This Week's Tour Stop Safeway Open 2019 

"DB's Big Balls Betting Card"

I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes! Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer.After "Shame"us Power came 1 stroke away on Thursday from giving us a 125/1 First Round Leader hit, he completely jizzed his pants on his last 7 holes in round 2 to miss the cut. Other than that, we had a slight Harris English sweat winning outright & Pat hit Sebastian Munoz at 60/1! LFG!We had a caddie in Napa tell us TODAY that the course is firm & fast, it's supposed to get windy, & the greens are hard to hit & hold. He mentioned having guys that can keep it in the fairway, scramble well & putt well on POA. Do with this info what you wish.

Through 2 Weeks: Spent $100 / Won $750 / Up 65 units

First Round LeaderCappelen (200/1)_$3, Percy (100/1)_$5, Redman (100/1)_$5

I especially like betting the triple digit FRL guys since you end up chopping the winnings with ties. Once again, I like the morning guys this week as the wind will be a little less of a factor. It appears to be a tad gusty in the late afternoon and the greens will be stupid slick for the PMers. Cappelen is a pure gut call here. The rookie has made his first 2 cuts on the tour, but with unimpressive finishes. However, the kid can gain a lot of strokes off the tee. If he can get hot for the morning, he can go stupid low. Percy came out last week gaining over 6 strokes on approach on his way to a T11. Finally, the Doc is a young stud that we saw pop in spots last season. He's a tee to green stud where you're just waiting on the week he gets hot with the putter. On the week's he's found the putter, he's contended to win...not just make cuts. He almost won the Quicken last season, and I'm rather bullish on him for the rest of this year.

Outright WinnerPiercy (50/1)_$10, Frittelli (55/1)_$7, Burgoon (60/1)_$7, HV3 (66/1)_$7,Tringale (80/1)_$6

This was tough to narrow down as there are a number of guys I like the numbers on to win, but I'm making myself only spend the $50. This tournament, unlike last week, hasn't produced many triple digit odds to win guys as some of the other Fall events. The field is stronger than the first few events meaning it's a lot tougher to pull the trigger on a young stud looking for his first victory among the likes of JT, Scott, Deki, Moli, and more. Piercy & Frittelli lead it off as former tour winners in solid form and the chops to beat the big boys when playing well. Piercy's ranked 22nd in this field in Ball Striking historically at Silverado. Dylan finished T25 here last year in his first attempt and comes in off a T6 last week. Bronson is striking balls at an elite level right now. He's young and hasn't won on tour, but he's got some serious game. HV3 has won in Australia and come damn close to winning on the PGA Tour. It's only a matter of time. Tringale has heaps of experience here, solid recent form, and top 10 GIR numbers in this field. 

All bets courtesy of MyBookie. Click the photo below for the 100% Deposit Bonus They've taken care of our listeners for over 2 years now. Come Bet with us!

 "Pop the Cork & Let it Breathe" Didn't like em Monday, but like em now

Kevin Na - $9,000 – When I went back this week to look over the field post podcast, Kevin Na was easily the guy that I kept seeing as a potential play I was probably overlooking in my  pre pod research. Not only is he in good form coming off a Top 15 finish at the Greenbrier, but he’s also got pretty good history hear with a 2nd place finish in 2016 and a 7th in 2017. He’s checking boxes as well as far as driving accuracy, Strokes Gained Approach, and Scrambling. At the moment I’m also seeing him projected to be less than 10% owned in DraftKings tournaments which is a good bit less than guys around him like Reavie and Ryan Moore which I think makes him a great pivot play this week. Adam Hadwin- $7,500 – We haven’t seen Mr. Hadwin since the playoffs, and he’s got some spotty history here with 2 straight missed cut’s but I’m throwing all that out the window this week and playing the guy who ranks number 2 in the field in Strokes Gained Putting on Poa greens. We’ve heard from several sources that the greens are very firm and guys who are familiar with and have consistently shown to putt well on Poa are definitely worth a look. I think the price is also right this week for Adam and his game is a great fit for Silverado as he ranks in the top 30 in the field in Strokes Gained Approach, Scrambling, Birdie or Better %, and Fairways Gained. Andrew Landry - $6,700 – And now we get to Landry. The guy I probably miss on the most, and I would be remiss if I didn’t remind everyone he’s missed 2 straight cuts, but with a projected ownership of around 3% and a game that is tailer made for this course, I think he’s worth the risk in a GPP lineup. Andrew is extremely accurate off the tee (10th in the field) and fantastic with his approach game. He’s also show he can finish well on this course as he tied for 7th just a couple years ago. Outside of the guys we mentioned on the pod, if you need another $6K player to fill out your tournament lineups, look no further than Mr. Landry. 

