RSM Classic 21 Chalk Bomb

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Given the first 2 days are on 2 different courses, there isn't much of a "wave" to consider. Players go off from 930-1130am both days. Thursday looks perfect all day. Friday is when Sea Island may begin to show her teeth. If you really need a tie breaker between 2 players, I like guys going off as early as possible on Friday. However, if you're comparing one guy going off at 940 and the other at 1010, there's not much of a difference. The main takeaways would be that the wind will be blowing for the last 3 rounds. Target guys that hit it pure with their irons and have seen success in the wind and on coastal tracks. The moderate and "windy AF" strokes gained data on Fantasy National is worth some weight this week it appears.Finally, I stand by what I said on the DFS podcast this week about the 2 courses playing essentially the exact same over the last 2 years. Since then, we've had caddies confirm. Don't get swept up in the course rotations. Play your guys and don't overthink it this week. 

Niemann -107 vs. English -109

This is the line I'm using to bang the drum for English this week. Listen, it's basically an even money line I know...but...English is a favorite in all 5 of his H2H's. This matchup with Niemann is the closest one in odds and price in DFS as Niemann is $400 less. Harris opened at even money with Adam Scott, but the money has come pouring in on him as he's now -122 to +104 over Adam. Then, he's a favorite over Noren, Dahmen and Gooch. Yet...he's only projected around 11% in DFS compared to Niemann, Scott and Gooch at around 15%.

English had a presser today and he said his W/D a few weeks back was largely due to fatigue and some back pain. He mentioned that he feels great, the game feels great, and he's excited about a home game this week. Let's not all forget how awesome he's played over the last 12 months, and as a Sea Island Mafia member, he's worth a look in DFS to gain some ownership leverage + plenty of win equity.

Kirk -116 vs. CH3 -117

This one stood out to me as Kirk is projected to be in the top 8 to 10 highest owned golfers in DFS. I was shocked he wasn't a favorite over CH3, given the lack of recent form from Howell. In Kirk's other H2H, he's barely a favorite against Seamus Power. Power is projected sub 10% and Howell sub 7% in DFS. I've seen Kirk as high as 17 on two trusted sites as of Wednesday afternoon.

Kirk & CH3 are both winners here, but Kirk certainly showed some better form on the PGA TOUR in 2021. Do what you will with this information, but it definitely makes me think twice about playing a somewhat chalky Chris Kirk.

Oostie -118 vs. Simpson -102

Now this is an interesting line. Did you know that Louie has 5 H2H matchups posted against the 5 consensus highest projected owned golfers in this field? And...did you know that when the lines opened, he was the favorite in every one of them? He's currently only a dog to Scheffler and he's a coin toss to Cam Smith.

But, all 5 of the guys are projected between 18-26% in DFS. Louie...projected around 12-14%. I'd say I'm pleasantly surprised at the leverage Louie offers. I'm sure the course history angle plays into why he's a little underowned, but I'm not overly concerned. He's a wonderful ball striker, putter, and he's fantastic in the wind. I'm not sure I'll be betting any H2H's involving him, but I'll for sure be overweight on the field when it comes to my DFS exposure to King Louie.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play.

The Chalk Bomb was nails last week as Brooks didn't play the weekend. We're on a nice run the last 3 tournaments. Let's keep it going with ol' Webber!As I mentioned on the podcast, Webb's only playing in his 14th event since the Masters back in April, and his ball striking and putting has been as spotty as his tournament appearances. He battled injury, he's getting older, and he's a family man. He's known for his course history here with his runner up in 2019, T3 the year before and a 7th in 2013. But the other 3 attempts have gone 37th last year, 36th and 41st. As the 2nd highest priced player on DK and the projected 2nd highest owned, Webb would've returned value in 50% of his past attempts here. That's not exactly amazing odds...even for golf. Plus, in his other 6 attempts, I'd be realistic to think he arrived in far better form.Of note, he's a H2H dog in 3 of his 5 matchups and only favored against Henley and Conners.The caveat to all of this is obviously Sea Island suits Webb in every sense...from the length, to the green surfaces, to the family vibe all over the island. In his presser today, Webb mentioned that he's been working on his game since the CJ Cup 1 month ago. He even mentioned going to see the guru, Butch Harmon. He said he feels great about his game leading up to this week and he's ready to compete. Does that scare me a little more than I was on Monday night during the podcast? Yes.But, it's the last event of 2021, and I'm lettin em hang a little this week since we'll all have forgotten about it by the time you get another CB email in your inbox if he went on to top 5 it! At 24% (2nd highest) projected ownership, James Frederick Webb Simpson...you are the Chalk Bomb! 

Sometimes when I’m eating a bunch of boiled peanuts, I think to myself, I bet there’s a lot of people in this world that will never have a boiled peanut in their entire life. Then I feel sad and sorry for those people. ☹I guess it’s starting to snow in places now. People always seem so amazed about how every snowflake is different. No one ever cares to talk about the fact that all potatoes are unique though.Why do golf carts need that loud beeping sound when you go in reverse? It’s a damn golf cart going maybe 5 mph max speed backwards. It’s not like you’re operating a dump truck or something.I bet attractive people think the world is a lot more polite than it really is. Alright, that’s all I got for this year. I hope you enjoy the RSM Classic in beautiful Sea Island, GA. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!

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