Sanderson Chalk Bomb

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The forecast certainly looks more interesting than we thought it would on Monday. Rain looking likely overnight and into the early times tomorrow. Plus the wind is going to be up early in the day on Thursday. We could end up seeing delays on Thursdays that pushes the PM wave back. We could see soft, wet conditions leading to lift, clean and place in the fairways. Friday looks pretty good and no advantage either way. However, we'll be chatting in the Nut Hut later tonight about what we're seeing in weather as there could be an advantage with one wave over another if this forecast holds. If they aren't delayed to start on Thursday, then the PM/AM wave would have the lesser winds and not have to play in the rain. But, even if the AM guys are delayed, the same advantage is true for the PM group.  

Tringale -131 vs. Pereira +108

Whoa Nelly! #MitoHorny is a major dog to TRINGALE! Obviously, Mito has become the DFS darling on the Twitter streets and among the touts for good reason since he burst on the scene this past Summer. He's a ball striking stud and 3x winner on the KFT. The books LOVE Tringale. He's a favorite against Si Woo, Mito, Keegan, HV3, and Davis as of the first lines out on Tuesday morning. But believe it or not...Mito's an underdog out the gate on one of our most trusted books to not just Tringale...but also Keegan and HV3. You can take advantage of some salary relief on DraftKings with all three of those guys over Mito, and I'm still team "hold your nose and fade chalky Mito" in GPPs, but I certainly don't mind jumping on him as a plus number in this H2H as well as having some outright/Top 20 money on him.

Pendrith -131 vs. Stallings +112

Hopefully, you opened and read the Heavy Petting email from yesterday when I gave you some background on Taylor Pendrith, the corked bat Canadian. Our trusted book loves him this week as he's a major favorite H2H against Stallings as well as Chezticle Reavie. It's gotta be the value the linesmakers are placing on distance. Stallings and Reavie both had better finishes than Pendrith at the Fortinet, but Taylor still finished T36 in his rookie season debut. In limited events on the PGA TOUR, he's gained strokes in every category except SG: APP. The irons appear to be his bugaboo. However, you don't finish 5th on the KFT order of merit with shit irons. Taylor's a stud and should have shorter clubs into all of these average size greens than anyone in the field. 

List -148 vs. Piercy +128

Let's address the handsome elephant in the room in Luke List...Pat actually touted him on the show for the first time in quite some time. Our amazing interview with Luke also drops on Thursday or Friday of this week, so we'll see if he gets the podcast bump. On paper, CC of Jackson should fit the profile of a track Luke feels like he can win. It favors length, the greens are average to large, and he actually loves bermuda greens (we discuss this at length in our interview). We know Luke's a captain on Team No Putt, but so was Sergio and so is Cam Champ...both former winners. The books really love him more than I would've guessed over Piercy here in this H2H. He's also a pretty big favorite over Zach Johnson. I checked the Top 20 market, and he's priced at around +350 with a lot of guys in his price range on DraftKings, with the exception of Doug Ghim. Ghim's odds for Top 20 are also +350, but he's $500 more expensive than Luke. Anyway, despite his last few tournaments being rather lackluster...the course does suit him. And, Sergio's form leading up to this event last year was MC, 66, MC, MC...Then again..."Luke never wins anybody money."

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play.

Our CB pick for the Fortinet gets a B- from me given he was $10.5K at 21% ownership and finished T18 in DK Scoring for the week.This is a painful selection for me as I'm a total Cam Davis truther and famously hit him at 150/1 back in the summer for his 1st PGA TOUR victory. I hate to do this but...The languid Aussie is projected around 18% as of Wednesday afternoon at a cost of $9.1K and the 12th highest priced player in the field. Here's the first thing that jumps out at me; since his 6th place finish here last year, he's had just TWO top 10 finishes in 24 events, including his win! TWO! That shocked me.His iron play has certainly tailed off since March and he's having trouble finding fairways. His wedges have also been rather sus. From 75 yards up to 150, he's either breaking even or losing strokes to the field. Obviously, he's gaining strokes on the field with his longer distances as his length allows him to hit shorter irons from farther out, but that sees somewhat nuetralized here at CC of Jackson. This is kind of a wedge fest for most players. His worst putting surface is Bermuda, and these are pure, southern, grainy ass bermuda surfaces.Even more shocking...he's an underdog on our most trusted sportsbook in all 5 of his listed H2H matchups to include: Tringale, Si Woo, HV3, Keegan, and Mito. At 18% (6th highest) projected ownership, Cameron Wade Davis...you are the Chalk Bomb! 

I'm 44 years old and can't whistle. I literally can't make the noise with my mouth. Am I ok?You know what pisses me off...odd numbers. Have you ever been in a super fancy neighborhood or maybe a beach resort where people drive golf carts everywhere, and there are speed limit signs that say 17mph or 19mph...? The hell is wrong with those sign makers/approvers! Just put an even number up there for crying out loud!I can't believe nobody told me that champagne can really sting the hell out of your eyes. https://youtu.be/rMyG1gqVf8U Now you know.  Alright, that’s all I got for this week. Cheers to you and here's to a great week in Jackson for the Sanderson Farms Championship. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green!Bome!

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