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 "Pontificate with Pat" Random thoughts from Pat

I hate meetings. Unless it’s a meeting at a bar. That’s all I have to say about that.

Speaking of meetings, I’m traveling for work this week and as I’m writing this, late afternoon, ready for a little Tito’s, I was reminded of something in hotel rooms I can’t freakin stand. Why in all that is holy, does the freakin bag they give you for the ice bucket always too small impossible to get around the bucket. It’s ridiculous. Every where I go is like that. Just making a fuckin bigger bag. Am I the only one that’s run into this issue? Can something be done? Is there some secret way to get the bag on there I’m not thinking about? Please help me. 

That’s all I got this week folks, sorry to keep it short, I got another stupid meeting to get too.

1. 

Strokes gained tee to green leaders from last years Safeway:

1. Baddeley 2. Haas 3. Tway 4. List 5. Glover 6. Streelman 7. Ryder 8. Mahan 9. Holmes 10. Moore

2. 

Historical

GIR Leaders at Silverado (min 8 rounds): 

1. Matsuyama 2. Conners 3. Ryder 4. Glover 5. Kizzire 6. Steele 7. Spaun 8. Na 9. Streelman 10. Taylor

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on Poa:

 1.Bae 2. Hossler 3. Kim 4. Ortiz 5. Lovemark 6. Mickelson 7. Brown 8. Snedeker 9. Laird 10. English

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ par 72 courses, poa greens, and short courses...your top 10 in total strokes gained are (min 10 rounds):

1. Snedeker 2. Streelman 3. Mickelson 4. Merritt 5. Lee 6. Im 7. Kizzire 8. Glover 9. Thompson 10. HV3

5.

If I make another custom model w/ JUST strokes gained ball striking on difficult to hit fairways courses that are par 72's your top 10 are:

1. Scott 2. Glover 3. Matsuyama 4. List 5. Steele 6. Vegas 7. Streelman 8. CH3 9. Hoffman 10. Berger

6.

 GIR's gained always backtests well, your top 10 the last 12 rounds:

1. English 2. Grillo 3. Scott 4. Hearn 5. Brehm 6. JT 7. Conners 8. Vegas 9. Harrington 10. Cauley

7.

Strokes gained on the par 5's will be the most important at Silverado, so your top 10 in par 5 strokes gained are:

1. Im 2. Wise 3. Jones 4. Burns 5. Munoz 6. Trahan 7. Clark 8. Bramlett 9. Stanley 10. Haas

8.

The two highest approach shot distribution buckets this week are 125-150 and 200+, so your top 10 in proximity are :

1. HV3 2. Norlander 3. Scott 4. CT Pan 5. Taylor 6. Hadwin 7. Hoge 8. Dahmen 9. Furyk 10. Stuard

9. 

Top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds:

1. Grillo 2. Begas 3. Burgoon 4. Stadler 5. Scott 6. Stuard 7. Campos 8. Brehm 9. Morikawa 10. Moore

10.

Top 10 'bargains' on DK relative to Fanduel pricing :

 1. Frittelli 2. HV3 3. Hoffman 4. Streelman 5. Laird 6. Steele 7. Hadwin 8. Taylor 9. Stanley 10. Tway

Tour Junkies IG Post of the Week 

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