorite but have his predictive odds listed at only -127.

Rasmus Hojgaard -120 ($7,700) vs. Nicolai Hojgaard +100 ($7,300)

Shoutout to the sportsbooks for offering the head to head Brothers matchup this week! We also have a matchup of the Molinari brothers but we are going to look into the Hojgaards for this our final matchup.Interestingly, Nicolai actually opened up the favorite here! That was before the sharp bettors caught wind and bet up Rasmus coming off a win last week at Made in Himmerland. That said, if you look at some of the strokes gained data combined from the PGA Tour and DP World Tour, Nicolai is actually the much better player OTT gaining +.5 strokes per round over his last 24 rounds. Rasmus on the other hand is losing an average of -0.72 per round.With the latest ownership projections it appears like you will be able to catch is slight advantage by playing Nicolai as he is projected around 6.4% for the week. Good luck!

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. After a week off writing the chalk bomb, I'm excited to be back in the captains seat giving you the player that is bound to implode your lineup. Steer clear of this player, just like you hopefully did last time with Austin Eckroat at the Rocket Mortgage who trunkslammed a Friday missed cut. Let's try to back that thing up with another bomb to avoid.The top 75 players from both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour received invites this week to North Berwick, Scotland and The Renaissance Club. Last year was a bit different than we had seen in years past as the weather effected players scores heavily and the course played much tougher. This in inherently always the case on the European coastlines and often times we are left with a significant advantage for a particular wave of players who were dealt the best conditions.Things can obviously change at the drop of the hat, but at this point on Wednesday I would reckon to say the PM/AM wave will be advantageous. Friday afternoon the wind is forecast to nearly double in speed with late afternoon gusts reaching 25 mph. That's our first parameter when looking to find the CB this week, find a player who going to be in the AM/PM wave and may face the toughest course setup.The other nuance here is that the course superintendents are aware the wind will likely pick up and become tough as the day carries on Friday. I would venture to say they will be inclined to place the pins in safer locations for those players in the afternoon, which on the flip side could create generous birdie opportunities for those players going out early in the morning with very little wind, projected below 10 MPH pretty much all morning.From a statistical standpoint, it's hard to truly get a data driven pulse on how wind and weather effects a player. Did you get gusted? Did the wind pickup on holes where you were downwind or into the fan? For me, it comes down to the eye test. Which players appear outside their comfort zone and become easily tilted when the variable weather takes effect. The player I have selected has historically struggled when the conditions get tougher and I would expect that we could see the same this week.On the surface, their recent form looks solid by the numbers. That said, I would argue they have significantly underperformed in their last 3 events. They were once of the most popular favorites at the Travelers who everyone thought would win, they played poorly for 3 days at the US Open at one of their self proclaimed "favorite courses", and finished 30th at the Memorial in a tournament they have dominated over the years. Only one top 10 in those 3 events are a letdown in my opinion given their history and form.I worry a lot about the price point this week. As one of the few players in 5 figure pricing, they rank last in the bunch in SG: Total  and SG; Approach in the bunch over the last 24 rounds played. This to me screams that the other options are the more sound play, and you could do well by avoiding the high end ownership on a player with other noteworthy options circling the same waters with higher potential upside.A top 5 in this tournament last year will certainly yield high ownership, but their Open Championship resume is hardly a good look. They have 1 top 10 in their career that coincides with a 41st and MC within the last 3 years. I think this is a week you can fade this player with some success given how the numbers and finishes have lined up when they play over the pond. Projected at over 18% owned in DFS and $10,200, Patrick Cantlay, hurry the hell up because you are this weeks chalk bomb!

I gotta admit I don’t understand the baking soda thing in refrigerators. I put it in there anyway.Why does it seem like mustard bottle squirters are technologically way ahead of ketchup bottle squirters?It’s impossible to look cool putting eye drops in your eyes.I wonder if Lego has ever made a bald-headed Lego piece. They seem to all have the same hairline.There can’t be that many products out there where manufacturer warnings are disregarded as much as Q-Tips.I wonder if crabs and lobsters think fish are flying.Alright, that’s all I got this week! I hope you enjoy the Scottish Open in beautiful North Berwick. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!