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This is shaping up to be a tough call in North Berwick. Obviously, the easiest hours on the course for the 2 days appear to be in favor of the guys going off early tomorrow. However, that means they have to contend with the most difficult hours over the next 2 days on Friday afternoon. In terms of DFS, we wouldn't go too crazy stacking either side right now, but it may be prudent to stack each wave in 10-20% of your lineups if you mass entry. The wind in Scotland can change, so have some exposure to both sides of the draw to mitigate a complete disaster. But it honestly looks like neither wave will have a significant advantage if the prediction holds true.As always, final weather thoughts will be discussed tonight in the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pmET and going until...GET IN THERE!

I'm riding Keegan til he bucks me. The market making books and H2H bettors are with me and I love it! He's a massive favorite against Homa, after opening as a coin toss. He's also a -117 to -101 favorite over Horschel! 

I've seen Homa projected around 15% while Keegan is staying around 8 or 9%. I see Keegan as clear pivot from Homa and other popular names around him. He's got 3 top 20 finishes in Open Championships to serve as his only tangible links golf experience. But, it's more than Max Homa can say.

You can't deny how well he's played all season, including a T5 at The Players and T7 at the US Open. He's had four top 10s since The Players, and the ball striking leads to plenty of birdies in a scoring fest.

Also...don't look now...but over his last 10 golf tournaments, Keegan has gained 1.4 strokes putting! Has he found something...?

C. Smith -125 vs. Spieth +107

I have mixed feelings on this line because I like both players this week. I can't deny though that the books and H2H bettors don't seem to believe in Spieth this week. He's a dog to Cam, Burns, Willy Z, and Hideki. Spieth's ownership in DFS is hovering around 20% alongside those last 3 guys, but people seem to be passing up on Cam at 14% projected ownership. 

I believe in both of them, but these lines make me feel much better about my Cam Smith love. Cam's a favorite over Morikawa, Hideki, and Sam Burns. Cam certainly seems like a high upside pivot in DFS, but I'm still a Spieth believer. If he truly remains at 20%, then maybe we bet him outright and pound his H2H lines at + money. One key line on Cam Smith is against Fitzpatrick. Smith opened as +132 dog and is now a +106 dog to Fitzpatrick.

But I can certainly say that if I were on the fence with Spieth in DFS this week, the H2H lines and movement would free me up to hop off.

J. Smith -124 vs. Herbert -106ANDMitchell -114 vs. Mito -104

Wanted to drop these 2 lines in here as I see Jordan Smith and Keith Mitchell as 2 high upside pivots in DFS this week. The Mitchell line against Mito has flipped since it opened with love towards Keith. 

Keith is projected around 9 to 10% and Jordan Smith is in the 5 to 7% ball park. But both offer some serious scoring upside given their OTT and APP game.

Jordan leads the DP World Tour in SG: OTT and his form this season has been ridiculous. Just in the year 2022, Jordan Smith has 5 top 10s and ELEVEN top 25s! He finished T24 last week at the Irish Open, T7 at the 2020 Irish and T36 here in 2020.

Keith's got more links experience than you may think, although you can't find it on his profile on the owgr website. He has spent a lot of time in St Andrews over his life as his dad was an R&A member and his sister went to school at St Andrews. Keith's logged many rounds in the home country of golf. Plus, he's playing super well at the moment with 5 top 10s and 8 top 25's in 2022! 

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play.

The Chalk Bomb has been on a mini heater with our last edition leading to a Webb Simpson MC at The Travelers. But this week...This week is harder than Pre Calculus to pick a CB! It's a stacked field and the only guys above $9K with glaring reasons for a fade are not meeting the 15% ownership threshold as of now. Weeks like this, and major championship weeks, can be difficult to take a stand. There are so many good names, and you can't play them all. Or at least you shouldn't.As of now, Fitzpatrick, Morikawa, Cantlay and Hovland appear to be the only guys projected to fall right around 12-15%. Everyone else above $9K are projected to fall between 15-25%. We see many DFS winning lineups each week roster 1 or 2 guys at ownership above 15%, then typically 2 to 3 between 10-15%, and the rest below 10%. Depending on how many lineups you do, and whether they're high stakes or lower stakes public entries, you could plant your flag on maybe 2 to 4 guys above $9K and then pray you hit it up top.I guess for me...as I mail in this CB selection, if I have to pick the first man out for me with a 15%+ ownership projection, it's going to be $11K Jon Rahm. He did play well here last year, and he's got the game for links golf. But...of all the guys around him, he's had the worst year in terms of consistency. The short game has been bad. Rahm is 169th on the PGA TOUR in SG: Around the Green and 69th in SG: Putting in the last 6 months. He's only had 2 top 10s (1 win) since March. As the 2nd highest priced player at $11K in a field full of studs...I'd rather have JT, Fitz, Scheffler, and Morikawa all priced around Rahm AND with lower ownership projections. At +20% (top 3 highest) projected ownership, Jon Rahm Rodriguez,you are the Chalk Bomb! 

I bet when a giraffe gets a sore throat it's excruciating for them. I don't understand why I have to accept cookies on every damn website I go to now. There should be an all time cookie accepting button.  I think you can judge a person by the way they squeeze a tube of toothpaste. Personally I squeeze from the top. I feel like I should be judge poorly for that. The good part of cucumber is the bad part of a watermelon.I don't understand why as a society we just automatically decided chocolate is the opposite of vanilla.With all the new updates to vehicle interior technology over the years, why have automakers still not come up with a built in phone mount? Alright, that’s all I got for this week. I hope you enjoy the Scottish Open this week at the Renaissance Club in in amazing North Berwick Scotland. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!

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