Weak, Yet Interesting Week

DB's Big Balls Betting Card & the 10 Key Stats can be found HERE!

We're into that weird part of a doubly weird wraparound season that's kind of the new 2021 season & kind of still the 2020 season. We've got 2 super weak-field events in a row, then 2 limited but strong field events in a row, an alt field event, then the crescendo of Houston into the November Masters.

If your reading this I probably don't need to sell you on why this week is interesting. It's a really great mix of young up & comers with several blossoming superstars as well as seasoned PGA vets trying to find some form heading into the final major of 2020. With sweet Lou dropping out it makes for some interesting game theory decisions up top which I try to cover in the head to head section. It looks like a ton of ownership is going to be absorbed by 4 of the top 6 highest priced guys. If your playing multiple entries I would make at least a couple lineups with zero of those 4 guys. Without further ado lets jump right in!

(Imagine from DataGolf) We get a no doubt distance course this week. As you can see on a relative basis driving distance has far & away been the most predictive attribute at CC of Jackson. The secret recipe on this course is to let er rip, & roll the rock. Cam Champ in 2019 is kind of the quintessential playbook for success. There's a couple of distinctions to be made though. Because it's a weaker field, we have less 'true' bombers playing. So even though this is a bomb & gouge course, the average driving distance is right at tour average. If you have a driving distance average of greater than 296 yards, that will put you in the top 50% of this 140 man field.  Distance isn't everything though, since 2015, only 7 players have finished in the top 10 & lost strokes putting, and the winner every year has gained AT LEAST 6 strokes putting. To boot 4/6 years the winner has gained 8+ strokes putting.  

Leh Go!

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MATCHUP 1

Scheffler vs. Im

Scheffler -155 vs. Im +132

Like we said up top, the way the pricing plus Lou's WD worked out is going to make for a very interesting game theory decision up top. Scheffler is going to be the super chalk of the week. I've seen him as high as 30%+ and Im at 25%+ making this one of the key decisions. I don't think there's any debating that Scottie is the best player in the field. He's gained strokes off the tee in 14! straight events, he's gained strokes on approach shots in 6 straight, and has gained strokes around the green in 6 of his last 8. The only part of his game that is questionable heading into this week is the putter. Bermuda is far & away his worst putting surface, & he's lost strokes putting in 7 of his last 11 events. For the price difference, he also isn't THAT big of a favorite over most of the top guys...I've seen him as low as -139 against Im which translates into implied odds to win of 58.16%. Scottie has played here twice with a 45th & 16th place finish, he's been really good tee to green both times, but in 2018 he lost an almost impossible 9.4 strokes putting. Im is the more interesting case because his form has largely been shit since the restart, but he did seem to find something starting at the Tour Championship. At the US open he gained his most strokes ball-striking since his win at the Honda, and unlike Scottie, bermuda is far & away his best surface. Im also played well in Jackson last year with a 2nd place finish & gained strokes across the board. 

MATCHUP 2

Munoz vs. Redman

Munoz -127 vs. Redman +108

I thought this line was interesting because Redman is projected to carry about twice the ownership of Munoz ($200 more expensive), yet Munoz is the head to head favorite. It's funny because when you compare their recent form, it looks like a no-brainer to play Doc because his ball-striking is (generally) much better. The biggest difference is around the green play where you can pretty much go ahead & pencil Doc in for negative numbers, while Seabass is generally pretty good. On the whole, it's about a 3 stroke advantage per event which is a huge difference. In Doc's defense though, I think he gets painted as a bad putter when the numbers tell a different story. Yes, he certainly has his bad events, but when you look at his body of work in 2020, he shows lots of flashes of being a very good (albeit streaky) putter. For the last calendar year (or 19 starts of SG data), 10 times he's gained at least 2 strokes putting, and 6 times he's gained at least 3 strokes...bad putters don't do that. Doc has also played his best golf on easy courses (which makes sense when your really bad around the greens). Bermuda isn't his best surface, but considering he's from Raleigh, NC & played at Clemson I would be surprised if it stayed like that for his career. For betting I certainly like Doc at plus money, but would probably lean to Munoz in gpp's for ownership reasons. 

MATCHUP 3

Burns vs. Zalatoris

Burns +136 vs. Zalatoris -160

Here we have another matchup of two very similar priced guys and a decent projected ownership split. Burns is projected to be higher owned yet finds himself as the +136 dog in head to head matchups. Both guys certainly fit the mold of what we're looking for this week, longer hitters that can also roll the rock. Burns ranks 11th in the field in driving distance the last calendar year, and Zalatoris ranks 6th in the field. For Burns the iron play has been streaky all year and is really pretty similar to Doc Redman in regards to his ball-striking skills, poor around the green skills, and good (but streaky) putting. He's made the cut all 3 times he's played at CC of Jackson, with 2 middling finishes & 1 very good finish in which he hit 79% of his greens in reg. If you read the US Open CB you know we've very high on Mr. Zalatoris despite only having 2 starts on the PGA Tour this year. He's been an absolute beast on the Korn Ferry. In his last 12 starts he's *only* finished in the top 10 nine of those times, not to mention his 6th place at the US Open & 8th at Puntacana. Will was always a really great ball striker (& is #1 on the KF Tour by a wide margin), but the real transformation that has taken him to the next level is he went from a terrible putter to a breakeven putter, which is all he needs to be in the hunt week in & week out. I think a good comp would be to imagine if Corey Conners could break even putting most weeks, he'd be a top 10 player in the world. 

Other interesting lines:Garcia -168 vs. Zhang +143Cam Davis -140 vs. Stenson +120Frittelli -132 vs. Reavie +113Scheffler -170 vs. Zalatoris +145Norlander +100 vs. Mitchell -117Lewis -108 vs. Straka -108

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• He's 52nd in the field in par 5 scoring

• He's 121st in the field in strokes gained tee to green

• He's 43rd in the field in DK points scored

• In 2020 he has exactly 1 top 10 in 17 starts

• He's in the bottom 25% of the field in driving distance

• Over his last 12 rounds, he's 57th in the field in GIR's gained

• He's 44th in the field in proximity in the 2 main approach shot buckets

• In his combined 3 appearances at CC of Jackson, he's 88th in the field in GIR's gained

• In 15 strokes gained events in 2020, he's lost strokes tee to green in 12 of those

• This is projected to be his 2nd highest owned week in 2020

At 14.1% actual FNGC LU Gen % (6th highest), Denny McCarthy, you're the Chalk Bomb! 

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

File this in the things Pat does that really annoy DB files. When I get new things, especially electronics, I pretty much just pull them out of the packaging and figure things out as I go. I never read the instructions first. I think it’s a personal gift of just good instincts on how things work. DB thinks It’s the dumbest thing ever.

So, here’s another annoying thing I’ve heard listeners of the show talk about…the clanking sound of Ice in my Yeti Cup. I get it, but let’s take this another direction, how come the brilliant minds at Yeti that can make coolers and cups hold ice for days not come up with a cup that’s not so clanky? I think they need to get on that sooner than later. Perhaps call it the Great Fantastic Yeti Cup, with a zero-clanking guarantee.

Important question here. What is the age cutoff off on being allowed to increase the size of the text font on your phone? Just asking for a friend here. They needed some clarification.

Alright, that's all I got folks! Enjoy the Sanderson Farms & may your screens be green!