RSM CB 23

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Looks like we are in store for a good bit of wind which does show significant changes throughout the day. This tournament however is of course unique given the 2 course setup and all players are basically playing at the same time, possibly mitigating a normal weather advantage draw that could be deployed.

Russell Henley -147 ($9700) vs. Brian Harman +117 ($10,300)

We start off this week with a big disagreement in price between the DFS salaries and head to head matchup markets. Henley, despite being $600 cheaper on DK, is a large favorite in the H2H here.There are plenty of unknowns here, as neither player has yet to compete in the Fall swing and we last saw them at the Tour Championship in East Lake. You could argue both are coming off career best years and it's worth noting that both are highly familiar with this course. Harman even finished 2nd here last season.There seems to be some disagreement from various sites on the ownership projections this week for each player, although the most common narrative is looking like Henley, the favorite here and cheaper option, may come in about 3-4% less owned than Harman. Definitely worth noting if you want to follow the sharp books action.

Denny McCarthy -115 ($8700) vs. Eric Cole +105 ($9000)

In our second matchup, we have found another matchup where the cheaper DFS option is actually the favorite in head to head. Plenty of action has come in on Denny at the sharp books, as Cole actually opened up this matchup as a -129 favorite before his position now as a plus-money dog.I like the fact the we have seen Cole a good bit this Fall and this will be the first time we see McCarthy since the BMW. His season hit a bit of a rough patch toward the end of last season as he was dealing with a back injury so it's fair to question the reps and prep going into this week as he went through the rehab process during the offseason.Denny could get close to the 20% ownership mark this week and we expect Cole to come in at a much lower number, somewhere around 12%.

Brendan Todd -120 ($8500) vs. Stephan Jaeger +100 ($8800)

In our final matchup, we take a closer look at this one because the odds have actually flipped at the sharper offshore books with Todd now the favorite here. It's possible it could be a slight overreaction to one relatively subpar performance by Jaeger at the WWT in an event which he was basically the 2nd favorite to win.That said, I can see the reasoning why here. It's a perfect course for Todd, a firm member of the Sea Island Mafia. His ability to stack good finishes together lately despite averaging just over 270 yards OTT is pretty incredible that he can keep up with players consistently hitting it 25-30 yards further.That said, we expect many DFS players to see this as well. He could very well be the highest owned player of the week this week and his ownership could nearly double that of Jaeger. It's going to come down to contest selection if you are willing to take on that kind of chalk in DFS. Good luck gang!

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. We we're able to essentially nail down another great Chalk Bomb last week at the Bermuda when we faded Lucas Glover into oblivion. There seems to be a bit of a pattern starting to form where we possibly place too much emphasis on last seasons form given the enhanced time period of the Fall swing and simply not seeing many of these guys play much golf. We'll see if we can put that into action this week as we have a ton of players making their new season debut this week at the RSM. Let's find the Chalk Bomb!First things first, what are the prevailing industry narratives this week that may be being overstated to some degree? I think there are two that stick out to me, the first being that distance is not an advantage here. Spoiler alert, it always is. We have seen a number of different players compete here over the year with varying styles OTT, but that shouldn't overly diminish the impact that smoothing one out there 300+ can have. The other narrative, which I actually normally love, is the whole idea of having to play the Sea Island Boi's. Do I think they hold some sort of advantage this week being more familiar with the course and local conditions, Yes. Do I feel like people may be overplaying this, also Yes. I've found one that I think makes a prime candidate to potentially go full fade on this week...fingers crossed.I mentioned earlier about not clinging on too much if a player had some success last year, we'll its hard to argue this player didn't just post his best career season to date. Is it possible they could be taking a little more advantage of some time off this offseason after a banner year? I believe so. Is there any precedent for this in the past? Yes, in fact you could point back to last season, where this player posted a career win and essentially admitted to the media that he took time to enjoy it with his family and take a breather from the grind of golf right after.The results showed. After posting his win and lifting a trophy, in his next 2 starts, he lost a combined -4.5 strokes on approach and -6.1 strokes T2G, both of which amounted to his worst 3 tournament stretch of the season. These are clear strengths of this player, but a lack of practice and prep will catch up to anybody in this situation.Next, I look for statistical markers that would indicate a regression incoming. The main thing that I look for is a player who has been putting above their baseline standard and hitting it T2G below their baseline standard. This player also falls into this category. The more likely stat to regress is ofcourse the putting as we know, and if it does we could see a big dropoff in his finish position and performance expectations.It's also been a bit of an unusual offseason for the chalk bomb candidate this year. In 2020, he played 6 events during the Fall Swing including the RSM. In 2021, he played in 5 events during the Fall swing including the RSM. Last year in 2022, he played in 4 events during the Fall Swing including the RSM. This year he has played 0 events this Fall. We haven't seen this player tee it up since the Tour Championship where he lost -7.6 strokes T2G and finished 23rd in the 30 man field.Lastly, I mentioned this is the matchup piece earlier in this email, the sharps are definitely fading this player this week. Just follow the money in the head to head markets. They are lining up to take other guys against him and many of which are significantly cheaper prices in DFS. I think this player shows up this week as a chance to knock some dust off the clubs and play one more event to end the year, but I have a hard time wrapping my head around him being here with a full practice workload and preparation that you would like to see as a top contender to win the tournament.Ownership projections are varying quite a bit from site to site this week, but I would expect him to come in between 15-18% owned, especially when people realize and cling to a 2nd place finish he had at this event last year, coupled with the fact that he is the only top ranked OWGR player in the entire field.Sorry I'm not sorry Brian Harman, at $10,300 in DFS, you are the chalk bomb brother! 

Hack golfers that get to play in Pro Ams all of a sudden turn into damn Freddie Couples when they have a caddie carrying a bag for them. They just strut around like a peacock the moment some Evans Scholar picks up their bag for them.A Harris Teeter in a beach town may be the most pretentious grocery store chain in the country.The "extra scoop" of raisins in Raisin Bran cereal is either false advertising or the smallest scoop the people at the Raisin Bran headquarters could find. We need like 10x the raisins in the box! Step your game up RB!Brian Harman's jarringly small for an adult person. But also not a little person by definition. It's really something.Alright, that’s all I got this week! I hope you enjoy the RSM Classic. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!