RSM Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

RSM AT SEA ISLAND

Welcome back boys and girls for our last official stop on the PGA tour for the (calendar) year season of 2018. It's been a blast doing this piece for everyone during the season, and I've quite enjoyed all the screen shots of everyone making more money than me. Starting with the Tournament of Champions next year we've got some fresh ideas on content and segments for the Chalk Bomb that I really think you guys will like. If anyone out there has things that they would like to see included each week, or topics to discuss in the opening, questions, questions about some of the poor choices Pat makes in both wardrobe and drink choices, etc. @TRUmav or [email protected] Island is easily in the top 5 courses I've had the pleasure of playing...it's a beautiful setting right on the coast of Georgia island country. The course is short for PGA tour players, BUT there is trouble lurking everywhere. The fairways are tight and littered with bunkers, water comes into play for these guys on probably half the holes (on the Seaside course), but the real trouble is everyone's favorite spot on the golf course, lots and lots of native area. The Plantation course that they only play one round on this week is much easier than the Seaside course, it's a similar layout except with much less water on it. With the Plantation course only being about 7,000 yards most of these guys will eat up the 4 par 5's which showed up in the backtesting. The most positive stat/stats that backested well were strokes gained approach/GIR and bogey avoidance (makes sense) along with birdie or better. Leh Go! 

Head to Head Matchups & Information

Comparing H2H matchups is absolutely critical when trying to understand value between players. Essentially, we look at the H2H matchups posted on MyBookie to see where the books disagree with the DFS pricing in order to find value. Most of the time there are clear differences of opinion that we can take advantage of when it comes to pricing and value. It usually ends up being a great clue as to where the sharp money is landing & what the books are expecting. Let's dig in!

So Webb is the most expensive player in the field this week by $900 and while it's pretty pricey for him I think it's fair. Champ would probably be much closer in head to head pricing if they were only playing on the plantation course, but with distance being a lesser factor this week than most and lots of trouble off the tee, Champ should* have a harder time bombing and gouging this week. Just take a look at the past 5 years of leaderboards and their are very few bombers at the top with lots and lots of Kirk's, Kiz, David Toms types. 

This was one of the more interesting lines to me for several reasons. Yes Glover is more expensive than Cook, but he (Glover) has been playing really well lately hitting no less than 72% of his greens the last 4 events he's played in. The course history angle is interesting as well because Cook is obviously 1 for 1 here, but this would also be a course that you would expect Mr. GIR Glover to have great history at but I would say it's middling at best with 1 top 10 and two missed cuts since 2010. Cook missed his last cut at the Shriners, but played fine tee to green and just had a really lousy short game week. Glover just so happens to be #1 in my course fit model this week which either means he wins or misses the cut.Double ZJ line! I'm sure it's been beat to a pulp this week but he's a local that has a house on Sea Island and has played here a ton. His course history is another head scratcher because the Seaside course was basically built for him. He did finish 8th last year but the previous 3 years he missed the cut, BUT if you take a closer look at his 16' stats, he actually hit 89% of his greens in reg and just 3 putted like every green. So on the Hadley to ZJ line, very clear value on ZJ as he's the head to head fav despite being $1100 cheaper. Henley is somehow the favorite over ZJ (& more expensive)....I'm guessing it's purely course history driven as Henley has 3 straight top 10's here, but my God he's been in poor form the last 4 months. Dating back to the British his BEST finish is 29th....give me ZJ at a plus moneyline every day of the week. Plus theres no bad Mexican water for ZJ to drink!After a long comeback from injury this past year, ole Buddy is finally back and starting to knock the rust off. He's really played pretty solid for as long of a layoff as he had, the only real weakness so far has been keeping the ball in the fairway but it looks like the rest of his game is coming around nicely. A lot of people forget how good he was playing before the car accident... this kid is going to win on tour, its just a matter of time. Both guys are projected to be fairly popular this week, Bud is the clear value being the -130 fav and he's $400 cheaper. Uihlein gets talked about all the time, and I can never really understand why. He had a 3 week stretch in April/May where he finished 5th twice, and never finished higher than 12th the rest of the season. We all need to take a moment to appreciate what Furyk has done the last 3 events (obvi not talking about the Ryder Cup). This guy is averaging 281 yards off the tee, only about 62 yards less than Cameron Champ, yet he's finished 4th and 6th and the missed cut sandwiched in the middle he hit the ball just as well and had a terrible putting week. Every metric is going to tell you to take CH3, and gun to my head I would take the plus moneyline over Furyk, BUT not only is Furyk playing well, he's never finished worse than 11th in three tries here. 

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THE Chalk Bomb

Stats about our boy this week:-Over his last 8 events, he's missed the cut in 5 and finished in 50th or worse in two of the other three-He's lost strokes putting in 4 of his last 5 events-He's lost strokes off the tee in 4 of his last 6 events-He's generally known for his total driving, but he's been below field average in driving distance in 5 of his last 7 events (can't confirm this but a lot of times that's a good clue that the guy is trying to play through an injury)-His price has gone up $2400 since his last event-In 3 of his last 6 events he's been well below the field average for greens hit in regulation-The last time he played here (2016) he finished 10th, but actually lost strokes off the tee and on approach-He's projected to have his highest ownership since JuneOur friends over at FanShareSports.com have our guy projected at 20.6% this week....Russel Henley, your the Chalk Bomb!

Words to Live By and 10 Facts to Live By

1.  Strokes gained tee to green leaders from last years RSM: 1. Cook 2. Spaun 3. Landry 4. ZJ 5. Potter 6. Cauley 7. Taylor 8. Kraft 9. Connors 10. Mullinax2. I made a custom model that is 33% strength of field, 66% GIR, here is the top 10: 1. Streelman 2. List 3. Niemann 4. Connors 5. Glover 6. CT Pan 7. Henry 8. ZJ 9. CH3 10. Cink3. Your top 10 in GIR's hit the last 6 weeks: 1. Cink 2. Furyk 3. Els! 4. CH3 5. Glover 6. Chin 7. Albertson 8. Hadley 9. Henley 10. Mitchell4. Strokes gained putting leaders on Bermuda the last 50 rounds: 1. Webb 2. Kiz 3. Malnati 4. Thompson 5. Gay 6. McDowell 7. McCarthy 8. Blixt 9. W. Kim 10. Langley5. Your top 10 in GIR's hit at Sea Island: 1. Jaeger 2. Svensson 3. Connors 4. Cook 5. Sloan 6. Furyk 7. CT Pan 8. ZJ 9. Campbell 10. Glover6. Top 10 in strokes gained approach the last 12 rounds: 1. Ryder 2. Albertson 3. Hearn 4. Glover 5. Svensson 6. Gooch 7. Rodgers 8. Romero 9. Campbell 10. Henry7. Since we only get total strokes gained data 4 out of the last 5 events your top 10 the last 12 rounds of total strokes gained are: 1. Champ 2. Spaun 3. Glover 4. Simpson 5. McCarthy 6. Lashley 7. Werenski 8. HV3 9. CT Pan 10. Furyk8. According to DataGolf, even though these are short courses, strokes gained off the tee is actually more important here then at the average tour event9. If I make a custom model for course 'fit' this week, & the top 10 is: 1. Glover 2. CT Pan 3. Spaun 4. Webb 5. Hadley 6. Furyk 7. Im 8. Lashley 9. Ryder 10. Champ10. My custom course history model top 10: 1.CT Pan 2. Furyk 3. Webb 4. Henley 5. Kirk 6. Spaun 7. Glover 7. Cook 8. Thompson 9. CH3 10. Streb

Win a FREE M4 Driver!

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